A Bluestem Prairie

Washington Post: "Setting the stage for a blow-out"

The Washington post takes a look at the folks making decisions about which races to pick in As Elections Near, Dueling With Dollars: Party Operatives Try To Influence Races.  The battle in the Fighting First turns up in this front page article:

John Lapp, a 35-year-old Democratic strategist in charge of spending $60 million to defeat Republicans, had reason to feel aggressive. Internal party polls late last week showed 30 GOP House incumbents tied or behind.

[snip]

At the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, where Lapp works, officials are more confident than ever that they will win a minimum of 18 seats, three more than they need for a majority, and possibly more than 40 if they catch a bunch of breaks in the remaining nine days. Expectations have evolved from simply winning a majority to setting the stage for a blowout.

The committee recently commissioned polls in almost 20 "bubble districts" that once looked hard to win but now appear within reach. These includes the open seat in Nevada's 2nd District and the one held by Rep. Gil Gutkneckt (R-Minn.). Lapp's team has polls showing Democrats close in all the races.

The MN-01 race is included on the Washington Post's list of 35 contested House races in the Congressional Countdown.   Go sign up at the Walz campaign to help Tim Walz win; volunteers in the GOTV ground game are the key to taking back this seat.

Wall Street Journal: Campaign Cash Clues . . .

. . . reveal a clueless incumbent in Minnesota's First.

Gil Gutknecht recently told an audience in Rochester that the GOP would add four seats to its majority in the House:

Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Tim Walz, introduced Bush.

"As they say on Wall Street, the trend is your friend," he said, referring to national generic congressional polls that have recently showed Democrats' anticipated big majorities shrinking. "One I saw yesterday showed they were only four up. If we're only four down on election day, I've got news for you: We're going to gain seats. Everything's going our way."

Actually, over on Wall Street,  those leftists at the Wall Street Journal are saying something entirely different about GOP chances of hanging on to the House in the free article "Campaign Cash Clues":

In the House, where Democrats need 15 seats to win control, the field continues to worsen for Republicans. Party leaders have been forced to spend in such states as Idaho, which wasn't on anyone's map of contested races at the start of the year. It isn't clear they have the money to sustain such a broad defense through Election Day.

In the first two weeks of October, Republican Party committees spread millions of dollars across 53 House races while Democrats concentrated on 33. The Republican expenditures include eleventh-hour contributions to protect incumbents in New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania and West Virginia who have suddenly seen their races turn more competitive. Overall, Republican committees have spent $45 million on House races.

The Democrats have spent $26 million, almost all of it trying to snatch Republican-held seats. Of the eight races in which Democratic incumbents are facing serious challenges, the Republican committees stopped spending money in four earlier this month, all but ceding them.

The WSJ also takes a look at "Polls and Pundits: How Reliable Are Forecasts?"

NETROOTS
MnPublius offers its take on the Doug Grow column. As Matt advises, go over to the Walz website and help Tim Walz win. 

Saturday Netroots: positive change (and the debt rock)

MINNESOTA CENTRAL: ON BUSH'S ISSUES VOTE WALZ
Somehow, we missed this post on Minnesota Central on Thursday. He begins:

President Bush responded to a question at Wednesday’s (10/25/06) press conference about the upcoming election :

BUSH: “I think the coming election is a referendum on these two things: which party has got the plan that will enable our economy to continue to grow and which party has a plan to protect the American people.”

He said he also will push the unfinished business of his second term -- reforming Social Security, overhauling the tax code and pushing for a broad immigration bill -- and is "more likely to achieve those three objectives with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican-controlled Senate."

The post then conducts a item-by-item review of where Gutknecht stands on these issues. Read the whole thing on Minnesota Central. He concludes:

CONCLUSION : Gutknecht is not running for another term … he’s running for a lifetime appointment. I, and the next generation, cannot afford a Congressman who so clearly uses taxess as a campaign slogan without consideration of our long term financial future. The question is not whether "you can spend your money smarter than the federal government"; the question is "why won't the Congress make others pay their FAIR share?"

I have read the Walz position paper (link) and clearly he gets it.

Eliminate the Democrat or Republican candidate label and it is clear who is the most fiscally responsible candidate.

MINNESOTA CAMPAIGN REPORT: GUTKNECHT STANDS WITH BUSH
Joe Bodell takes a look at how close in "MN-01: Gutknecht Stands with Bush":

At least according to CQ Politics, a non-partisan and generally solid publication. CQ has a new feature showing presidential support scores based on the judgment of CQ editors on dozens of votes in which there was a clear presidential position.

Gil Gutknecht clocks in at 94%, equal with such luminaries in the Republican Culture of Corruption as Richard Pombo (CA-11), Chris Chocola (IN-02), Tom Reynolds (NY-26), and Barbara Cubin (WY-AL), who allegedly told a Libertarian opponent after a debate that if he weren’t restricted to a wheelchair, she would slap him across the face.

As we've noted before, not quite the picture Gutknecht himself tries to paint when talking to the Twin Cities papers. Pay no attention to that president behind the curtain.

NETROOTS ON NEGATIVE ADS
The Wege scolds Wetterling for a negative ad, then notes that there is a proper way to create negative ads:

There is such a thing as a good negative ad, and Tim Walz is benefiting from one being run by VoteVets.org. The ad doesn't exaggerate and there are no actors.

Brian at A Day in the Life sees six political ads in one commercial break in "Only negativity please..." and only one is positive.  Gutknecht's ads are described as "bemoaning."

That may not be good for Gil Gutknecht.  Newsweek reports that negative Republican ads are making voters less likely to vote GOP:

Most worrisome for the GOP? As a wave of negative political ads from both parties takes to the airwaves in the final days before the election, voters so far judge the Republican ads more harshly. Overall, about two-thirds of registered voters say neither parties’ ads have made much difference in how they’re going to vote. Just 9 percent of registered voters who have seen Republican advertisements say the spots make them more likely to vote for Republican candidates; 24 percent say the ads make them less likely. The Democrats seem to turn off fewer voters with their commercials and win more over, but it’s still a wash. Fourteen percent of registered voters say they’re more likely to vote for a Democrat because of the ads they’ve seen; 16 percent say they’re less likely.

NETROOT REACTION TO WALZ ON RED-TO-BLUE LIST
MnPublius explains what it means. Kos thinks  "it's a kick ass class" in The fourth wave of Red to Blue campaigns.  The Hotline's blog notices in The Saturday Brunch.

WALZ REACTION TO RED-TO-BLUE LIST
We just received a press release from the Walz campaign about the candidate's reaction.  A part:

“I’m proud to be a part of the Red to Blue program,” said Walz.  “Inclusion in this program demonstrates not only that the national Democratic party believes my campaign infrastructure and fundraising are more than adequate to run a successful race, but also that our message of positive change is reaching voters across the district.”

About Red to Blue
The Red to Blue program is designed to provide financial and structural aid to the strongest Democratic candidates across the country.  Red to Blue was a proven success in 2004 and has been an unprecedented success in 2006.  So far, Red to Blue has raised more than $15 million for Democratic candidates across the country.  In 2004, the Red to Blue program raised nearly $7.5 million for twenty seven campaigns across the country with an average of more than $250,000 per campaign.  Red to Blue was also responsible for solidifying the structure of over 35 campaigns and making a real difference for Democrats across America.

FACEBOOK GROUP MEMBERS: WALZ  730, GUTKNECHT 58
When current Minnesota College Republican Chair Tyler Sunderman ran for the office earlier this year, he touted using Facebook as an organizing tool:

Operation Facebook.Com

In my tenure as executive director, I have seen the value of Facebook as a recruiting tool. It is literally possible to virtually recruit CRs through this valuable service. For example, Facebook has recently enabled MCRs to contact prospective CRs at MSU-Moorhead, Gustavus, St. Mary’s, and Martin Luther College. We must use Facebook as a political tool as we work to grow our clubs and increase our effectiveness on campus. Facebook will enable us to identify more Republicans, add more CRs to our lists, and communicate with our members. In my political plan for the 2006 election, Facebook will play a key role.

How's that key role working out?  The Minnesota College Republicans Facebook group has 196 members.  College Democrats have 247 Facebook members, and Stand Up Now Minnesota, created for this election, has 259 Facebook members.

In Minnesota's Fighting First, the gap is even greater.  The Tim Walz Facebook group has 730 people signed up, while only 58 signed on with Gutknecht.  BTW, Sunderman created the Gutknecht group. Tim Walz's group was created by students in the First.

On the Facebook Election Pulse, the margin isn't quite as big.  There, Walz only enjoys 71.62% of this unscientific measure's share  compared to Gutknecht's 28.38%.

Looks like a negative patient outcome to the MCR's Operation Facebook.

Stand Up Now Minnesota, on the other hand, looks likes it's having a great time. Today's Strib profiles four young political organizers. In Lydia Vilt's profile we read:

You might say student debt weighs heavily on Lydia Vilt's mind.

She spends many of her days as a campaign volunteer tending to the giant "debt rock" sculpture that has become a fixture at organizing events. The rock, which was made out of a bathtub, chicken wire and lots of papier-mâché, symbolizes the "crushing weight of student debt," explained Vilt, a volunteer with Stand Up Now, a DFL-affiliated group that focuses on college students.

