A Bluestem Prairie

YouTube VoteVets Ad for MN-01

Via DailyKos, here's the Vote Vets ad that will be playing in the Fighting First:

MN-01 Netroots review: What's eating Gil Gutknecht?

MINNESOTA MONITOR/VOX VERAX: ATTACK ADS SIGNAL THREAT
Leigh Pomeroy looks at development in the First at Minnesota Monitor and Vox Verax.  He assesses GOP tactics:

One of the key indicators that shows how seriously Gutknecht is finally taking the Walz challenge is his — and the national GOP's — reliance upon vicious attack ads using mailers, radio and TV. The Gutknecht-GOP barrage against Walz has dealt primarily with the issues of immigration and taxes.

EVIL BOBBY: DIRTY TRICKS AND RUMORS THEREOF
Voters in the First have been receiving mailings attacking Tim Walz on taxes and immigration. Evil Bobby's got copies of the mailings and a write up.

ORANGE PENNY LOAFERS: INEPT AND INEFFECTUAL
Mr. Barrett tells readers what he really thinks about Gil Gutknecht:

Thrice today has MPR pissed me off, though not intentionally. It's through interviews with a trio of mealy-mouthed weasels: Karl Rove, Rick Santorum, and Gil Gutknecht.

[snip]

Lastly, Gilly boy:

"This election in this district is incredibly important and it's proven to be much tougher than I would have thought six months ago," Gutknecht says. "In fact, it's tougher than I thought it would be two weeks ago."

Either Gil has had blinders on this whole time, or he's been ignoring it, or he's just an idiot. By his account, Tim Walz was beamed down from a spaceship two weeks ago.

"I have nothing to do with this [the Foley scandal], but you know what?" he asks. "Our numbers really took a tumble and it's been universally true around the country, and it shocks me that we have been punished for something that we have nothing to do with."

Except for the whole thing where the House leadership sat on the information without doing anything, and then started trying to blame the Democrats because it came out at an inconvenient time. And I'll give you 100 to 1 odds that if Foley were a Democrat, Republicans would be jumping on the entire party and not just a few people. Whether or not people like Gutknecht knew before the story broke, they deserve to be punished--not for Mark Foley himself, but for how the issue is being handled, and for not calling more fervently for the House leadership to step down. Gutknecht's absolutely right: he had nothing to do with Foley, and nothing to do with trying to fix the situation.

"I think once they understand, particularly in counties like Winona County and Houston County where people are socially pretty conservative people, I think once they understand where he stands on issues like gay marriage and abortion, I think a lot of those people are going to come home," Gutknecht says.

This one is the coup de gras. Is Gutknecht really so stupid that he thinks enough people are focused entirely on one or two social issues in an election? Yeah, a lot of people care about abortion and gay marriage. Are people going to vote against Tim Walz just because of those two issues? Sure, but not as many who will vote for him for myriad other more important concerns. If these social issues were really that important, this Republican-controlled government would have nailed those down already. They've had six years, but the issues are still on the table. People are starting to realize that the reason is because the Republicans never will do anything about them. They're a party of slick-haired, shiny-smiling promisers who do little more than sit on their hands until an election year comes around. Soon they're going to learn why manipulating voters is not an effective way of staying in power.

MNPUBLIUS: WHO SUPPORTS THE TROOPS AGAIN?
MnPublius takes a look at Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) ratings of Minnesota' congressional delegation. Gil Gutknecht gets a C+.

GOOGLING GIL GUTKNECHT
What a search today turns up.

Rochester Post Bulletin: Thirteen ways of looking at a dark horse

The Rochester Post-Bulletin' s Matt Stolle was the first reporter in a daily newspaper to call the contest in Minnesota's Fighting First a "dogfight."  Today, he reports on  how "Bush visit puts spotlight on Gutknecht-Walz race."  UPDATE: The AP reports that "several hundred" attended the rally.

His article includes the news that  both John Kerry and John McCain will be in Mankato on the same day next week:

There are a couple of ways to look at first lady Laura Bush's appearance at a Republican rally in Rochester this afternoon.

Either national Republican leaders are buying extra insurance for a candidate, U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht, and a district they still see as GOP territory. Or, Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent, is truly in a fight for his political life against DFL challenger Tim Walz, as political analysts say.

Either way, Bush's presence in Rochester, combined with a $100,000 ad purchase by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee on Gutknecht's behalf, underscores how much the political landscape has changed not only for the 1st Congressional District but nationally as well, as the election season enters its final two weeks.

The number of House seats held by Republicans and considered "at risk" have nearly tripled since January, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Then, 18 GOP seats were endangered; now there are 48.

At stake is control of the Republican-led House and Senate, which would swing to the Democrats with a 15-seat gain in the House and six-seat pickup in the Senate.

In the trenches

Political analysts describe the support Gutknecht and GOP incumbents once considered in "safe" or "GOP leaning" seats are getting from the national party as a kind of a "line in the sand" beyond which it is determined to hold back the Democratic Party.

"Republicans saw the problems coming, and they've been building trenches and earthworks and fortifications to try and hold back that blue tide," said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. "They've been doing that for months now. And we'll see how successful those fortifications" are in holding Democrats back.

And who better to do a little spadework than Laura Bush herself, an enormously popular Republican figure, despite the political troubles that surround and beset Republican incumbents these days.

Schier called bringing Bush to Rochester, where she was to be joined by Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Senate candidate Mark Kennedy, a "smart thing to do." Bush is more popular than her husband, and she brings a softer edge.

She is perhaps the perfect Republican calling card for an area that is "not a deep red, socially conservative community."

"She is more likely to get positive coverage than her husband, especially coming to a place like Rochester," Schier added. "Whenever her husband appears in a major population center, there will be protests, counter speakers and truth squads, whereas Laura Bush is less likely to raise those hackles."

A top draw

The presence of Gutknecht, Pawlenty and Kennedy alongside the first lady also illustrates to some extent how their political fates are tied together.

