ROCHESTER-POST BULLETIN: "HOLY SMOKES" SAYS LARRY JACOBS
One of the entertaining things about reading press coverage about the Walz-Gutknecht race has been reading the opinion of experts who repeat the conventional wisdom about the First. The Rochester Post Bulletin's Matt Stolle caught the reaction of one such expert yesterday to new polling data:
A new national poll shows the congressional race between GOP Rep. Gil
Gutknecht and DFL challenger Tim Walz in a statistical dead heat.
The poll called Majority Watch by RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics
shows Gutknecht with a 48 percent to 47 percent lead, with a margin of
error of 3 percent.
If reliable, the numbers would be a "shocker," one state political
observer said, given Gutknecht's record of beating DFL opponents by
more than 20 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 8-10.
"I've got two takes. One is 'holy smokes.' If Gutknecht's race is tied,
Republicans have a lot more trouble than I thought," said Lawrence
Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance
at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs.
But Jacobs added that he was taking the poll "under advisement" and wasn't
yet prepared to "go to the bank on it," because of questions he still
had about the poll's methodology.
The Walz campaign sent out a press statement Thursday, touting the poll as
confirmation that voters in the 1st Congressional District were ready
for a change.
"These results confirm exactly what we''ve been hearing from the people of the
1st Congressional District," said Meredith Salsbery, Walz's
communication directior, in a statement. "Voters in southern Minnesota
believe Congress has the wrong priorities and are ready for a change."
Bryan Anderson, a spokesman for Gutknecht, declined to speculate whether the
poll has validity, but expressed confidence that Gutknecht would
prevail in the Nov. 7 election.
"We know this is a tough climate, and the American people are frustrated,
but the Congressman is confident that people of the First District know
him, like him and will vote to send him back to Washington," Anderson
said.
The
poll also showed DFL candidate Patty Wetterling with a 50 percent to 45
percent lead over Republican candidate Michele Bachmann in the Sixth
Congressional District.
The poll appears to underscore how bleak the national mood has become for Republicans, which control both the House and Senate.
MANKATO FREE PRESS: HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER CAMPAIGNS WITH GUTKNECHT
Mark Fischenich at the Mankato Free Press covered the Gutknecht-Boehner press conference yesterday in "House majority leader campaigns with Gutknecht." Some excerpts:
. . .Boehner said his stop in
Mankato isn’t an indication that national Republican leaders are
concerned about Gutknecht’s race against first-time candidate Tim Walz,
who appears to be the running the most formidable Democratic challenge
to Gutknecht in at least a decade.
Boehner said he was working with other candidates in Iowa and Minnesota.
“While in the neighborhood, why not stop?” Boehner said. “... I think Gil’s running a very good race.”
Gutknecht, a Rochester Republican who is
seeking his seventh term in Congress, noted that Boehner is a friend
and has campaigned for him in previous campaigns, although that was
before he became majority leader.
Despite a growing number of political
analysts predicting that the Democrats will pick up the 15 seats they
need to take control of the House in the Nov. 7 general election —
primarily because of the unpopularity of President Bush, the Iraq war
and the scandal-plagued Congress — Boehner said the GOP will retain the
majority.
Republicans have cut taxes, reformed
pension laws and passed legislation to combat terrorism, Boehner said.
He conceded that congressional leaders have some repair work to do on
Congress’ reputation.
“There are a lot of things we have to do to restore that trust,” he said.
Still, the Ohio Republican deflected any
suggestion that Americans are losing faith in the GOP-controlled House,
which has faced a string of scandals in recent years and has seen few
of its major initiatives enacted into law in the most recent
congressional session.
Recent polls have shown public disapproval
of Congress reaching the levels of 1994 when Gutknecht and dozens of
other Republicans won seats previously held by Democrats, ending that
party’s 40-year run of controlling the House.
[snip]
Before leaving, Boehner
said the big difference between now and 1994 — when a scandal-plagued
Democratic majority was washed out of power by a Republican tidal wave
— is that Democrats aren’t offering a specific legislative plan if
voters give them control of Congress.
“They can’t tell you what they would do if they were in charge,” he said.
Democrats are offering nothing comparable
to the Republicans “Contract with America” — the 1994 pledge to cut
taxes, balance the budget, force Congress to abide by the same laws as
average Americans, vote on imposing term limits and other reforms. They
had a shared vision to offer voters, according to Gutknecht.
“The only thing that unifies Democrats, as far as we can see, is that they will raise taxes,” Gutknecht said.
Walz campaign spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery
said voters need only to look at each candidates’ Web site to see that
Walz is offering much more detailed proposals on a broad range of
issues. And Salsbery said Democrats are offering a better approach than
the Contract with America.
“That didn’t work out so well for them,” she said. “They didn’t keep a lot of their promises.”
In contrast, Democratic candidates will bring grass-roots-generated solutions to the nation’s problems, according to Salsbery.
“Newly elected members of Congress are going to go to Washington and say ‘This what the people want,’” she said.
Truth be told: Salsbery is too kind. Visit the Walz campaign site and read extensive material about Walz's campaign and policy proposals. A visit to the Gutknecht campaign site Thursday revealed a press release touting the scandal-tinged ATF's approval of Gutknecht, attacks against Tim Walz, and the slightest hint of an issues page.
One other difference: The Walz campaign site leads with Tom Hauser's interview with Walz. It was supposed to be a debate. KTSP had partnered with the League of Women Voters to sponsor a televised debate between Walz and Gutknecht. Gutknecht turned the sponsors down.