Vilt and other volunteers often take the debt rock with them as they stump for DFL candidates on college campuses. "Students love to get their picture of themselves being crushed by debt and then post it on their Facebook page," she said.

MN-01 local news: the big finish

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTES: MORAL COURAGE AND MINNESOTA NICE TOO
One of our fellow bloggers has pointed out that the Walz-Gutknecht contest has all the qualities of an old Capra movie--though nobody ever accused Tim Walz of having Jimmy Stewart's looks.

Today's letters in the Mankato Free Press echo that perception. First up, Peggy Wild of North Mankato relates a story from one of the summer's parades:

I just wanted to take a minute to share with you a little slice of the everyday, behind-the-scenes side of Tim Walz.

I am one of his “Over-the-Hill” supporters. One hot evening this summer I decided to walk in the Albert Lea parade. I was hot, red-faced and tired by the end of the parade and we all had to walk nearly a mile back to our cars. When the car came to pick up Walz, he looked over at me and offered me his special seat in the car. I refused, but he insisted. He walked the long way back and I was grateful to be able to hitch the ride back to my car.

Just so you all know ...Walz is Minnesota Nice.

A colleague from Mankato West high school, Don Krusemark writes:

I had the pleasure of teaching across the hall from Tim Walz for several years at Mankato West high school. I was able to witness firsthand the positive impact Walz had on the lives of countless young people.

Walz taught with conviction and passion. He encouraged his students to set high goals for themselves.

Walz is creative in his teachings and consistently encouraged his students to be problem solvers. Walz has the ability to connect with people of all ages — both young and old.

We need to ask ourselves if the political status quo is good enough. If not, then a change is needed this November. A change for the better. A change in the name of Walz.

Janesville's Doris Berger is equally impressed by other qualities Walz demonstrates:

I plan to vote for First District Congressional candidate Tim Walz.

Walz can’t change all that’s wrong with the present administration, but he has the moral courage to vote for what’s right. Our wounded veterans are coming home to woefully understaffed hospitals. Gil Gutknecht’s H.R. 328 would allow us to import drugs from Canada (I think about how we can’t afford our own drugs so we have to buy out of country). Gutknecht supports Health Savings Accounts (how does that help families who can barely pay the rent?).

Walz has served his country well as a soldier and a teacher. Now, with your vote, help him serve in Congress.

Gutknecht supporters echo RNCC and Gutknecht attack ads condemning Walz as a liberal. Malcolm Brandt of Madelia explores what that means in "Many liberal ideas of past today's moderate values":

We hear the term “liberal” used in such a derogatory manner so often. I believe the term liberal needs some explaining.

A liberal believes that our lives can and should be better in the future. A conservative believes that things are as good as they can be, except for a few more tax cuts at the top.

Today’s moderate values come from the liberal ideas of the past.

Women can now vote and own property (they are no longer considered to be property). Slavery was once considered proper by a large portion of the country and many of our spiritual leaders said it was moral.

At one time in that past, a person who participated in a cooperative business could be jailed.

In the past, workers who were injured or killed on the job were cast aside like broken machines. Children were purchased from orphanages to work in the low tunnels of coal mines. Do these things bring to mind OSHA and Worker’s Comp and child labor laws?

Social Security and Medicaid have replaced the poor farm where the poor, old and ailing were once warehoused.

At one time education was only for the wealthy, but liberals thought that everyone should have opportunities.

At one time, banks were not safe places to keep your money. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp has changed that.

At one time, many insurance companies and commercial interests could steal from us with no remedy available. The state Attorney General’s Office has given us much needed protection.

Liberals believe that changes, like those above, were based on good moral values. They fought hard for these changes. I’m proud to be a liberal.

On the right? Scare tactics like those expressed in this Nutter letter.

ROCHESTER POST BULLETIN: CANDIDATES PLAN BIG FINISH

Matthew Stolle's article highlights the pull-out-the-stops close in the campaigns in the Rochester area:

Think of the election season as a Thanksgiving dinner. Just when you thought you couldn't handle another serving of turkey or helping of mash potatoes, here comes the pie.

So it is with the last week of the campaign season before the Nov. 7 election.

A bevy of big name political figures, including two possible presidential candidates, a former governor and two constitutional officers, will be crisscrossing Rochester, handing out big slices of campaign pie as the races for state and federal office enter the final week of the campaign season.

The goal: To energize their voters.

[snip]

On Monday, GOP Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer and Auditor Pat Anderson will be the featured speakers at a political rally at the area Republican Party's Victory Office, 1530 Greenview Drive S.W.

• Also that day, Sen. Barack Obama will headline a get-out-the-vote rally for DFL Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar and DFL congressional candidate Tim Walz at Mayo Civic Center, 30 Civic Center Drive Southeast. Doors open at 4:30 p.m. and the program begins at 5 p.m.

The junior senator from Illinois has been the subject of an unusual draft-Obama-for-president campaign. Klobuchar is running against Mark Kennedy and Walz is challenging Rep. Gil Gutknecht.

Barack Obama or Mary Kiffmeyer as the greater draw? Decisions, decisions.

• On Wednesday, U.S. Sen. John McCain will be making campaign stops with Gutknecht and Gov. Tim Pawlenty in Rochester and Mankato. McCain, a Republican from Arizona who piloted the "Straight Talk Express" during his run for president in 2000, is also thought to be considering a run for president. Details of the time and place of the Rochester event will be announced later, aides say.

John Kerry will be in Mankato on Wednesday as well, in a rally at Minnesota State's Bresnan Arena at noon.

• Minnesota humorist and author Garrison Keillor will join Walz for a Get Out the Vote rally Thursday at 5:30 p.m. at Rochester Art Center, 40 Civic Center Drive S.E. Music begins at 5 p.m. A slate of DFL candidates will be present, including Mike Hatch (governor), Lori Swanson (attorney general), Mark Ritchie (secretary of state) and Rebecca Otto (auditor). National recording artist and Austin resident Martin Zellar, formerly of the Gear Daddies, will be the special musical guest.

Tom Scheck at Polinaut notes the Democratic heavyweights coming to campaign in the First.

 

ROCHESTER POST BULLETIN LTES: WALZ, WALZ, WALZ
A recent Strib profile painted Gutknecht as a maverick independent from President Bush's agenda. But the non-partisan CQ Politics notes that Gutknecht voted 94% of the time with the President's agenda in 2006. MN-01 voters notice.

David Barker of Wabasha thinks "Gutknecht's record troublesome":

I read the article about Republican Gil Gutknecht and his Democratic challenger, Tim Walz, running neck to neck according to a recent poll. Having served six terms representing this part of Minnesota, I'm sure he has served well. However, I have seen his voting record since the present person to sit in the Oval Office arrived in 2000. I am very disappointed in Gil Gutknecht's record of overwhelming support of this president's actions, programs, and plans, or lack thereof.

I read the following in the St. Paul paper and I believe it fits the situation, at least as I see it. It is attributed to Albert Einstein. Whether true or not I do not know. "He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice."

As a veteran and former Republican all I can say is that: "If the Republicans remain in control of Congress after this coming election, God help us all."

Andrew Larson of northwest Rochester think that Walz will listen to all sides:

Tim Walz is a person who will represent everyone in southern Minnesota, not just the ultra rich of southern Minnesota.

We need someone in Congress who is willing to listen to everyone's point of view and find the best solution for everyone involved. We can no longer have a person in Congress who will not work toward finding the best solution for everyone in southern Minnesota.

Gil Gutknecht has a history of ignoring the needs of the vast majority of people in southern Minnesota and of not working with Democrats to find a compromise that will benefit everyone.

Walz has been a teacher and a command sergeant major in the Minnesota Army National Guard, where he has had the opportunity to work with people from all backgrounds and interests to find a common goal that everyone can work toward.

Walz is willing to talk to both Democrats and Republicans to find the best solution for everyone in the country.

Mary Foley explains specfically why she thinks Gutknecht wasn't listening in Gutknecht forgets who he serves:

"We were a lot more optimistic than we deserved to be" is a quote credited to Gil Gutknecht from the debates held last week. He was referring to the war in Iraq, and he went on to say "that doesn't mean what we did was the wrong thing."

Can we expect this same reasoning to be applied to the DM&E after it is done rolling through Rochester? Will we be soothed by "we were a lot more optimistic than we deserved to be" when the economy softens or when the environment is damaged or when a train derails? Will we be expected to accept that it wasn't "the wrong thing?"

Hindsight is not going to protect Rochester. We need to recognize the potential hazards now, and work to avoid them.

Gutknecht claims the failure of the DM&E would be worse for Rochester than the coal train project. Why? Economic damage to our vibrant downtown, or the Mayo Clinic, or the University of Minnesota expansion project would surely be more harmful.

Gutknecht has forgotten he is supposed to serve southeast Minnesota, not Washington. Gutknecht should have chosen to honor his self-imposed term limit, and allowed a candidate who is rooted in southeast Minnesota to take his place. We deserve more local concern than what we've been given.

The single letter writer supporting Gutknecht today?  Worried that the Republican base will stay home on election day.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN: DM & E LOAN IS "ABSOLUTELY STUNNING," MONDALE SAYS
The Post-Bulletin reports on a DM & E forum in Mankato that featured both Mondale and David Strom of the Taxpayers League in Mondale: DM&E loan is 'absolutely stunning'

MANKATO -- Only a dysfunctional Congress would allow a U.S. senator to quietly alter legislation to allow a former employer an opportunity to collect a $2.3 billion federal loan, former Vice President Walter Mondale argued Friday at a public forum.