Get-out-the vote efforts will play a critical role in this election. And Republican leaders hope Bush is the energizing antidote to a Republican base depressed by the war in Iraq and a scandal-plagued Washington.

Pawlenty is in a tough re-election battle with DFL candidate Mike Hatch, while most polls show Kennedy struggling to overcome a double-digit deficit to Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar.

"Each party has certain big-draw speakers that are going out and hitting most of the important congressional and Senate races in the final two weeks, and Laura Bush has got to be in the top two or three," said Joseph Kunkel, a political scientist at Minnesota State University-Mankato.

Money comes to hot races

Since a poll showing the race between Gutknecht and Walz as neck-and-neck and the $100,000 ad buy by the Republican Congressional Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has responded with a $70,000 ad buy of its own in support of Walz.

But it is unclear at this point how much more financial support the Democratic committee is prepared to give the Walz campaign, given that Walz-Gutknecht race was once rated a second-tier competitive race and Democrats are focused on winning at least 15 House seats.

National Journal's political newsletter Hotline now rates the Gutknecht-Walz race as the 36th most competitive House contest in the nation, an upgrade from its 49th ranking last week. The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and Fox TV News are among the news organizations that have turned their attention to the race in the last week.

Meredith Salsbery, a Walz campaign spokeswoman, said she's confident the Democratic committee will provide more support in the final weeks now that it's in for $70,000.

Other political heavy hitters are expected to crisscross the 1st District in the final two weeks of the campaign season. GOP Sen. John McCain will be in Rochester on Nov. 1, while former Democratic presidential contender and Sen. John Kerry will be stumping in Mankato that same day. Humorist Garrison Keiller will headline a DFL rally in Rochester the next day as the election clock ticks down.

OLLIE OX UPDATE: MORE ON LAURA BUSH'S VISIT

Below the fold.

MPR: Gutknecht facing tough challenge from Walz

It was only three weeks ago that Minnesota Public Radio was suggesting that  the congressional contest in the First was about the candidates' hairstyles.

How things change:

Mark Zdechlik, Minnesota Public Radio

October 25, 2006

First Lady Laura Bush will be in Minnesota Wednesday in hopes of firing up Republicans in the state's 1st and 6th Congressional Districts. Polls show the GOP could lose those two congressional seats to Democrats.

In the 1st District, Democrat Tim Walz is posing a serious challenge to long-time  Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht.

St. Paul, Minn. — It's early afternoon on a crisp October Friday. The election is less than three weeks away. Rep. Gil Gutknecht, R-Minn. is working the far eastern edge of Minnesota's conservative 1st Congressional District, which spans southern Minnesota from South Dakota to Wisconsin.

Sitting on a bar stool in the La Crescent American Legion Gutknecht tells about 25 supporters he did not expect to be in the electoral trouble after 12 years in Congress.

"This election in this district is incredibly important and it's proven to be much tougher than I would have thought six months ago," Gutknecht says. "In fact, it's tougher than I thought it would be two weeks ago."

Gutknecht talks about the need to keep taxes down and to reduce the cost of health care. He says Americans' patience is wearing thin regarding Iraq, and that it's time for a change in tactics.

Gutknecht also addresses the Mark Foley congressional e-mail scandal.

"I have nothing to do with this, but you know what?" he asks. "Our numbers really took a tumble and it's been universally true around the country, and it shocks me that we have been punished for something that we have nothing to do with."

How things have changed in this race, except, of course, the GOP talking points that Walz is a liberal out of touch with the First.  That line certainly has working swimmingly since the GOP rolled it out in February:

Finally, Gutknecht talks about his opponent DFLer Tim Walz. Gutknecht says Walz would raise taxes, support gay marriage, legalize abortion and weaken national defense.

"This guy... is one of the most liberal candidates that's run down here," Gutknecht says. "He has literally said that he would increase spending on virtually every federal program. The only program that he has said he would cut is the missile defense system."

And what is Tim Walz talking about?:

The next day, about an hour to the west of La Crescent, in a Rochester neighborhood, it's Democrat Tim Walz doing the talking, door to door.

Walz is a former National Guard member who served in support of the war in Afghanistan working at a supply base in Italy.

He looks more like the Mankato West High School teacher and coach that he is than a polished politician.

And at more than one house, Walz finds former Gutknecht supporters who are on his side now.

"You already got two votes out of this house," says Duane Silker, referring to his vote and the vote of his wife.

As Walz heads to the next house, Silker explains that he's voted for Gutknecht in the last six elections but that now he wants nothing to do with the GOP.

"The major thing I think right now, of course, is the war," Silker says. "I have absolutely been from the very beginning opposed to the war. And the second thing is the economy. The economy is not good. The middle class people are being killed. And that's why I'm opposed to Republicans. I can't help the Republicans," Silker says.

In Rochester Walz is stressing his opposition to the expansion of the DM&E Railroad. His support for stem cell research also plays well here, home of the Mayo Clinic. Walz has been campaigning since the beginning of last year, and he says he's confident he's going to win.

"I've been out in front of the people, speaking from the heart about the issues that matter most to them, demonstrating my leadership from things that I've done," he says. "And I think this campaign itself shows what a guy like me can do. I was told we couldn't do this, but you know what? We built a campaign from the ground up. We received the financing that they said we would never get, and we've made this race one of the most competitive in the country. If that doesn't show you what kind of guy I will be in Congress I am not sure what does."

Up the street Walz runs into another former Gutknecht supporter who says he will now be voting for him.

Pete Waitikowich is a retired World War II Navy serviceman. He's angry about the war in Iraq and says it's been a distraction from catching the culprits behind the 9-11 attacks. He's worried about the economy and he's furious Gutknecht, a term limits supporter, is running for a seventh term he said he would not seek. Waitikowich remembers 1994, when he says Gutknecht banged on his door as part of his first successful campaign for Congress.

"He said; 'Well if I go 12 years, that's enough,' Waitikowich recalls, "Now all of the sudden he thinks he found a home there."

