COOK POLITICAL REPORT: MN-01 TO TOSS-UP
Last week, the Cook Political Report had MN-01 ranked as "Leans Republican".
Today, the Walz-Gutknecht race has been declared a "Toss-Up."
RALLY IN ROCHESTER: STRIB AND PIPRESS
We expect You Tube video to make its way online soon. Newspaper coverage captures the excitement:
Bob Von Sternberg covers the Obamamania:
Obamamania blew into town Monday.
In the midst of a national book tour and not that many days since he said he has "thought about the possibility" of running for president, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama threw his weight behind the candidacies of DFL Senate hopeful Amy Klobuchar and Tim Walz, the party's candidate in the First Congressional District.
"You've got two people who embody what we want in a public servant," he told more than a thousand of the party faithful who jammed a hall at the Mayo Civic Center. "They're diligent, intelligent and humble. They've got the common touch, and that's part of the reason they're doing so well. They feel real, not blow-dried, poll-tested or sound-bited."
The appearance of a national Democrat with Obama's growing star power is the most recent indication that party officials view six-term Republican incumbent Rep. Gil Gutknecht as potentially vulnerable in a year when they are banking on a Democratic sweep.
"This race must be close, because unless the Democrats are strategically stupid, I think nobody would come in here unless they thought it could make a difference," said Chris Gilbert, a political science professor at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter. "It would still be a big upset if the Democrats win here" in the First District.
Although Klobuchar has maintained a commanding lead over Republican Mark Kennedy in recent polls, Obama's appearance could help inoculate her "against one of Kennedy's characteristic fast finishes," Gilbert said.
More evidence of how high both parties view the stakes in the district: On Wednesday appearances are planned by presumptive 2008 presidential aspirants John McCain (for Gutknecht) and John Kerry (for Walz).
But as enthusiastic as the DFLers were for their two candidates, Obama was clearly the biggest draw, attracting the loudest and longest cheers and being mobbed for autographs. Button hawkers were doing a brisk business, selling Obama for President models such as "Superbama" and "Barack to the Future."
Rochester resident Jackie Marquette was sporting one promoting Obama's new book, "The Audacity of Hope."I think he's the real thing," she said. "He stops to think before he answers questions. ... Even though people say he's too young, we have too many old politicians doing the wrong thing."
Although he performed his assigned task of promoting Klobuchar and Walz, Obama also spent a good part of his 20-minute speech gently riffing on the faith-grounded themes of his new book.
He mentioned the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, "not for the sake of cheap sentimentality but because he found the balance between the politics of fear and the politics of hope, which have always been at odds ...
"When we look around our lives, one of the easiest things to do is find refuge in cynicism. It's tempting for all of us to pull back and say the world is what it is and we can't change it. What's hard, what requires risk, boldness and audacity, is to hope."
For their parts, Klobuchar and Walz ran through their issues and sprinkled in a few red-meat one-liners.
"They need a moral compass," Klobuchar said of congressional Republicans. "Their compass points to W, but when I'm in the Senate, I won't follow the Lone Star. I'll be following the North Star."You people have done nothing short of the miraculous," Walz said, noting that Gutknecht once dismissed his candidacy as "irrelevant."He's right. This has never been about myself, but it's about the people of this district."
In the First District, carried twice by President Bush, the parties are spending heavily to fill the cable and broadcast airwaves with ads.
"Walz is on cable all the time," Gilbert said. "Although you might think Gutknecht should cruise, Walz could be the right kind of candidate for these times, with the right message."
The Pioneer Press covered the Rochester rally with Barack Obama, Amy Klobuchar, and Tim Walz. While Laura Bush drew at most 700 a week ago, Obama's rising star drew over a 1000 today, Patrick Condon writes:
With a week and a day until the election and a visit from one of their party's biggest names of the moment, Democrats in Rochester were feeling good Monday.
"I feel a wave forming. I think this is a seminal year for Democrats" said Sharon Vandenorth, a Mayo Clinic employee who joined a huge rally for U.S. Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar and 1st District congressional candidate Tim Walz that featured as the main attraction U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.
The crowd of more than 1,000 Democrats gave Obama a rock star's welcome, reflective of his growing national stature. The senator from Illinois has stoked that interest in recent weeks by admitting that he's considering a presidential run in 2008.
"I need you to knock on doors. I need you to make phone calls. I need you to volunteer," Obama told the crowd. "And if you do that, on November 7th we are going to take America back."
The growing city of Rochester is a linchpin of Democratic hopes in Minnesota this year. Once a Republican stronghold, the DFL Party two years ago unexpectedly picked up several legislative seats and transformed the area into a key swing region. Walz, once considered a long shot against Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht, has in recent weeks surged onto the list of possible Democratic pickups this year.
"The eyes of Minnesota were on Rochester two years ago, when independents and Democrats and moderate Republicans came together and voted for change," Klobuchar said. "You're going to do it again in 2006."
Both Walz and Klobuchar, who's been running ahead of the Republican candidate, U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy, in the polls, hammered on the Bush administration and the Republican-led Congress.
"We have a moral responsibility to leave this country in better shape than we found it," Walz said. "This administration and this Congress have failed to do that."
Vandenorth, who's been door-knocking recently for several local candidates, said voters in the city are responsive to the Democratic message of change. "I'm hearing a lot of undecided and even Republican voters say they're listening to the message of Democratic candidates," she said.
Merl Winter, a recently retired educator who came out for the rally, said he's heard the same sentiment from many friends.
"These are people my age who said they'll be voting a straight Democratic ticket this year," Winter said. "Four years ago, they all called themselves Republicans."
Republicans were quick to criticize the three candidates in the spotlight in Rochester.
Mark Drake, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, said in a news release that Obama, Klobuchar and Walz have "far-left views" that are out of touch with voters in the district. "With their mutual support of tax increases, abortion on demand, and opposition to the marriage amendment, these candidates are three liberal peas in a pod," he said.
Obama, meanwhile, said it's an opportune time for the Democratic Party, with more Americans picking up on what he said is a sense that the country is not headed in the right direction.
"The country is in a different kind of mood than it's been in the last couple election cycles," he said. "There's a seriousness to the voters this time. They are paying attention."
Bill provides his account at The Life Fantastic. Some excerpts:
Two things were apparent from Tim the moment he stepped on stage. First, he is very excited to be doing what he is doing, and second, he is a natural born leader. His poise and energy rang clear in every word of his speech. I have a few quotes (these will actually be closer to paraphrases, but. . .well. . Reference my comment above.)
"On such a beautiful day. . .you've done the most important thing you could, which is to come here to show you have a stake in the future of our country." (I jotted this on an old envelope that I had in my computer bag.)
And the one that got the crowd laughing: "My opponent (Gil) calls himself a budget hawk. (crowd chuckles) Now, when I was a kid, and NASA was sending the first people into space, I called myself and Astronaut, but that didn't make me one" (Laughter laughter laughter)
[snip]
This a great race down in the first. If I could be in Rochester, or Mankato, or Albert Lea or anywhere like that in the coming 8 days, I would. Barack might be the rock star of the Democratic party, but I think Walz rocked-out more. I want this man in Congress and I might just drive down to Rochester again to help make that happen.
NEW MAJORITY REPORT POLL
Jeff Fecke at the Minnesota Monitor takes a look at the latest Majority Report polls Gutknecht 50%--Walz 47%, a gap within the 3.03% margin of error.
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