Mondale, also a former senator, said it was "absolutely stunning" that a loan of this size could find its way into a transportation bill without weeks of congressional debate. But he adds that even public dialogue wouldn't have been enough for the Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad.

"I can't imagine it would have passed," Mondale said.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a former DM&E lobbyist, inserted an amendment into the transportation bill that, among other changes, increased the amount of loans from $3.5 billion to $35 billion and emphasized regional railroads like DM&E.

Mondale joined a Mayo Clinic administrator, local community activist and -- notably -- Taxpayers League of Minnesota President David Strom, a conservative who has been critical of Mondale in the past, at the Minnesota State University event.

"I think it's fair to say that over the years we've had fairly substantial policy differences," Strom said after the forum, which was attended by about 115 people. It was organized by the Rochester Coalition's Track the Truth campaign.

Strom said there could be "no debate" that the loan was the product of a "broken political process."  . . .

Doug Grow: I'm Tim Walz and I approved this campaign detour

Tim Walz takes a time out to watch the team he once coached as it plays the cross town rival in a play-off game in Doug Grow's latest's column:

For a couple of hours this afternoon, the campaign of upstart congressional candidate Tim Walz will take a time out.

Politics is important. Then again, this afternoon, Mankato West High School meets Mankato East in a playoff game.

Walz will be there. And he won't be shaking hands during the game. He'll be too intense for that.

"This game is what makes high school football wonderful," said Walz, the former West assistant coach. "This time of year I can smell the grass on the field. I can feel the adrenaline."

To the surprise of most, Walz, a DFLer, finds himself in an adrenaline-bubbling race against Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht that's drawing celebrity pols and national media attention.

Last Sunday, for example, the Los Angeles Times wrapped its front page story about national congressional races around the Gutknecht-Walz First District showdown. The Wall Street Journal and Fox News also have come to southern Minnesota for what they see as a bellwether race.

Next week, John Kerry and Barack Obama will be in the district on Walz's behalf. The Republicans will counter with John McCain.

This is getting bigger than Mankato East versus Mankato West.

There are so many parallels between politics and football, said Walz, who is in the second year of an unpaid leave as a global-geography teacher.

"You have to be prepared; you have to stick to your game plan, and you start by convincing the people around you that it can be done," Walz said.

Interesting point. There aren't too many coaches or pols who, on the eve of the showdown game/election, gather the team around them and say, 'We've got no chance.' "

Walz was seen as a no-chancer when he indicated 18 months ago that he was going to take on Gutknecht, who has breezed through most elections.

But Walz had been in that position before. When he arrived at Mankato from Nebraska in 1996, he became defensive coordinator of a team that was in the midst of hard football times.

In his first season, West didn't score a touchdown until the last game of the season, he said.

By 1999 the team was in the Metrodome, playing for the state championship against Cambridge. With one play left, West was leading 35-28, but Cambridge was just eight yards from a game-tying touchdown.

During the final timeout, Walz said, he raced onto the field to talk to the West defensive unit.

"I think they were expecting me to tell them what to do," he said. "I just said, 'Fellas, this is what we live for! Have fun!' "

The defense held. West was champion.

Despite the stakes in this race, Walz says he is having fun.

"Some commentator was saying, 'The Democrats have the ball on the 3-yard line, first and goal,' " Walz said. " 'If they can't punch it in, it's their own damn fault.' That's exactly right."

But Bryan Anderson, spokesman for the Gutknecht campaign, thinks Walz has been falling back in the last few days.

"I think down here at least, they'd better retake the measurement," Anderson said. "I don't think they're that close to the goal line."

That must be why there's the Gutknecht attack ad is on during every commercial break tonight on Channel 12.  Sure looks like Gutknecht's on the defensive.

Walz in Red to Blue; Gutknecht dragged down

The Dee-Trip (DCCC) just announced that Tim Walz has been moved into the Red to Blue list:

Today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee unveiled, for the first time in committee history, a fourth wave of Democratic congressional candidates that have qualified for the competitive DCCC Red to Blue program. These 17 candidates join the other top Democratic candidates in the country already in the Red to Blue program and Emerging Races list. These latest additions join the other Democratic campaigns that have successfully surpassed demanding fundraising goals and have skillfully and consistently shown the families in their districts that they will fight for them when elected to Congress. The Red to Blue program highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications and strategic support.

The DCCC Emerging Races list is made up of candidates who have taken traditionally non-competitive districts and, through the strength of their campaigns, put themselves in a position to win in November. Red to Blue and Emerging candidates all represent the new direction that American voters are searching for and all have pledged to put the priorities of middle class families first when they get to Washington.

The Swing State Project says:

Netroots candidates are in bold. Wow, can you believe it? We've gotten to the point that the question is no longer which Netroots candidates are receiving DCCC support, but which candidates are not (and, by my count, that number is 2). Now, the main strength of a Red to Blue endorsement lies with the increased level of fundraising that comes with it. It's pretty late in the game for an endorsement like this to give these candidates a huge assist, but it should likely trigger some major donors and allied PACs to get shaking today. It's also more likely that the DCCC will keep some of these races in mind as it decides where to channel its remaining resources this weekend. And lastly, these endorsements are a huge validation to all of these candidates and volunteers who have delivered surprisingly competitive races for the Democratic Party this cycle. This is what momentum looks like, people.

Tim Walz has now topped $41,000 on the ActBlue Netroots candidate page. Give if you can--on Tim Walz's web page, there's a request to help Walz out.  With all the ads being throw at the district, he needs it.  And if you can, volunteer.

The Pioneer Press picks up the AP story we linked to earlier in the week.  We rather think that Tim Walz's campaigning has had something to do with the heat in this race; it's not just "Gutknecht dragged down by GOP woes."

Jeepers, and N.D. Barrett at Orange Penny Loafers had just decided that Gil Gutknecht is his hero.

Mid-afternoon update: Appealing to the base

Minnesota Public Radio looks at Minnesota Republicans' new focus on immigration as a means to fire up its base:

The candidates say they're highlighting the differences between themselves and their Democratic opponents. But the results of a recent poll suggest Republicans are also trying to motivate their core supporters. . . .

The poll is from the Pew Center:

The most recent poll, released from the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, says illegal immigration is also one of the top issues among rank and file Republicans and is tied for the top issue among conservative Republicans.

Pew has been polling voters in the 40 most competitive congressional districts in the nation, including Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. Pew pollster Carroll Doherty says GOP candidates nationwide are running ads on immigration to stir the passions of their core supporters.

"At this stage in the campaign, that's what the candidates and the campaigns are doing," Doherty said. "They're focusing all of their efforts on getting out their own supports. And it's clear that there's a great deal of intensity on this issue in the Republican base."

Doherty says Pew's polling finds that most people want to see a comprehensive immigration policy, not just a policy that focuses on border security and illegal immigration -- two key themes for Republicans.

That has given Democrats ammunition to return fire on the immigration issue. Mike Hatch started running an ad criticizing Pawlenty on illegal immigration just hours after Pawlenty's ad hit the airwaves. Democrat Tim Walz, who's running against Republican Congressman Gil Gutknecht in the 1st Congressional District, also started running an ad criticizing Gutknecht for his record on immigration. Even though he's spending money on the issue, Walz says immigration is not the most important concern among Democrats and independents.

"The war in Iraq is the core issue," Walz said. "The mismanagement of government is the core issue. Health care is a core issue. Immigration is one that needs to be dealt with but that group of people, my group that I'm resonating with, knows that this is nothing more than election year posturing by my opponent.

Democratic strategists have also encouraged their candidates to remind Republicans that the alleged explosion on illegal immigration has occurred on the GOP's watch. Groups representing immigrants in Minnesota say they're disappointed that both parties are placing so much emphasis on the immigration issue.

KARE-11: BIG HITTERS CAMPAIGNING FOR GUTKNECHT AND WALZ
KARE-11 spreads the news of the dogfight in the district:

More signs that Minnesota's First District congressional race is among the hottest in the nation.

Some big names are coming in next week during the final week before the November 7 elections.

Incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht's campaign has announced that Arizona Senator John McCain - who's already scheduled to come to Minnesota next Wednesday in support of Governor Pawlenty's campaign - has added stops for Gutknecht in Mankato and Rochester.

Democratic challenger Tim Walz, meanwhile, has a rally scheduled Monday in Rochester with Illinois Senator Barack Obama, who's also stumping for DFL Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar.

On Wednesday, Walz's campaign is bringing in Senator John Kerry - the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee - for a rally at Minnesota State University in Mankato.

LAVENDER: CRAMMING FOR THE MID-TERM
Lavender reviews candidates' stand on GLBT issues; here's its take on Walz:

In the First District Congressional race, Democrat Tim Walz has taken an all-out political beating from the GOP, based almost entirely on his record of standing up for the GLBT community. Recent polls show him in a dead heat with his opponent, incumbent Representative Gil Gutknecht, a Republican who is decidedly against same-sex marriage.

Given the recent GOP attacks misrepresenting Walz's positions on taxes and immigration, guess this earlier obsession didn't get much traction.

And someone heard the word: Subtle push polling in the 1st?