MANKATO FREE PRESS: PROTESTERS TAKE ISSUE WITH REPUBLICAN POLICIES
In a side article, MFP's Robb Murray reports that "Protesters take issue with Republican policies; Higher education policies, connection to Foley scandal highlight concerns":
While congressmen met privately Thursday with the
College Republicans upstairs, College Democrats waved placards and
passed out protest pamphlets downstairs
A dozen or so students,
lined up in the hallway of Minnesota State University’s Centennial
Student Union, held up signs that read “Family Values” and “Students
for Honest Government” and “Protect your children first, reputations
second.” Others passed out leaflets decrying the large tuition
increases that have hit college students during the last six years.
In general, the group is simply
anti-Republican for all the predictable reasons of an election season.
But this particular gathering had specific reasons to be upset with the
Republican gathering upstairs:
They believe Republican policies on higher
education have strapped students with more debt than any previous
generation of students. They think Gil Gutknecht (one of the
congressmen upstairs, and the man who represents them in Washington) is
out of touch with young people. And they’re not happy at all with the
actions of the fellow who accompanied Gutknecht — Rep. John Boehner,
R-Ohio — whose name has been somewhat prominent in the scandal
surrounding Mark Foley. (Foley is the representative from Florida who
allegedly sent sexually explicit e-mails to male pages working on
Capitol Hill.)
“What (Boehner) represents to a lot of us
is the problem with the Republicans in power,” said senior Colin
Laughlin, a political science major from South Dakota. [there's more]
MANKATO FREE PRESS: POLL SHOWS GUTKNECHT, WALZ IN A DEAD HEAT
Fischenich also covers the new polling results, gathering responses from both camps:
It’s a virtual toss-up in the 1st District
congressional race between Rep. Gil Gutknecht and Mankato school
teacher Tim Walz, according to a survey earlier this week by an
independent national polling project.
Gutknecht, the six-term Republican
incumbent from Rochester, was preferred by 48 percent of the more than
1,000 southern Minnesotans interviewed. Walz, a Democrat making his
first run for elected office, was favored by 47 percent
“Obviously it’s very exciting,” said Walz campaign spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery. “It does confirm our internal polling.”
The poll was conducted Sunday through
Tuesday by Majority Watch, a partnership set up by two independent
polling firms to look at competitive House races nationwide in an
effort to predict which party will win control the House on Nov. 7. A
total of 1,024 likely voters in the 1st District were interviewed in
the automated telephone survey. The margin of error was listed at 3.08
percent.
Gutknecht campaign spokesman Bryan Anderson
said he hadn’t seen the methodology of the poll, which was released
Thursday afternoon.
“With polls, a lot of time the devil’s in the details,” Anderson said.
He was suspicious, however, that the poll
showed Democrat Patty Wetterling leading Republican Michelle Bachman
(50-45 percent) in Minnesota’s 6th District.
“That’s sort of contradictory to everything else we’ve seen,” he said, referring to earlier polls in that race.
There has been a change this week in the
Gutknecht campaign’s characterization of the race. Campaign officials
previously predicted that the contest was not particularly competitive.
“We certainly know this is going to be a tough race,” Anderson said Thursday. “It’s a tough climate (for Republicans).” [emphasis BSP]
Jeepers.
MANKATO FREE PRESS: BOEHNER SAYS HE ACTED APPROPRIATELY IN FOLEY MATTER
In a sidebar article, Fischenich proves he asks the tough questions. We appreciate the end of the article:
After the news broke,
Boehner told the Washington Post that he, after being informed of
inappropriate contact between Foley and the boy, reported it to House
Speaker Dennis Hastert, who assured him “We’re taking care of it.”
Shortly after the Post sought comment from Hastert’s office, Boehner
called the Post back to say he couldn’t recall whether he had talked to
Hastert about the matter.
“I believe I went to the Speaker and told
him,” Boehner said at Thursday’s Mankato press conference. “I did what
I thought I should do.”
A Republican member of the House board that
oversees the page program testified Thursday that House leaders never
told her anything about the problems with Foley. Boehner said that the
reason the information wasn’t shared was because House leaders didn’t
know about the severity of Foley’s conduct.
“I didn’t know anything about this until it broke in the news,” he said.
House Republican leadership at its finest.
Team Gutknecht certainly generated a lot of earned media from this event, though the political maxim: "If you're explaining, you ain't gaining" comes to mind. Contrast the coverage above with stories from Mankato, Winona and Austin about Max Cleland campaigning with Walz on Tuesday.
AUSTIN DAILY HERALD EDITORIAL: EXCITEMENT GROWS AS ELECTION NEARS
The Austin Daily Herald's editorial looks at the mid-term contests in "Excitement grows as elections near":
Most mid-term elections can be humdrum affairs - just another chance to reaffirm support for incumbents.
Not in ‘06.
This
year promises to be an election to shake Washington up, to remind the
American voters that their votes really do make a difference.
With
low support for Republicans in power, Democrats have a chance to make a
sweep that will rival the 1994 “house cleaning” by Republicans, when
many of the GOP legislators facing tight races, including Rep. Gil
Gutknecht, were first elected.
According to an Associated
Press-Pew poll, the level of excitement this year outpaces the level of
excitement at this point in 1994.
The poll indicates that 70
percent of those surveyed said they are talking politics with family
and friends, and 43 percent are debating political issues at work.
U.S.
Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., said during a visit to the Austin Daily
Herald last week that he doesn't sense the anger toward Republicans
that the press has been reported. However, the poll seems to correct
him, indicating that Democrats are far more enthusiastic about this
year's elections than Republicans.
More news and views below the fold.