And finally, someone in the statewide press talks to an in-district journalist who, like BSP, has been watching the race,and  knows the Walz campaign hustle:

According to campaign finance documents complied by the Center for Responsive Politics, as of the end of last month Walz had raised about $750,000, compared to Gutknecht's more than $1.1 million.

In recent weeks the tight 1st District  battle has been attracting outside "independent expenditure" money.

All the national attention to Minnesota's 1st District has come as something of a surprise. The editor of the Winona Daily News, Darrell Erlich, says Walz put himself in a good position to ride the anti-incumbency wave.

"Walz has a real appeal to every man," says Erlich. "He's a football coach. He's not as polished as Gutknecht and there's something just genuinely likeable... Gil Gutknecht is a very fine speaker, I think pretty well informed, but there's some real populist appeal to Walz," Erlich says.

Erlich also says Walz may have outworked Gutknecht by showing up everywhere around the district.

"I think how he's gotten in the door is a little bit of complacency from the Gutknecht campaign. This has been such a safe seat."

Walz takes on the "liberal" label:

Back at the American Legion in La Crescent Gutknecht seemed surprised to hear supporters say they don't have lawn signs and campaign literature.

"We've got to get signs down here. That's just outrageous. I just can't believe we didn't get that done," Gutknecht says.

Gutknecht proudly calls himself a conservative. He's hoping voters will look beyond Walz's populist appeal to his stands on the issues.

"I think we need to get them to analyze what the difference between the two of us really is," Gutknecht says. "I think once they understand, particularly in counties like Winona County and Houston County where people are socially pretty conservative people, I think once they understand where he stands on issues like gay marriage and abortion, I think a lot of those people are going to come home," Gutknecht says.

Walz avoids the label "liberal." He says decisions on things like abortion and gay marriage should be left to individuals, not the government. He says that's conservative.

"If liberal is spending 24 years in the military. If liberal is having an "A" rating from the NRA. If liberal is being happily married with two children. If liberal is wanting investments in our schools and wanting to pay down the national debt, I guess I am., But calling me the most liberal person I think what the congressman has obviously polled and found some linguistic things there that he would like to hit on," Walz says.

Gil Gutknecht defeated his last two opponents with 60 percent of the vote. In a normal year Gutknecht's would have been one of the safest of any of Minnesota's congressional seats.

Tim Walz is convinced this is not a normal year.

Democrats hope the success Walz is apparently having in Minnesota is a sign they soon will be in the majority in Washington.

There's audio with the report, too. Go listen.

 

 

 

MN-01 Morning News: Had enough yet? edition

WINONA DAILY NEWS: CLOSED DEBATE, SPARSE CROWD
The Winona Daily News reports that a "Sparse crowd watches Walz and Gutknecht debate at SMU":

By Brian Voerding | Winona Daily News When Tiim Walz and Rep. Gil Gutknecht finally  around to their half-hour debate in Winona on Tuesday, the questions didn’t give them much new to talk about.hen Tim Walz and Rep. Gil Gutknecht finally got around to their half-hour debate in Winona on Tuesday, the questions didn’t give them much new to talk about.

The debate started late. First there was a struggle with the sound; microphone feedback spilled through the audience. Then a television cameraman needed more light on the stage.

Finally, organizers waited while a few attendees took their seats in a mostly empty auditorium at Saint Mary’s University. About 15 people showed up for the event, which was restricted to Saint Mary’s community. Winona Radio planned to air the debate in Winona but has not announced a time.

The candidates responded to broad questions about health care, agriculture policy, education and the war in Iraq. Walz was more passionate, Gutknecht more eloquent, and each had quick answers for occasional attacks.

Walz, the Democratic challenger from Mankato, painted himself as someone who will bring accountability and change to Congress, while the Republican incumbent stressed that things aren’t as bad as Walz makes them out.

“You’d think this is the worst of times,” Gutknecht said.

One question asked the candidates for their position on the Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad’s plan to ship Wyoming coal and other commodities along its lines. The railroad recently applied for a $2.3 billion federal loan. A group from Rochester, including the Mayo Clinic, is actively opposing the railroad.

Gutknecht, who is from Rochester, said he was concerned about the plan, and discussed how he first heard about it seven years ago.

“I said, ‘You mean you’re going to be running high-speed trains through the middle of my district, and that’s going to be wonderful?’” he said. “It took the wind out of their sails.”

Walz pointed out that Gutknecht voted for the transportation bill that allow-ed the railroad to apply for the loan without first reading the bill. He called the bill and subsequent loan application “a great example of everything that’s wrong with this Congress.”

“The House of Representatives is the safeguard and firewall,” he said. ” … (It) needs to be responsible.”

When asked about agriculture and the upcoming 2007 Farm Bill, which will set policy for several years, Walz stressed the importance of local food networks, while Gutknecht, who serves on the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, said farmers are getting “almost record prices” for crops and promoted more food exports.

On higher education, Walz said Congress could curb rising tuition costs by scrapping tax breaks for the wealthy and needs to work harder to help American universities compete with those abroad. Gutknecht said universities are partly to blame for rising tuition, and said Congress needs to help promote broad economic development so recent college graduates can find jobs.

Each candidate had the chance to ask the other a question.

Gutknecht pointedly asked Walz who he would approve in leadership roles if Democrats regained control of the House. Republicans have argued that Democrats would elect liberal leaders out-of-step with moderate voters.

“He wants me to tell you I’m going to vote for Nancy Pelosi,” Walz said, referring to the California Democrat in line to become Speaker of the House, “so he can put it in a commercial.”

Walz didn’t say who he would vote for, but shot back a barbed reference to Mark Foley, the Republican representative from Florida who stepped down last month amid allegations he sent sexual messages to teenage Pages.

“When I vote, I’ll make sure that it there won’t be a scandal coming out of Florida.”

The race between Walz, a Mankato teacher, and Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent, has become increasingly tight. A recent poll showed the two even.