On his blog and no one heard a word, Albert Lea singer-songwriter Jeshua Erickson wonders if push polling is taking place:

About an hour ago I got off the phone with a pollster from “Midwest Research” who asked me a series of legitimate questions about how I was most likely to vote this November 7. Specifically, the pollster wanted to know whether I was more likely to vote for Tim Walz (DFL) or Gil Gutknecht (R). (Both are running for U.S. Congress in Minnesota’s first district.)

There was one issues based question at the very end of the poll. It went something like this: “Given that North Korea now has nuclear weapons now and Tim Walz is not in support of missile defense legislation, would you be more likely to vote for Tim Walz or Gil Gutknecht.” I had to think for a second, flustered that an objective pollster would phrase a question that way. 

“Tim Walz,” I said.

I’m guessing that “Midwest Research” was hired by a conservative special interest group. But I really have no way of knowing who was behind it. Next time, I’ll ask more questions of the pollster to find out more about “Midwest Research.” Fear mongering at it’s finest.

This could be message testing, though it is a bit late in the game.

Friday Morning: MN-01 race a coin flip?

HOUSTON COUNTY NEWS LTE: WE CAN DO BETTER THAN GUTKNECHT
Chuck Chihak of LaCrescent thinks that people in the First deserve better:

I’m surprised Mr. Gutknecht is running for Congress again.  Twelve years ago he expressed disgust with career politicians and vowed to serve no more than 12 years.  Having broken his word, he also recently tried to quietly eliminate evidence of that pledge off a website carrying his biography.  So we now know he’s already a career politician, he lies, breaks his word and is sneaky.  He also has his fingerprints all over a $9 trillion budget deficit, a failed policy in Iraq and over 4 million American jobs shipped overseas while middle class buying power shrinks and the rich get tax breaks. He’s obviously part of the problem in Washington.  Let’s help him keep that pledge of no more than 12 years in Congress. We can do a lot better than Gil Gutknecht.

Charlie Warner, the editor of the Houston county News, writes that "An avalanche of letters is healthy." We agree.

KTTC: GUTKNECHT AND WALZ DEBATE
Yet even more debating:

Nationwide focus is on a congressional on a race by both political parties
 
While US house candidates Gil Gutknecht and Tim Walz, they agree on what the big issues are for this election.
 
They differ when it comes to ways for fixing them.
 
With a flip of a coin, each candidate has a 50-50 chance to speak first or last in a debate and according to recent voting polls, the odds in the District 1 House race could come down to just that, a coin flip.
 
In the red corner, Republican candidate Representative Gil Gutknecht.  In the blue corner DFL candidate  Tim Walz.  [read more]

NETROOTS
Craig's Sit notes that Tim Still on a Roll.  Vox Verax takes A Closer Look at MN 1 and finds Big doin's in Minnesota's 1st CD.  Midwest Values PAC blogs about the new veterans ad in VoteVets.org Releases Anti-Gutknecht Ad.

Finally, a couple of articles from the  national press aren't directly about the Fighting First, but do relate to issues in the campaigns.

CQ POLITICS: IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID? NOT THIS TIME
An interesting discussion of why the Republicans' attempt to save themselves by campaigning on the economy isn't working.  Guess it's back to Iraq for Minnesota Republicans--a move that's kinda awkward for Gutknecht.  Gutknecht's reduced to distorting Walz's immigration plan.

NEW YORK TIMES ECONOMIX: RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE
Gil Gutknechts' votes against raising the minimum wage have been an issue throughout the campaign. Conservatives like to paint proposals to raise the minimum wage as job killers. But recent data suggests that position doesn't hold up:

Ten years have passed since Congress last voted to raise the minimum wage, and it has drifted down to a 50-year low in inflation-adjusted terms, about a third lower than it was at its peak in the late 1960’s. In 1968, an hour’s worth of minimum wage work bought almost five gallons of gas. Today, it buys less than three gallons.

Every time the issue has come up in Congress or in the states, opponents have raised the same specter of mass unemployment that was part of the fight over Social Security. . . .

[snip]

Yet such arguments seem to be falling flat with voters. A recent poll in Colorado shows 69 percent supporting the measure there, and only 26 percent opposed. In the other five states, the initiatives have similarly big leads, if the polls are to be believed. Already, 21 states have minimum wages higher than $5.15.

I think there are two main reasons for the enormous popularity of the proposals. By now, many people probably understand that the dire predictions about higher minimum wages don’t come true. In the 10 years since Congress raised the minimum wage, crime didn’t become an epic problem, as Mr. Brown forecast. Instead, it has fallen sharply.

In fact, modest rises in the minimum wage don’t even appear to kill many jobs. The recent state increases have created a series of natural experiments for researchers to study, and they have generally found that modest changes have only minor effects on employment levels. Some have found no net effect. Higher wages may end up lifting employee morale and reducing turnover, making business more productive and mitigating some of the higher labor costs.

As Alan S. Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, says, “What’s changed in the last 10 to 15 years is an accumulation of pretty convincing evidence that the employment problem is not very significant.”

[snip]

The second big cause of the proposals’ popularity stems in all likelihood from the rise of income inequality. The American economy has done so well at creating jobs in recent decades that almost anybody who wants work can find it. The problem is that too many jobs still don’t pay a decent living. . . .

WASHINGTON POST: THE YEAR OF PLAYING DIRTIER
The Washington Post takes a look at the way in which political ads are getting "positively surreal" across the country:

On the brink of what could be a power-shifting election, it is kitchen-sink time: Desperate candidates are throwing everything. While negative campaigning is a tradition in American politics, this year's version in many races has an eccentric shade, filled with allegations of moral bankruptcy and sexual perversion.

At the same time, the growth of "independent expenditures" by national parties and other groups has allowed candidates to distance themselves from distasteful attacks on their opponents, while blogs and YouTube have provided free distribution networks for eye-catching hatchet jobs.

"When the news is bad, the ads tend to be negative," said Shanto Iyengar, a Stanford professor who studies political advertising. "And the more negative the ad, the more likely it is to get free media coverage. So there's a big incentive to go to the extremes."

The result has been a carnival of ugly, especially on the GOP side, where operatives are trying to counter what polls show is a hostile political environment by casting opponents as fatally flawed characters. The National Republican Campaign Committee is spending more than 90 percent of its advertising budget on negative ads, according to GOP operatives, and the rest of the party seems to be following suit.

How much ugliness will be brought to Minnesota's Fighting First? 

A busy day ahead, but we'll try to post as time permits.

AP: Walz outraises Gutknecht--again!

Via the Pioneer Press, the AP reports tonight that Tim Walz outraised Gil Gutknecht in the period Oct. 1 through Oct 18, $110,000 to $88,000.  Gutknecht still leads $305,000 to $179,000 in cash on hand, but that margin has been cut to less than 2-to-1.

Contribute directly to the Walz campaign or via the ActBlue Netroots Candidate page to cut that margin even more.

Some campaign events for next week:

Monday: U.S. Congressional Candidate Tim Walz and U.S. Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar will join U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) to lead a “Get Out the Vote” (GOTV) rally

Monday, October 30th, 2006 at 5:00 PM.
Mayo Civic Center Auditorium
30 Civic Center Drive S.E.
Rochester, MN

Wednesday: U.S. Senator John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) will join Congressional Candidate Tim Walz for a GOTV rally in Mankato on Wednesday, November 1st, 2006 at noon.   Kerry is campaigning across the country for Walz and other “Fighting Dems.”

Doors open at 11am
Music with Martin Zellar begins at 11:15am
Rally begins at noon
Bresnan Arena in the Taylor Center
Minnesota State University-Mankato
Corner of Warren and Stadium Road
Mankato,MN

Thursday: Minnesota radio superstar Garrison Keillor and musician Martin Zellar will join DFL Congressional Candidate Tim Walz, DFL Candidates Mike Hatch, Lori Swanson, Mark Ritchie and Rebecca Otto for a GOTV rally

Thursday, November 2nd, 2006 at 5pm.   
Music begins at 5pm
Rally begins at 5:30pm
Rochester Art Center
40 Civic Center Drive SE
Rochester, MN

NPR: Poll Shows Rural Voters Shifting to Democrats

Recent polling in rural America shows a shift from red to blue in the heartland according to Poll Shows Rural Voters Shifting to Democrats: 

Twelve days before the midterm elections, Republican congressional incumbents are struggling to corral a key voter group -- rural residents. A new bipartisan poll indicates that Democrats now dominate rural voters, a critical part of the Republican base.

The poll was conducted for the non-partisan Center for Rural Strategies, a Kentucky group working to attract attention to rural issues.

Five hundred likely rural voters were surveyed in 41 heavily contested congressional districts and six states with close Senate races. Most of the House districts surveyed have Republican incumbents. Fifty-two per cent of the respondents indicate they'll vote for Democratic congressional candidates; 39 percent say they'll support Republicans.

This is a dramatic shift from a similar poll conducted last month. At that time, the rural voters polled split the congressional vote evenly.

"This is not encouraging information for Republicans," says Bill Greener, the Republican political consultant who supervised and analyzed the bipartisan poll. "And I think that to pretend otherwise is not helpful."

A Less Enthusiastic GOP Base

Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg conducted the telephone survey Sunday through Tuesday of this week.

"Rural voters tend to be a core electorate for Republicans and they need their base voters to turn out and turn out big for them if they are going to stay in this race," Greenberg says.

She notes that the poll found Democrats more enthusiastic about supporting their candidates. 

"The fact that rural voters are trending Democrat and we're seeing less enthusiasm among Republicans in rural areas is not good news for Republicans."

The survey detected an eight-point shift in party preference for Senate candidates. Rural voters in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota and Tennessee indicated they favored Democratic candidates 47 percent to 43 percent. That reverses the results in a similar poll last month. [there's more]

Star Tribune: VoteVets ad called "grenade"

The Strib reports on the VoteVets ad in "New First District TV ad brings Iraq vet into the fray":

A grenade in the form of a new TV ad was rolled into the competitive First Congressional District race Thursday.

The ad shows an Iraq war veteran speaking: "When I got home, I found out Republican Congressman Gil Gutknecht voted to increase his pay while voting to cut health care benefits for veterans like me.

"That may make sense from where he sits in Congress, but not from where I'm sitting," says the veteran, Tomas Young of Kansas City, Mo. The camera pulls back to show him sitting in a wheelchair.

The ad makes points raised earlier by Gutknecht's Democratic challenger, Mankato teacher and National Guard veteran Tim Walz, but was produced by an independent political action committee based in New York, VoteVets.org. The organization based its accusation on two Democratic amendments Gutknecht voted against on March 17, 2005, that would have increased the budget of the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Gutknecht spokesman Bryan Anderson said the annual budget for veterans' medical care has doubled, with Gutknecht's support, since he first went to Congress in 1994.

Both parties are parachuting star power into the southern Minnesota district. First Lady Laura Bush stumped for Gutknecht Wednesday and Arizona Sen. John McCain is tentatively scheduled to do so next week. Democratic Sens. John Kerry and Barack Obama plan to hold rallies for Walz.

What's Gutknecht's record on veterans' issues? Minnesota Monitor took a look.

Here's the ad again:

New Tim Walz Ad: "3000" ; New Roll Call article

The latest Tim Walz ad, "3000" is up at YouTube:

OLLIE OX UPDATE: Word has just come in that the St. Peter Herald has endorsed Tim Walz.

ROLL CALL: RESOURCES CONVERGE ON GUTKNECHT SEAT
A new Roll Call article tells the expense of campaigns for a congressional seat newly in play:

Resources Converge on Gutknecht Seat October 26, 2006 By Matthew Murray, Roll Call Staff Campaign money from the rest of the country continued to pour into Minnesota's 1st district Wednesday, feeding a cash burn that shows no sign of subsiding in the final days of an emblematic House contest.

"The playing field for Democrats has definitely widened in recent weeks," said one Democrat familiar with the spending plans of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The race between six-term Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.) and Democratic challenger Tim Walz, a high school geography teacher, "is a prime example how the field has expanded for Democrats."

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, labor unions and other groups have dumped more than $500,000 on direct mail and broadcast advertising into the district in recent weeks, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Though it was once considered a solid Republican seat, the Walz-Gutknecht race was destined to have a turnaround, analysts said. Although Gutknecht won with healthy margins in 2002 and 2004, President Bush carried the district twice by narrow margins. With independents garnering 6 percent of the vote in 2000, Bush beat former Vice President Al Gore with 49 percent of the vote.

Lynn Wilson, chairwoman of the Olmsted County, Minn., Democratic- Farmer-Labor Party, said the groundwork for defeating Gutknecht began 10 years ago. Gutknecht, then in his first term, eked out a win against Mary Rieder (D), a local university professor. He faced Rieder again in 2000, trouncing her by nearly 15 percentage points.

But Walz has played political small-ball since he announced his candidacy in February and his popularity with voters has grown, Wilson said. Combined with a dislike for how the war in Iraq is proceeding, "it's perfect timing." The potential for supporting a Democrat in the 1st district has "always been here," Wilson said. "It just had to be worked."

Wilson said the president's unpopularity in the region was apparent Wednesday with the GOP's choice of fundraisers: first lady Laura Bush. "She was chosen because her favorable rating doubles her husband's," she said.

Walz appears to have benefited the most financially from the recent national spotlight pointed at the race. Although individual fundraising totals are current only as of Sept. 30, independent expenditures reported to the Federal Election Commission by party committees and other outside organizations are updated daily.

Since Oct. 13, the Service Employees International Union has spent about $45,000 on direct mail and radio and television spots supporting Walz. On Oct. 23, the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees spent more than $200,000 on television advertising opposing Gutknecht. During the past week, the DCCC has spent about $150,000 on ads opposing Gutknecht.

The NRCC has spent more than $150,000 on ads and phone banks for Gutknecht. The National Right to Life political action committee spent more than $3,000 on radio ads for Gutknecht.

Walz's campaign also confirmed that on Wednesday the Democrat was included in a mass appeal by former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Sponsored by MoveOn.org, the e-mail asked for support for roughly 10 candidates. By late Wednesday, the group claimed to have raised about $1.3 million, but it declined to indicate how much was raised specifically for Walz.

Walz - a retired National Guardsman who is a graduate of the liberal "Camp Wellstone" political training program, named in honor of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.) - had about $290,000 on hand through Sept. 30. Gutknecht had about $800,000.

While Democrats are enjoying a boost in the 1st district, GOP strategists said the incumbent has a few aces in its pocket: illegal immigration and the economy, both of which resonate in the district.

Although the NRCC declined to discuss campaign strategy, it appeared likely
that the two issues will figure prominently in the waning hours of the Gutknecht re-election campaign.

"Tim Walz is being defined as someone who wants to raise taxes and make amnesty [for illegal immigrants] the law of the land," said Ed Patru, a spokesman for the NRCC. "That message is being driven home, and it's a message that moves numbers."

Tim Walz's immigration plan is found here.  It does not include amnesty, but rather asks undocumented immigrants to return to their home countries and apply for legal status. 

Want the truth to be told? Volunteer and contribute.

Walz to students: Why you should care

While Gil Gutknecht was hobnobbing with Laura Bush and other Republicans, Tim Walz was worknig a tougher crowd on Wednesday: high school students.  The Mankato Free Press reports:

While first lady Laura Bush was busy campaigning for Gil Gutknecht in Rochester Wednesday, Tim Walz spent most of the morning talking to Maple River High School students.

Most of whom can’t vote.

“I’m not here to convince you to vote for me,” he said. “... (I’m) here to tell you why you should care.”

While the Walz stop was rather surprising given the time element, perhaps the more interesting fact is he isn’t the only area candidate who has made a pit stop at Maple River High School.

State House candidates Tony Cornish and Jim Peterson, state Senate candidate Julie Rosen and now U.S. House candidate Walz have all chatted with classes at the high school of about 430 students.

Maple River is still waiting on confirmation from Gutknecht and Rosen’s opponent Dave Wertjes, but Principal Dan Anderson said there is a good chance both will swing by before the election — meaning students would get a chance to hear from opposing candidates in three key area races.

“It’s a great opportunity to learn about how the system works,” Anderson said. “You look at the amount of 18- to 25 year-olds that vote, and it’s not a very good percentage.”

Besides getting students interested in voting, the visits give them a true taste of the democratic process.

And when the politicians/candidates come, students are expected to be prepared. Before each visit, they’re given a list of topics and asked to construct a question and ask candidates.

Which is exactly what happened Wednesday. After Walz gave a brief introduction, students quizzed him about topics including college tuition, the Iraq war, Social Security and campaign advertisements.

Maple River social studies teacher and Mapleton Mayor Jim Swanson has been instrumental to getting the politicians to come to the town and talk, Anderson said.

“He’s very good about getting both sides in,” Anderson said. “(Students) think it’s pretty neat that they’re here.”

Twelfth-grader Brad Caldwell is one of them.

Unlike most of his of classmates, Caldwell recently turned 18, so he’ll be casting a vote Nov. 7. Although he already has opinions about each candidate and certain issues, it certainly helps to hear their views firsthand, he said.

“It helps to get to know (candidates),” Caldwell said. “It’s nice to know they pay attention to us.”

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTE: WALZ WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RETURNING SOLDIERS Ruth Harvey of St. Peter shares her experience during Max Cleland's visit:

I just attended an event for First District U.S. Congressional candidate Tim Walz in which former Senator Max Cleland, head of the VA under President Carter, spoke in support of Walz.

My husband, as well as his dad and uncles, my brother, my father and my uncles all served their country in the military. Walz himself and Cleland have also served with honor in the military. Their position is that the troops now serving be treated fairly, whether they are National Guard, Reserves or regular military. This rings true coming from Walz and Cleland. It is not something the current administration or Republican Congress honors. The troops and families of troops that are now being wounded or killed are paying a huge price, without the necessary help from the VA, because this Congress and White House have underfunded and voted against these essential programs.

For what is spent in one month in Iraq, the VA could be put back on track and our returning troops could be given the help they need to return to their jobs, families and lives. I myself have issues with the war in Iraq, but I have always felt that “support our troops” should mean support not only while they serve, but once they come home, too. Walz is the guy who will make that happen.