A dozen Walz supporters gathered prior to the debate along Highway 14 near the Saint Mary’s campus entrance, protesting the fact that it wasn’t open to the public.

The candidates had previously agreed to eight debates, two of them closed.

WINONA DAILY NEW LTE: HAD ENOUGH YET?
We have had enough of reading about Gutknecht quoting Charles Dickens, but WDN reader Arthur "Chip" Squires has a more substantial list of grievances:

Have you had enough of six years of Republican governance? Enron/corporate scandals. “Fixing intelligence to the policy” to lead us to war in Iraq. Secret energy policy. Halliburton no-bid contracts. “Outing” a CIA agent for political reasons. $600 million in reconstruction funds for Iraq gone missing. Abu Ghraib. “Rendition” for torture in other countries. Undermining Geneva Conventions. Illegal wire-tapping without FISA warrants. FEMA mismanagement of Hurricane Katrina relief. Rep. Tom DeLay indicted for campaign funding illegalities. Rep. Duke Cunningham jailed for bribery. Robert “Scooter” Libby indicted for perjury. Lobbyist Jack Abramoff indicted for a whole host of things! House cover-up of Rep. Mark Foley’s inappropriate behavior toward underage pages. $9 trillion in debt. $2 billion in cuts to the Veterans Administration in the past two years, while we need $6 billion to care for our disabled veterans now. Bridges to nowhere. Rising college tuition costs. Rising medical and drug costs. Tax cuts for the wealthiest during war. Stagnant wages for the middle class. Fewer people with health insurance. No raise in the minimum wage in 10 years. No immigration policy. Almost 3,000 dead and 30,000 wounded in unending wars. Where’s Osama?

Is it time for change? For accountability? For checks and balances? Yes. Please vote your conscience.

WASHINGTON POST: GOP LEANS ON PROVEN STRATEGY
Will it fall and not get up?  The Washington Post looks at the GOP's increasingly frantic drive to hang on to the Senate and House:

Beset by discouraging polls and division within ideological ranks, the White House is accelerating efforts to woo back disaffected conservatives and energize the Republican base in a reprise of a strategy that succeeded in the last two campaign cycles.

President Bush and Vice President Cheney have given multiple interviews to conservative journalists, senior adviser Karl Rove has telephoned religious and social activists, and the White House has staged signing ceremonies for legislation cracking down on terrorism and illegal immigration. Two weeks before Election Day, Bush aides invited dozens of radio talk show hosts for a marathon broadcast from the White House yesterday to reach conservative listeners.

GOP pollster Frank Luntz says it won't help:

Some conservatives said it is too late. "They honestly need a baseball bat against the head," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who helped Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) take over Congress in the 1990s. "Because if they don't change the lexicon immediately, as bad as this election is going to be, they're going to lose the presidency in 2008. I've given up on 2006. They've already made so many mistakes, there's no way they can fix it in two weeks. But I'm worried now they're going to lose all the marbles."

We believe that baseball bats are best used to hit one out of the park, rather than for correcting one's friends and allies.  Help Tim Walz hit one out the park by volunteering for his campaign.

MN-01: Civility and its discontents

STAR TRIBUNE: CIVILITY TAKES A BRIEF BREAK IN FIRST DISTRICT DEBATE
The Star Tribune struggles to find a frame for the Walz-Gutknecht race in the Fighting First:

U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht and challenger Tim Walz turned harsh at times in their campaign debate in Winona.

Bob Von Sternberg, Star Tribune

WINONA, MINN. - The gloves came off, if only briefly, in the First Congressional District race Tuesday.

For a half-hour Tuesday afternoon, Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht and Democrat Tim Walz debated issues ranging from the war in Iraq to the coal-train plan that has stirred intense opposition in Rochester, the district's biggest city.

But in a campaign that has seen civility reign -- mostly -- during several debates (if not in the candidates' television ads), both men took a few sharp pokes at each other.

When Gutknecht raised the specter of a Democratic House of Representatives being ruled next year by unabashed liberals, Walz shot back, "I have no allegiance to anyone but the people in my district ... If we have the leadership, you won't see things like the scandal in Florida. You want me to say [Minority Leader] Nancy Pelosi so you can put it in a commercial. If it's Nancy Pelosi, so be it."

In his closing, Gutknecht said that "if you listen to my opponent, you would think this is the worst of times in our country. But America is stronger, safer and more prosperous than at any time since 2001."

The jabs, despite the lack of a yawning difference between Gutknecht and Walz on many issues, reflects the fact that what was originally seen as a yawner of a race for the six-term incumbent has become unexpectedly competitive, drawing national attention and big bucks from both parties' congressional campaign committees.

The most recent poll in the district, which sprawls across southern Minnesota, showed the race a statistical tossup between Gutknecht and Walz, a teacher from Mankato who spent more than two decades in the National Guard. National political handicapping services also have reflected the tightening of the race, giving the district only a "lean Republican" rating.

Reflecting that situation, the National Republican Congressional Committee has broadcast a commercial attacking Walz's stance on immigration. The Democrats' campaign committee parried that with an ad attacking Gutknecht for voting against increased military benefits while backing a pay raise for members of Congress.

In successive days this week, the New York Times and Los Angeles Times ran stories on the race, with the latter characterizing it as one of a growing number of races in which GOP incumbents "are struggling this month against a powerful current of discontent."

Areas of agreement

On several issues Tuesday, the difference between the candidates was rhetorical, or merely muted. They agreed that the health care system is broken, and while Gutknecht favors market-oriented solutions, Walz called health care a basic right for all Americans. Both pledged allegiance to the family farm and agreed that families need help to cope with the skyrocketing costs of higher education.

And while both said they supported the basic idea of the Dakota, Minnesota and Eastern Railroad project, which will cut across the entire district, they said they want it to be both safe and financially solid.