10/26/06 FOX NEWS POLL: DEMOCRATS PREFERRED ON MOST ISSUES
Gil Gutknecht may have told a Republican audience in Rochester that their party will pick up seats in November's election, but the preferred news source for conservatives doesn't support his set of facts:

NEW YORK  —  Less than two weeks before Election Day, Democrats hold a double-digit lead over Republicans among likely voters in the Congressional election — not surprising, as Democrats are seen as the party that can do a better job on almost all of the top issues facing the country today, according to a new FOX News poll. Republicans still have the advantage on one of their traditional strengths — handling the issue of terrorism, although

President George W. Bush’s job rating is essentially unchanged this week: 40 percent of voters say they approve of the job Bush is doing and 53 percent disapprove. And the vote for Congress looks similar to those numbers — in reverse.

Today Democrats have an 11-percentage point advantage in the Congressional election (49-38 percent), up from a 9-point edge over Republicans two weeks ago.

Almost all Democrats would vote for their party’s candidate (92 percent), and most Republicans would vote Republican (85 percent). Independents are more likely to back the Democrat in their district by 14 points (43 percent to 29 percent).

About one in 10 voters who backed President Bush in the 2004 election (11 percent) say they will support the Democratic candidate in their district — by comparison, 6 percent of those who voted for Kerry say they will vote for the Republican.

Fox also looks at targeting voters in the First. They report; you decide.

MORE NETROOTS
Minnesota Monitor has posted a issue-by-issue comparison of Walz and Gutknecht's positions.

The Blue Catablog putsthe Fighting First on a list of smart places to contribute:

7) Tim Walz (MN-1): This Army National Guard veteran and High School coach and teacher just got the endorsement of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune over incumbent Gil Gutknecht, who the paper had endorsed two years ago. In a seat that also was thought to be safe GOP. Tim has accomplished all this by raising under $1 million, so you know that his campaign uses its funds wisely.

The Wege puts the First Lady's visit in context of an unpopular war and its consequences for the troops.

Associated Press: Obama to stump for Klobuchar, Walz

Today's Post Bulletin first reported that  Barack Obama will be in Rochester on Monday--there's now a time and a place--and Tim Walz too--according to the Associated Press:

Associated Press

ROCHESTER, Minn. - A rising star in the Democratic Party will be in Rochester next week.

The Olmsted County D-F-L confirms that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (buh-RAHK' oh-BAH'-muh) will stop at a political rally Monday to support Democratic Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar and congressional candidate Tim Walz.

The rally will be held at the Mayo Civic Center Auditorium. Doors open at 4:30, with the rally beginning at five p.m..

The event is open to the public.

Obama has been touring the country promoting his book, "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream."

Obama recently was interviewed on N-B-C's "Meet the Press," where he told Tim Russert he's considering a presidential run in 2008.

MN-01 morning papers: letters (and Obama on his way)

WORTHINGTON DAILY GLOBE LTE: EX-GUTKNECHT SUPPORTER REMEMBERS TERM LIMIT PROMISE
North Mankato's Richard McCluhan remembers a visit from Gil Gutknecht twelve years ago:

I am truly surprised at the political spin that Gil Gutknecht is putting on his record in Congress and the negative campaigning that he is engaged in this election season. This is a man who sat in my office 12 years ago and told me how much he embraced the highly touted contract with America.
As I willingly got my checkbook out, Gil went on and on about how things would be different once we had a Republican majority in Congress. He would always be one to take the moral high road, and you could count on him to campaign on the issues. Well, it’s been 12 years, Gil, and I’m still waiting.

Remember how you were going to introduce legislation embracing term limits, providing a line item veto, balancing the budget, reforming campaign financing, fixing social security, limiting special interest money in campaigns and so on? Then, to top it all off, you and the Republican majority were going to raise the moral bar. Well, it’s been 12 years, Gil, and I’m still waiting.

In fact, didn’t you promise that you were only going to serve 12 years at the most as a self-imposed term limit? Well, I suppose I really shouldn’t be surprised that you didn’t keep that particular promise, as you haven’t kept any of your other promises.

This election season I met candidate Tim Walz. Tim spoke of many of the same things that you did 12 years ago, and I am supporting his candidacy this year. It’s been 12 years, Gil, and quite simply, I’m tired of waiting.

WINONA DAILY NEWS LTES
People in Winona love to write letters to the editor. Today's paper includes a choice selection of missives about the Walz-Gutknecht contest.

First up are two letters questioning why Gutknecht insisted on a closed debate at St. Mary's University. Adam Frederickson asks Why is Gil afraid?:

People of Winona weren’t let in to see the debate between Gil Gutknecht and Tim Walz in Winona for U.S. Congress.

Gutknecht insisted the debate be closed to the general public. Why? Maybe he’s afraid to face the public? Maybe he is embarrassed to be part of the Bush-Congress bunch that has gotten us into the mess in Iraq? Or, maybe it’s the huge debt they’ve gotten us into?

Gutknecht refused to allow public in, writes Jim Gurley. Gurley compares Gutknecht's exclusionary behavior to that at the 2004 Bush rally in Mankato, where two of Tim Walz's students were thrown out:

Gil Gutknecht and Tim Walz debated in Winona recently. Walz wanted an open debate, but Gutknecht refused to allow the public in. We were told to listen to it later on radio.

This is an outrage!

We, Gutknecht’s constituents, are about to cast a very important vote. Part of that decision is to see both men debate the issues, to look each man in the eye. We can’t get that from a radio recording. This is the one time Winonans could see them debate, and Gutknecht excluded us. Maybe Gutknecht learned this technique from George W. Bush, his close ally. Bush in 2004 refused to let Tim Walz and his students into a Bush rally in Mankato, just after Walz had returned from active duty in support of the war in Afghanistan. Well, Tim was displeased and angered, of course, at the arrogance of the Bush-Gutknecht crowd, and he decided to do something. And likewise, we’re going to do something, because we deserve access.

I’ve got news for Gutknecht: He will be the one excluded next year — from access to the Capitol in Washington.

Craig Brooks says that Gutknecht doesn’t read his mail:

I have often written to Congressman Gil Gutknecht during the past 12 years. Every single time I get a form letter from his office that has absolutely nothing to do with what I wrote about. When I write back to clarify, I don’t get a response.

I plan to vote Nov. 7 for a man who will care about what I have to say and who will respond to the topic rather than with a form letter du jour. I will vote for Tim Walz.

Pat Moline believes that 12 years are enough:

Message to Gil Gutknecht: Gil, you’ve had 12 years in Congress. Why aren’t you telling us about your accomplishments instead of running false and negative ads about Tim Walz? Do you have nothing to offer other than attacks on your opponent?

I think 12 years is enough. Now we need to let Tim Walz tackle the tough issues to get this country turned around. Vote for Tim Walz for Congress

St. Peter's Peter Westre explains why he wants Send Walz to Washington:

I am writing to encourage voters to vote for a change in Washington this fall. Gil Gutknecht claims to be “our congressman.”

The reality is that in 12 years he has not been an effective voice for the interests of all Minnesotans. He has zero legislative accomplishments on national policy that affects the lives of citizens in his district. (His drug reimportation bill went nowhere.)

Tim Walz presents a clear alternative. A vote for Tim will represent a vote for a man who has spent his adult life representing core values of loyalty, duty, respect, selfless service, honor, integrity and personal courage through personal service in the military and as a teacher of young people. It is time to send a man of real accomplishment to Washington to represent our interests.

The Winona Daily News picks up the AP story on Laura Bush's visit to Rochester.

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTE: DM & E LOAN WAS SNEAKY
D. G. Fettes wants taxpayer-backed loans to be debately freely:

The DM&E Railroad loan was a sneaky political trick by a former lobbyist. He couldn’t do this alone, others had to have known and helped him. A number of our representatives, I’m sure, knew about this provision hidden in the transportation bill.

This is a $2.3 billion loan requested by a private company approximately 23 times smaller than the loan. In 2003, the DM&E received a $233 million dollar loan which is still outstanding. It is unlikely any or either will ever be repaid.

The question is, “Do we want our representatives supporting a loan that was made without a public hearing or debated in Congress?”

This isn’t the way to do government business or represent the taxpayers in our state or the United States.

Under the circumstances surrounding the loan application, it should not be approved.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN: OBAMA TO CAMPAIGN FOR KLOBUCHAR ON MONDAY
The Post Bulletin reports:

The hottest thing in politics, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, is scheduled to be in Rochester on Monday for a political rally in support of DFL Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar.

The rally will be at 3 p.m.; place TBA.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN: POLL CITES GROWING OBJECTIONS TO DM & E
Jeffrey Pieters reports on the findings of a poll commissioned by the Rochester Coalition. The story concludes with the poll's findings on the potential impact of the issue on voting:

All of the respondents said they were registered voters, and 53 percent of them across the 1st District said the DM&E issue would be important to them as they choose who to vote for in the congressional race between incumbent Rep. Gil Gutknecht, a Republican, and his Democratic challenger Tim Walz.

That consideration apparently weighs heavier in Olmsted County, where about three-quarters said they'll consider Gutknecht's and Walz's positions on the DM&E as they choose between them.

The preferred position?

Opposition, according to the poll. By a ratio of 3-to-1, respondents said they'd be less likely rather than more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who supports the project. The percentages ran 56-17 in Olmsted County, and 49-15 in the 1st District overall. Significant portions responded that the matter made no difference to them, they didn't know or they refused to answer the question.

Results of the survey were sent to Gutknecht's and Walz's offices, along with other media recipients, on Wednesday and Thursday, according to a Rochester Coalition spokesman.

From August to October, poll respondents' awareness of the DM&E issue grew slightly, though by an amount perhaps insignificant given the poll's error margin. In Olmsted County, 70 percent in August and 73 percent in October said they had seen or heard "a lot" or "some" news reports about the train issue.

That same level of public awareness was essentially unchanged across the 1st District, registering at 58 percent both times the poll was conducted.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN LTES
Andy Toft from Bryan reminds readers of Gutknecht's promises in the Contract for America:

In 1994, Gil Gutknecht signed onto the Contract with America. Here is what we have seen with a couple of major parts of the contract.

One major part was the Fiscal Responsibility Act. This was to be an amendment to the Constitution to require a balanced budget. Our budget is a bust and no one seems to care. Is this what is called fiscally conservative when the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and we say good-bye to the middle working class.

Another major part was the Citizen Legislature Act ,which would have imposed 12-year term limits on members of Congress. Must have been a good idea at the time, but now it's 12 years later and Gutknecht must like the pay, the health care and the retirement more than the belief that legislators are ineffective after 12 years.

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely." I learned this in my high school history class and does it ever hold true. The Republicans have control of all three branches of government and we have seen nothing but a culture of corruption.

Time for change. Working people need to vote for Tim Walz and the Democrats.

Mail carrier Gerald Stolp delivers The facts on Gutknecht's pay vote:

I agree with Mike Varley that the voters should learn the facts, but not necessarily Varley's "facts."

Since Republicans have controlled both the House and Senate for the past six years, if Gil Gutknecht and his party truly wanted to raise the minimum wage, it would have been raised! How come it hasn't been? Because the party doesn't want it raised, and it makes no difference whether Gutknecht votes at all.

I worked as a mail carrier and I don't remember ever getting a pay raise this easily, so I did a little checking on the Internet. Congress established its own pay raise system. The only way this system can be stopped is if members vote not to accept the raise. Rep. Jim Matheson of Utah offered such a motion. The motion was defeated, as was expected. Gutknecht voted to defeat the motion.

Joe Mayer writes Gutknecht out of touch:

As terrible as President Bush's approval ratings appear, they actually look good when compared to the ratings for Congress.

For most of the past year when approval ratings of Congress have been low, we still re-elect "our" congressperson over 90 percent of the time. Somehow, our representative is not part of the problem.

Rep. Gil Gutknecht gave congressional control of war over to the president, he voted that not we, but our children and grandchildren will pay for this war.

He's silent on torture but voted to grant that power to the executive branch in violation of international law, he voted to allow our government to spy on its citizens, and he campaigns, not on these, but on issues designed to keep American citizens in fear.

The widening of the economic divide in the United States is not the result of the "market economy" alone, but of government laws favoring money over people.

Most of Gutknecht's votes in the economic area have resulted in the economic exclusion of working people, the elderly, students, and the poor. As the GOP current election slogan says "Gil is out of touch with Minnesotans."

Is the trend his friend?: Gutknecht predicts GOP will pick up seats

Bob Von Sternberg and Eric Black covered yesterday's appearances in Minnesota by Laura Bush in "First Lady comes to bolster state GOP in speedy swing."  It's an incredibly upbeat piece.

Gil Gutknecht predicts that the Republican Party will pick up seats in November's election:

Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Tim Walz, introduced Bush.

"As they say on Wall Street, the trend is your friend," he said, referring to national generic congressional polls that have recently showed Democrats' anticipated big majorities shrinking. "One I saw yesterday showed they were only four up. If we're only four down on election day, I've got news for you: We're going to gain seats. Everything's going our way."

How in touch with the pulse of the nation is that? 

Since we don't have the Strib's D.J. Tice as our editor, we went looking for those national generic congressional polls that have emboldened Representative Gutknecht.

Wednesday's Political Wire at US News & World Report included this item:

In a new research paper cited on Political Wire, three political scientists from Dartmouth, Columbia, and Temple attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections. The report says that "via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome." Their final analysis forecasts the Democrats gaining 32 seats in the House and "Democratic control (18 seats or more) a near certainty."

At MSNBC yesterday, political forecaster Charles Cook assessed the situation:

Another week has gone by and little has changed. The Republican Party still seems to be headed toward a very tough election.

In the House, Republicans are most likely to see a net loss of 20 to 35 seats, and with it their majority. In the Senate, the GOP could lose at least four, but a five- or six-seat loss is more likely. A six-seat change tips the chamber into Democratic hands.

Could the situation change? Could the trajectory of this election be altered if the spotlight shifts from Iraq, congressional scandals, budget deficits, Hurricane Katrina, Terri Schiavo, stem-cell research and immigration onto something else, like terrorism or national security? Of course it could. In the time it takes to read this article, something could happen. A confrontation at sea involving a freighter going into or coming out of North Korea, for example, could dominate the news and the public consciousness. But unless something of that magnitude happens, we have to go with the situation as it stands.

While some stick to the assumption that this is a normal political environment, that this election is an "all politics is local" election like 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004, they do so in the face of an enormous amount of polling data that demonstrates a horrendous political climate -- the kind that one sees periodically in midterm elections like 1958, 1966, 1974 and 1994, and even occasionally in presidential election years like 1932, 1964 and 1980.

Since 1994 is the most recent of these "wave" elections, when all politics is hardly local, compare the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted October 13-16 among 1,006 registered voters nationwide, with the comparable NBC/WSJ poll from October 1994. President Bill Clinton and the Democrats were in the hot seat, headed toward a 52-seat loss in the House and an eight-seat Senate defeat.

In the October 1994 NBC/WSJ poll, 39 percent of voters thought the country was headed in the right direction, compared with 48 percent who said it was on the wrong track -- a nine-point lead for wrong track. In the recent poll, just 26 percent said right direction and 61 percent said wrong track; a net difference of 35 points, significantly worse than 1994.

The October 1994 poll gave Clinton a job approval rating of 48 percent and a disapproval rating of 43 percent, a five-point difference. This month, just 38 percent approved of President Bush's performance compared to 57 percent who disapproved, a net disapproval of 19 points. Again, it's significantly worse than 1994.

In the poll taken 12 years ago, 24 percent approved of the job Congress was doing and 67 percent disapproved, a net disapproval of 43 points. In last week's poll, just 16 percent approved of Congress and a whopping 75 percent disapproved, a 59-point net disapproval.

USA TODAY does report a change in its latest polling, but it's still far short of GOP pickup:

The latest USA TODAY/Gallup national poll, taken over the weekend, shows that:

•Thirty-eight percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S. House of Representatives member from their district does not deserve re-election. That number has never been higher. Two weeks ago it stood at 33%.

•Asked what will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, 43% of likely voters said "national issues" — also the highest that figure has reached.

•On the generic question of whether they favor the Democrat or Republican candidate in their district, 54% of likely voters chose the Democrat and 41% the Republican.

That 13 percentage-point gap is well below the 23-point advantage Democrats held in the previous poll, but matches the advantage that Republicans held with two weeks to go before the landmark 1994 election when they swept control of Congress.

Gutknecht may believe in trends that are his friends; fortunately, the Mayo Clinic is nearby to offer help.

BLOOMBERG: AD TSUNAMI IN MN-01
One national trend reflected in the First is for national political parties to dump money into media buys on local television stations, according to Bloomberg:

Local television stations around the U.S. are reaping record revenue from a blitz of political advertising in the waning days of the midterm congressional elections.   

Spending on political advertising at local stations, previously estimated to hit $1.4 billion, will exceed that amount ``with lead-pipe certainty,'' said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks campaign finance. He now predicts a record $2 billion in spending this year, $300 million more than in 2004, when there were both congressional and presidential elections.   

``It's a tsunami, frankly,'' said Jerry Watson, vice president and general manager at NBC affiliate KTTC-TV in Rochester, Minnesota.         

[snip]

Minnesota Race

In Minnesota's First District, where Watson's station is located, national organizations including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have spent more than $570,000 since Oct. 1, compared with just $5,000 the month before, according to Federal Election Commission records.   

Money suddenly moved into the rural district after polls showed incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht is barely holding off his Democratic challenger, Tim Walz. According to a Constituent Dynamics poll conducted between Oct. 8 and 10, Gutknecht leads Walz by the statistically insignificant margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.       

Contrary to what a local blog reported last night, no party is abandoning the field of battle in the First. The seat is in play and the stakes are high--volunteer and contribute to the Walz campaign.

Evening read: taxes, farmers, debate files . . .

OWATONNA PEOPLE'S PRESS LTE: WALZ TAX PLAN MAKES SENSE
As we've noted, Gutknecht is attacking Walz on taxes.  Walz's supporters are fighting  back.  Letter writer Becky Schuette of Owatonna is a good example. ( behind a subscription firewall--the editor wants permission to run any length of quote from the OPP, so we're revising here; contact the OPP for the actual text of the letter)

ST. MARY'S DEBATE: AUDIO FILE
The Minnesota Broadcasters Association audio file of the 30 minute debate at St. Mary'sUniversity is available for download here.

POLINAUT: NPR TO THE FIRST
Bob Collins writes that National Public Radio is coming to cover the First:

National Public Radio is sending its political reporters to Minnesota next week.