On the war in Iraq, both said that it's vital that Iraqis themselves take the lead in providing security in that country, but beyond that, they diverged. "This house is on fire, and it's someone's responsibility to put it out -- that's our civilian leadership," Walz said. He called for "less arrogance, bring in the experts" and said the nation needs to engage in more aggressive diplomacy.

Gutknecht said that while "negotiating's fine," when the enemy straps suicide bombs on teenagers, "try negotiating with people like that." After a trip to Iraq last summer, he said, he came to the realization that "the situation was much worse than I was led to believe. And I had the courage to tell the president and you."

The Rochester Post-Bulletin and other  First Congressional District papers have found clear differences between the candidates. The Post Bulletin wrote in mid-September in an editorial titled "Clear choice in 1st District"

The debate over national security proposals has spilled over into district congressional races. Even though Gutknecht indicated his positions are open for change, voters appear to have a clear choice between Gutknecht and Walz.

Has Gutknecht changed so much since September 15 that reporters covering debates can't tell a difference now?

KTTC: TIGHT TO THE FINISH
A local television station has a different take on the St. Mary's debate:

Chris Woodard
KTTC TV
 
ROCHESTER, MN -- For more than a decade the district one congressional seat has been held by the same man.
 
Year after year Gil Gutknecht has sent his opponents packing, but admits that this is the toughest race he's ever been in.
 
It's all in the fight to be your next congressman.
 
Tim Walz is trying to stand tall where many before him have fallen, in a battle with Gil Gutknecht. 
 
For 12 years Gutknecht has been Minnesota's first district congressman and he's leaning on that experience in one of the state's tightest races.
 
Gutknecht says, "I think it's like a heavyweight champion, I mean if you've been in fights before you have the ability not only to deliver a punch but to take one"
 
Gutknecht says right or wrong seniority does help in Washington and because he's been there for so long he has an advantage when it comes to getting things done for our area.
 
Walz couldn't be any more different. 
 
The teacher from Mankato has no political experience but he sees that as an advantage.
 
Walz says, "Not being the career politician gives me the perspective of what is really bothering people and what's there hopes and dreams for the future and it makes it easy for me to speak about it."
 
Both candidates say if elected keeping this country safe and dealing with Iraq will be their top priority.
 
Walz says, "We have to truly secure this nation and we have to understand that Iraq is draining resources from that."
 
Gutknecht says, "In the end the future of Iraq belongs to the Iraqis and we need to continue to put pressure on the Iraqi government to step up and police their own streets."
 
Closer to home the candidates understand that a loan to the DM&E railroad is a crucial issue to voters in this area.
 
Walz says, "This discussion we're having on DM&E should have taken place on the front end the reason it didn't is we have a broken government that is sending things through in the middle of the night."
 
Gutknecht says if the loan does go through government needs to make sure it is repaid, "I've never been a big fan of the railroad but on the other hand I recognize representing 600-thousand people across the length of Southern Minnesota that number one we do need railroads."
 
An agreement on what is important can't hide the difference of opinion on how to attack those issues and those differences ensure that this will be a fight to the finish.

NORWEGIANITY:  ON THE RADICAL CENTER

The Wege considers Tim Walz's centrism in light of a new WaPo column:

E.J. Dionne sees the rise of the "radical center," a group you may not have heard from before. My guess would be because there aren't any in Congress right now, although Dionne says that will change on November 7.

There has long been talk about the rise of a "radical center," made up of voters essentially moderate in their philosophical leanings but radical in their disaffection with the status quo. This looks to be the year of the radical center. If it is, the Democrats will win. And if they win, their task will be to meet the aspirations of a diverse group of dissatisfied and disappointed Americans. Not an easy chore, but one that certainly beats being in the opposition.

[E.J. Dionne, Washington Post op-ed]

Dionne doesn't mention Tim Walz, but he should have. Centrism is OK with me so long as the middle-of-the-roader understands that even the center can take hard stands on hard issues instead of constantly ducking and covering à la Clinton-Schumer et al.

CITY PAGES: MOVIN' ON UP

The City Pages' The Blotter reports that the Walz-Gutknecht contest has moved up o the national Journal's rankings:

The First Congressional District, meanwhile, vaulted up 13 places, to 39th on the list. In that race incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht is facing a robust challenge from retired school teacher and National Guard Vet Tim Walz. The most recent poll indicates that the race is a virtual dead heat.

OLLIE OX UPDATE
THE LIFE FANTASTIC: YAWN AT THIS
Bill at The Life Fantastic has a few choice words for the Strib's coverage for the St. Mary's debate in "Yawn at this. . ."

 

Thanks Bob.  Thanks a whole lot.  So you covered the Walz-Gutknecht race. Thank you. Thank you for calling this a "yawner." So very insightful. You really do have your finger on the pulse of this race. Just ask Ollie, this has truly been a "yawner" since day one.  Ask the 1,394 Donors on the Netroots site. We only throw our money at "yawners." (And I put myself on that list as donor #6(for the sake of full disclosure)). And since you asked (which actually you didn't) you want a yawning difference. Yawn at this. . .

There's a YouTube at TLF that illustrates another clear difference between the candidates.

New York Times: Suddenly, A Contest

What took the New York Times (and the DCCC) so long?:

By CARL HULSE

Democrats believe they have identified a new political opportunity in the First  District of Minnesota, where they are beginning a late television campaign against Representative Gil Gutknecht, seeking to put a once-safe Republican seat into play.

Mr. Gutknecht, left, is being challenged by Tim Walz, a high school teacher and football coach with the added cachet of two decades in the National Guard.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pumping money into an advertisement criticizing Mr. Gutknecht for voting against added military benefits while backing Congressional raises. The National Republican Congressional Committee weighed in with an attack against the Democrat on immigration.

Two weeks.  Volunteer for Tim Walz or give via the ActBlue Netroots Candidate page.

   

A look at Gil Gutknecht's health care proposals

In today's Washington Post, staff writer Christopher Lee looks at Rand's major new study of consumer-driven health care plans in "Health Plans Raise Concerns; Study Says New Model Leads Some to Skip Necessary Care."

The articles defines these plans as:

In contrast to traditional plans, in which beneficiaries typically pay a modest deductible and co-payments of $15 or $20 for visits to the doctor, the new plans can require consumers to shell out hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars of their own money for drugs, doctors and hospital care before most coverage kicks in.

The annual deductible in a consumer-directed plan is generally $1,050 to $2,000 for individuals and $2,100 to $4,000 for families -- far higher than the average $220 deductible in a traditional employer-sponsored health plan. Premiums tend to be lower, however.

Consumer-directed plans have been heavily promoted by the Bush administration as a way to rein in spiraling health-care spending by giving consumers a financial incentive to shop around for the best care at a reasonable price -- and to get only the care they need.

The new plans often are linked to health savings accounts (HSAs), created by Congress in 2003 to allow consumers to set aside tax-free dollars to pay for medical expenses.

In short, low-premium, high deductible ( or catastrophic) insurance plans combined with health savings accounts.  This caught our attention, as it mirrors the health care proposals Gutknecht related to the Fairmont Sentinel earlier in October.  Gutknecht adds the wrinkle of "minute clinics":

When it comes to health care, the nation is at a crossroads, according to Gutknecht. He said we are either going to have government-controlled health care, which he opposes, or a system driven by the market to achieve better prices.

There need to be more choices for health care and Gutknecht suggests a few concepts that show promise:

o “Minute clinics” are working in some areas. The clinics are located in stores or malls and require a monthly fee, about $39, and basic medical care is provided.

“Combine that with catastrophic insurance policies and a health savings account and you can provide a lot of families with relatively inexpensive health care,” Gutknecht said.

How well would this package work? The Washington Post reports:

But are the plans working as advertised? Yes and no, the Rand study found.

With consumer-directed plans, most employers save at least 10 percent on health costs. A few reported saving as much as 25 percent, although some of the "savings" may simply be a shift in costs to workers, the researchers found.

And people enrolled in the plans do appear to be cutting back on their health care. Studies show a 4 to 15 percent reduction in spending for those without an HSA in their plan, and a 2 to 7 percent reduction for those with one.

That reduction is both good and bad, the Rand study found. In some cases, for example, the greater cost-sharing burden on consumers meant that they did not go to the emergency room for problems that did not require it. At other times, people were forgoing necessary care and potentially jeopardizing their health.

"The evidence is really mixed," said Melinda Beeuwkes Buntin, a Rand economist and the lead author. "There are some studies in which people are reporting that they don't fill a prescription or they don't get follow-up that's recommended by a doctor. So those two things would be cause for concern."

Another concern is that consumer-directed plans might attract disproportionate numbers of the healthy and the wealthy, leaving sicker, less affluent consumers in traditional plans. That, in turn, could force traditional plans to raise their rates even faster, since there would be fewer healthy participants to share the costs of needed care in any given year.

Rand researchers did find that the early switchers to the new plans tended to have higher incomes and be in somewhat better health than their counterparts in traditional plans, a "modest" disparity that researchers say "warrants monitoring."

They also concluded that patients are still struggling to find good, consistent information about the cost and quality of the health care they receive, the kind of data needed if the new plans are to work. The government could help establish standard measures for assessing quality, they wrote, and could remove legal obstacles to pooling data from private insurers.

"I don't think that these plans can be a panacea," for rising health-care costs, Buntin said, "but they could, if well-designed, be one part of the strategy for rationalizing our system of health insurance."

Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA, a health-care advocacy group, is not convinced. Pollack said the new plans will deter people from getting needed care, weaken traditional insurance plans by siphoning away the healthiest beneficiaries and favor wealthy participants who will get a larger tax break.

They also will do little to save on costs because these plans will still pay for the catastrophic illness and end-of-life care that is responsible for 85 percent of health-care spending annually in the United States, he said.

"Every few years people are looking for a magic bullet to deal with costs," Pollack said. "And this bullet results in the shooting of a dud."

And health savings accounts? Think Progress summarized shortfalls it found in "The Truth About Health Savings Accounts":

Multiple studies have shown that HSAs are likely to increase the number of uninsured and increase health care costs, all while costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars. In other words, President Bush is proposing to do for health care what he’s already tried with Social Security — placing more of the cost burden on individuals, while making the system more attractive to the wealthy but less effective for ordinary Americans who need health coverage most.

In September, the Journal of the American Medicial Association (JAMA) reported on a GAO study of consumer response to HSAs:

Members of focus groups organized by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) described generally positive experiences with health savings accounts but they would not recommend them to all consumers, said the government agency in a report released September 12 (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06798.pdf).

The focus group members recommended health savings accounts to healthy consumers but not to those who use maintenance medications, have chronic conditions, have children, or who may not have funds to meet the high deductibles.

The GAO report found that health savings account–eligible enrollees generally had higher incomes than those younger than 65 years enrolled in traditional insurance plans. In 2004, the report said, 51% of tax filers (combination individual and family) reporting a health savings account contribution had an adjusted gross income of $75 000 or more compared with 18% of all tax filers under age 65.

In short, health savings accounts work--for the healthy and the wealthy.

What of  "minute clinics"?  "Minute clinics" are clinics staffed by nurse practitioners who diagnose and treat a short list of common ailments.  They are well-suited for the quick access they give health consumers who don't need to consult their doctor; supporters also discuss their potential profit yielding for investors.

The medical establishment stresses the limitations of the clinics, which do not not treat chronic conditions or serious illnesses:

The American Medical Association and the American Hospital Association are wary of the trend. What is best for patients, they say, is an ongoing relationship with a doctor.

“We don’t want to see nursing care substituted for physician care,” said Dr. Edward Hill, president-elect of the AMA. “This type of clinic might not lend itself very well for continuity.”

Viewed together, Gutknecht's suggestions seem to be inadequate to the task of providing affordable, high quality health care except to those who can already afford it. Or who don't need it.