Looks like they'll be concentrating on the 1st District race. "We want to know how much the war is affecting their votes… and we want to understand what's making a district that has been a sure bet for Republican Gil Gutknecht into a tight race. His opponent, Tim Walz, is one of the "fighting Dems"; we think that's gotta be part of it. We are hoping to gain some insight in the 1st District into national trends that seem to be giving Dems such a boost," a memo says.

Look for a segment on the national All Things Considered next Friday.

AP: THE POWER OF INCUMBENCY
Not everyone is getting that close to the ground. Ben Feller phones one in about incumbency campaigning:

Those in power love to dole out grants at election time. With Republican control of Congress at risk, the Bush administration is busily using the perks of incumbency to help allies from Ohio to California.

The formula: Cabinet luminaries travel to competitive districts and hand out money while local candidates bask in media coverage.

"Democrats did it. Republicans are doing it. The Whigs and the Federalists probably did it as well. It's a very old tradition," said John Fortier, a research fellow who studies politics and elections at the American Enterprise Institute.

So that's what Gutknecht was up to:

Elsewhere in the Cabinet, Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, has traveled the south and the Midwest to help out Republican candidates.

Johanns appeared Tuesday at an ethanol seminar with Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is tied with or trailing Democrat Mike Hatch in polls. Then he appeared at campaign events with Senate candidate Mark Kennedy and Rep. Gil Gutknecht, whose races are viewed as competitive.

Poor Gil: rather than basking in media coverage generated by Johanns' visit,  he got a strong dose of Tim Walz in the Mankato Free Press, explaining what Democratic victories will mean to Minnesota's farmers:

Democratic challenger Tim Walz, whose aggressive campaign has made the 1st District race close enough to attract national Republican campaigners such as Johanns, agrees that the current farm policy is basically a good one. Walz, a Mankato school teacher, also agrees that farmers should vote strategically on Nov. 7.

Electing the 15 additional Democrats needed to make the Democrats the majority party in the House will put Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson in the chairmanship of the House Agriculture Committee, Walz said. He would replace Virginia Republican Bob Goodlatte as chairman.

“To move the agriculture committee chair out of the south and into the heartland, there’s no doubt” that would be good news for Midwestern farmers and the subsidy programs that help them, he said.

Walz, along with many political analysts, is predicting that Democrats will take control of the House in this year’s mid-term election. That would put Gutknecht in the minority, a position where his seniority will bring less influence — less influence than Walz said he would have as a member of the majority Democrats on the committee.

MINNESOTA MONITOR/VOX VERAX: VOTE VETS AD
Leigh Pomeroy takes a look at the Vote Vets Ad.  Scroll down our page to view the ad before you click over to read the analysis.

We'll have more netroots when Blogger fixes itself; some blogspot sites covering the 1st are turning up in searches, but aren't accessible.

Associated Press: "Big stakes - big stakes"

Backbencher Gil Gutknecht, who supported White House initiatives 94% of the time this year, , is in a hard fight, according to the AP wire:

Martiga Lohn
Associated Press

ROCHESTER, Minn.U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht, always a friendly man, greeted his supporters in this southeastern Minnesota city with special warmth.

"Thanks for coming out. God bless you all," the Republican said as he shook hands with several dozen people after a rally. "This is going to be a big election. Big stakes - big stakes."

First lady Laura Bush's presence at Wednesday's rally underscored just how large the stakes have grown for Gutknecht, a 12-year incumbent who has rarely needed big-name help in a reliably GOP district.

But Gutknecht hasn't been immune to the same troubles that have weighted Republicans elsewhere, including President Bush's low popularity and the violence in Iraq. And this time around, he faces an unexpectedly intense challenge from Democrat Tim Walz, a high school teacher and Army National Guard veteran.

"The fact that he's in a competitive race shows what an exceptional year this is," said Dan Hofrenning, a political scientist at St. Olaf College in Northfield.

Bush, who also campaigned Wednesday in the Twin Cities for GOP House candidate Michele Bachmann, touted Gutknecht in her Rochester stop as a "champion" of U.S. troops. She also said he would help farmers and boost the rural economy by pushing for renewable fuels such as ethanol.

To Walz, the first lady's visit was a sign of how seriously Republicans take him.

"Bringing her here was a great deal," he said. "It's going to get me on Fox News."

It was another watershed year in politics - 1994 - when Gutknecht latched onto Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" in his first run for Congress. He pushed for a balanced budget, cuts to sacrosanct social programs such as Medicare, and term limits. Gutknecht won that race decisively, entering the House with 72 other conservatives as part of Gingrich's Republican revolution. The GOP took control for the first time in 40 years.

"This is like the fall of the Berlin Wall," Gutknecht told a reporter as he took office in 1995. "It will be harder for future Congresses to go back."

Even in a group of GOP newcomers that included pop star Sonny Bono, the personable real estate auctioneer from Rochester - a man friends say does spot-on impersonations of W.C. Fields and Marlon Brando - stood out. He led a floor debate on his first day, and a CNN crew shadowed him as the face of the new order.

"That was a heady year," said Ellen Youngers, a family friend who volunteered on Gutknecht's 1994 campaign and later worked in his congressional district office.

Over the next 12 years, Gutknecht settled into his role as a fiscal conservative in Washington. But he also went against party leaders on issues such as importing prescription drugs and criticized the Bush administration over the budget deficit. He was the only Minnesota Republican to vote against the Central American Free Trade Agreement last year.

"This is a man who's not always been - certainly in the last several years - the favorite of this White House," said John Wade, who served as Gutknecht's chief of staff in the late 1990s.

Gutknecht supported Bush's initiatives 94 percent of the time this year and 78 percent last year, according to Congressional Quarterly.

He has faced credible challengers over the years, but Walz has come on stronger. Walz has attacked the incumbent for being too close to the president; one TV ad shows President Bush speaking directly into Gutknecht's ear as they shake hands at a rally.

Walz and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have also tried to paint Gutknecht as unsupportive of American soldiers, with TV ads saying he voted against giving them bonuses and extending their health care benefits.

The National Republican Congressional Committee and Gutknecht are hitting Walz with TV ads that claim he would raise taxes and allow billions in government benefits for illegal immigrants. Walz spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery said the ads are inaccurate.

At Wednesday's rally, local GOP leader Terri Penz sadly acknowledged that Gutknecht is facing his toughest challenge yet.

"I just think they are more energized this year than maybe in previous years," Penz said.

Walz is starting to sound a lot like a certain upstart state legislator from Rochester who pushed to overturn the status quo a dozen years ago.

"I'm talking about an ineffective Congress that is not living up to its promises," he said. "The anger and frustration have turned into optimism for change."

Walz to farmers: Vote strategically on November 7

The Mankato Free Press reports that Gutknecht shipped in USDA head Mike Johanns to do a little campaigning in Mankato:

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns made a campaign stop in Mankato on behalf of Congressman Gil Gutknecht Tuesday, asking farm country voters to remember on Nov. 7 that times are good for farmers.

[snip]

Gutknecht, a Rochester Republican seeking his seventh term in Congress, noted that he has rising seniority on the House Agriculture Committee and is chairman of a subcommittee that has influence on renewable energy and other rural issues. That’s important in south-central Minnesota.

“If you draw a 200-mile radius around Mankato, Minnesota, it really is the center of what is happening with renewable energy in the whole United States,” Gutknecht said.

With Congress set to begin writing a new multi-year farm bill next year, Johanns suggested farmers should vote pragmatically in two weeks and elect a tenured congressman such as Gutknecht.

“You desperately need somebody who can make the case in the committee (for southern Minnesota’s interests),” Johanns said. “You also need the person who can make the case on the House floor.”

Tim Walz seizes their thunder by asking that farmers think strategically about the impact of their votes:

Democratic challenger Tim Walz, whose aggressive campaign has made the 1st District race close enough to attract national Republican campaigners such as Johanns, agrees that the current farm policy is basically a good one. Walz, a Mankato school teacher, also agrees that farmers should vote strategically on Nov. 7.

Electing the 15 additional Democrats needed to make the Democrats the majority party in the House will put Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson in the chairmanship of the House Agriculture Committee, Walz said. He would replace Virginia Republican Bob Goodlatte as chairman.

“To move the agriculture committee chair out of the south and into the heartland, there’s no doubt” that would be good news for Midwestern farmers and the subsidy programs that help them, he said.

Walz, along with many political analysts, is predicting that Democrats will take control of the House in this year’s mid-term election. That would put Gutknecht in the minority, a position where his seniority will bring less influence — less influence than Walz said he would have as a member of the majority Democrats on the committee.

And Walz said he will be on the committee.

“Collin Peterson has guaranteed me a spot on the agriculture committee, and he’ll announce that in the next few days in Mankato,” Walz said.

But Johanns and Gutknecht said farmers should think about more than who runs the ag committee when considering whether to elect Democrats. Both said that Democratic control of the House would bring chairmen and chairwomen that would push to raise taxes.

“There’s the whole package there that, quite honestly, just worries the living daylights out of me,” Johanns said.

Walz said Americans, including farmers, are ready for change in Washington — change in the Iraq war strategy, health care policy and deficit spending.

Republicans are reduced to using scare tactics on voters such as false suggestions of middle-class tax increases, he said.

Under his tax proposals, farmers and other Minnesotans making less than $330,000 a year would benefit, Walz said.

Farmers in southern Minnesota can decide to take power, rather than be desperately needy.