On September 1, the Owatonna People's Press reported on a health care forum Gutknecht attended with some associates ( behind a subscription firewall--the editor wants permission to run any length of quote from the OPP, so we're revising here, paraphrasing anything from the paper, regardless of how long or short the quote may be; contact the OPP for the actual text of the article).

Early morning news: GOP miscalculations and fearmongering

We have a busy day and will post as time permits.  To begin today's breakfast on the go, a  look at the Fighting First from South Dakota.

SIOUX FALLS ARGUS: MINNESOTA GOP MIGHT STRUGGLE NOV. 7:
Columnist David Kranz writes of the First:

South Dakota’s only contribution to the discussion about Nov. 7 is the House race in which Rep. Stephanie Herseth will easily win re-election.

But our Minnesota neighbors are key players in the equation. Democrats at first were concerned about holding the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton. Democrat Hennepin County State’s Attorney Amy Klobuchar is matched up against Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy in that race.

Republicans targeted that seat big time, since it was a potential gain in a Blue state that voted for Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election.

The First District House race seemed easy, with Rep. Gil Gutknecht a good bet for re-election. And Republicans were resting easy in defense of the Sixth District seat that Kennedy was vacating.

So how are those three key seats playing out?

All of the races pose problems of varying degrees for Republicans.

Roll Call recently reassessed Gutknecht and the race in the First District, which includes southwest Minnesota. The incumbent was considered solid, but writer Lou Jacobson looked again at that race and says:

“Gutknecht, the least vulnerable (of the six Republican incumbents on his list), moved from ‘solid Republican’ to ‘likely Republican.’ Geography teacher Tim Walz, an Iraq War veteran, is running a spirited but still somewhat long-shot candidacy, Minnesota politicos say.”

MANKATO FREE PRESS: GOP FEARMONGERING BEYOND THE PALE
To recover from their miscalculations, the GOP is running a fear-mongering ad.  The editors of the Free Press call them out on it in "Fearmongering campaign ads a disservice to voters":

Five years ago, the Bush administration urged television networks not to broadcast videos from Osama bin Laden because they were “propaganda.”

The latest ad from the Republican National Committee features menacing photos of bin Laden, many from a five-year-old interview, with terrifying quotes from him flashed on the screen. There is an ominous ticking time-bomb sound throughout the ad, with the last scene showing an apparent nuclear explosion.

The ad, which ran on cable outlets beginning Sunday, is more than propaganda from a desperate Republican party. The scare tactic is reminiscent of Lyndon Johnson’s infamous “daisy ad” of 1964. That was the ad showing a little girl walking through a field of daisies, ending with a nuclear explosion.

The message of both is clear: Vote for us or face annihilation.

Voters may have become accustomed to negative political advertising — the ads that twist the facts as they show video of an opponent in unflattering, fuzzy, black and white images. People realize such attacks are part of the free-for-all that is a democratic election process.

But an ad that suggests you must vote for our candidates or burn in nuclear horror, is beyond the pale. It’s a fearmongering tactic that harms the electoral process and does a disservice to voters who deserve to hear honest debate about issues such as terrorism and national security.

There is an added irony in the fact that the Republican administration hasn’t been able to capture bin Laden, who they described as America’s No. 1 enemy.

It’s understandable the Republicans are nervous. They’ve watched their poll numbers plummet amid an unpopular war with mounting casualties. Using the “nuclear option” in political ads doesn’t offer voters any reason to be sympathetic to the Republican message.

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTE: CONSERVATION LEAGUE, SIERRA CLUB ENDORSE WALZ
North Mankato's Jim Ackil writes to say he wants a congressman who will support environmentalism:

What a wonderful environment we have in Minnesota — great fishing, hunting, bicycling, walking, beautiful surroundings, not to mention the clean air and safe drinking water.

And yet, our representative in Congress, Gil Gutknecht, has done little to preserve or improve our environment. In fact, the League of Conservation Voters, which scores all representatives on their voting records in support of environmental issues, gives him the lowest rating possible this year, a zero. No wonder they and the Sierra Club, another nonpartisan environmental group, both endorse Tim Walz for Congress.

Change in the rankings: more news and netroots from Minnesota's Fighting First

MN-01: HOT AND HOTTER
McPherson Hall at Minnesota Central emailed us with the news that there were changes in the rankings by national prognosticators at CQ Reports and the National Journal. 

We share his skepticism about how much they know about conditions on the ground in Southern Minnesota, but not that expressed by distant experts about Tim Walz's chances of taking this one.

CQ Reports prefaces its new rankings with the observation: ". . .the Republicans must dominate a growing list of toss-ups to hold power."  Here's what CQ says about MN-01:

Republican Gil Gutknecht's good-natured approach has served him well for a dozen years.  But the state's southern tier is a partisan toss-up, and Democrat Tim Walz -- a teacher and a former Army National Guard officer who strongly opposes the Iraq War -- has gained increasing traction by branding Gutknecht as too conservative for his constituency.

The National Journal has moved Minnesota's Fighting First up from 49 to 36.

No wonder the Los Angeles Times reports that Gil Gutknecht is sweating in a cold October.

MINNESOTA CENTRAL: REPORTS ON THE GROUND
Minnesota Central takes Gutknecht on about his deceptive mailings about Walz's stand on immigration and on the congressman's own position about raising the minimum wage.

KTTC: CAMPAIGNS HIT HIGH GEAR
The NBC affiliate in MN-01 talks to Congressional campaign staff:

Chris Woodard
KTTC TV
 
ROCHESTER, MN -- With only 15 days and counting left until elections, campaigns all over the area are kicking things into high gear with a new sense of urgency.
 
Campaign managers say these days they literally do have the pedal to the metal.
 
While no one candidate can be everywhere at once, that's not stopping their staffs from trying to make it happen.
 
Congressional candidate Tim Walz is in Rochester today meeting with voters and trying to win their support.
 
Across the way Gil Gutknecht is back in town after spending three straight days on the road last week.
 
The Walz campaign says the meet and greets are crucial as the race winds down and that's why they try to get all of the fund raising out of the way early on.
 
Miles are piling for candidates as they travel all over the district to meet with as many voters and do as many media appearances as possible.
 
Communications Director Meredith Salsbery says, "I juggle two cell phones, they're ringing all the time. I drive the candidate usually when I'm with him and so I'll be driving and talking on two cell phones at once and it's national news organizations, it's local news organizations and regardless of who it is I do what I can to accommodate people."
 
Most campaigns seem to agree meet and greets are a priority right now but earlier efforts can also pay big rewards at time winds down.
 
Campaign Manager Nels Pierson says, "Getting volunteers at county fairs and organizing people who will come back in and put up the lawn signs or do a lot of the work for us at this time. Now it's a call to arms, it's time to get out there and get the grass roots churning."
 
A lot of the people in charge of campaigns said they are taking the polls into consideration and sending their candidates to areas that may be considered swing cities or places that are still up for grabs.
 
All this work obviously means long hours and campaign managers say 12 to 16 hour workdays for everyone involved in the campaign will be pretty common for the next 2 weeks.

Volunteer to help out the Walz campaign here.

STRIB ENDORSEMENT COMMENTARY
Firedog Lake and Down With Tyranny note the Strib's endorsement, but stress helping in MN-02. DWT writes:

The biggest surprise of the endorsements was the Star Tribune's abandonment of another rubber stamp Republican goof ball, Gil Gutknecht, in favor of Fighting Dem Tim Walz. Gutknecht was part of the "Gingrich Revolution" of 1994 and he's been as big a disappointment as the rest of that class. Gutknecht is a confused mess who has proven himself clueless on policy and catastrophic on ethics, hauling in the loots hand over first from the corporate donors whose interests he represents over and above the voters of MN-01. According to the editorial endorsement "the DFL has fielded a superior candidate in Tim Walz. A 24-year veteran of the Army National Guard, Walz delivers a blistering but authoritative critique of the Bush administration's missteps in Iraq and treatment of military veterans. But he is not a one-dimensional candidate. A football coach and Teacher of the Year at Mankato West High School, he seems to have a finger on the pulse of the district's needs and frustrations. He has issued sophisticated position papers on balancing the federal budget and reforming immigration policy. He has raised nearly $1 million in campaign contributions, a record for challengers in this district, and has shown an ability to lead by building a formidable campaign operation. Walz's party certainly takes him seriously, for he has earned the endorsement of Nebraska's Bob Kerrey and Georgia's Max Cleland, both former senators and respected Vietnam veterans. Walz radiates energy, optimism and critical thinking -- qualities Washington could use right now."

As usual, the Wege pulls no punches in communitg about the endorsements:

Make no mistake about it: any CD in Minnesota that retains their Republican representative (or elects a new one) will suffer a major loss of clout in DC. The Republicans have hammerheaded their way into political obscurity. The only question left is if they can reinvent their party, or if they're about to be eclipsed by a new conservative party that's actually conservative.

Craig's Site in Winona is pleased as well.

MONDAY AFTERNOON LETTERS: WALZMANIA

ROCHESTER POST BULLETIN LTE: WALZ WILL BE A DIFFERENCE-MAKER
Lynne Eckhart of Rochester believes that "Walz will be a difference-maker":

Tim Walz is the politician I believe will make a difference for Minnesota in Washington.

He is a straight talker and a logical thinker -- both qualities which seem to be lacking in Congress these days. Walz has an agenda for action. He has laid out specific concerns he wants to address, like benefits for our military and train safety for our community.

He has also listened to the concerns of people like me: I want fair taxes. I want adequate funding for public education. I deserve the Social Security benefits I have paid into. And I want America to never start a pre-emptive war again.

Tim Walz has addressed these issues and has a plan. In his six terms in office, Walz's opponent has voted to put what I value at risk. This incumbent congressman refuses to discuss what is important to Minnesotans because he has not supported what is important to us.

Washington needs a straight talker and logical thinker to bring us back to our values.

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTES GIL'S MONEY
Kristina Dundas worries that "Gutknecht may spend big in last-minute campaign attack":

As the election draws nearer, I am constantly thinking about the fact that Rep. Gil Gutknecht has not been using all the money he has raised. I am concerned that he and his staff are planning on using that money to attack Tim Walz late in the race.

To me that doesn’t seem like the way you should win elections. You should win an election by being the better person, and if my prediction is right, Gutknecht is not being that person.

It is time for change, and Walz is the answer

MINNESOTA MONTHLY: TOWN VS. TRAIN
Paul Scott looks at the DM & E issue in "Town vs. Train" at the Minnesota Monthly. The Post-Bulletin's Government Center blog has more in "Bypassed" and "E-coal-ogy."

The Los Angeles Times (and others): Gutknecht is sweating

The Los Angeles Times travels to lovely LaCrescent, home of Applefest, to take a look around in a battleground district.  Seems that despite the chilly October temperatures, Representative Gutknecht is breaking a sweat:

By Ronald Brownstein, Molly Hennessy-Fiske and Jenny Jarvie
Times Staff Writers

October 23, 2006

LA CRESCENT, MINN. — The temperature is dropping, but six-term Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.) is sweating more than usual for this time of year.

In his last two campaigns, Gutknecht breezed to reelection with at least 60% of the vote. But when he stopped at an American Legion hall in this small southern Minnesota town Friday, he faced several tough issues, including the House page scandal, North Korea, Iran and the war in Iraq.

"The body count in October [in Iraq] is so high — how do you feel about an exit strategy?" asked Shan Gruden, a retired teacher who supported Gutknecht in the past but remains undecided today.

Gruden's challenge to Gutknecht captures the dynamic that is widening the battlefield during the final weeks of the contest for control of the House of Representatives.

A growing number of GOP incumbents in seats once considered "safe" — including Melissa A. Hart in Pennsylvania, Ron Lewis in Kentucky, Richard W. Pombo in Tracy, Calif., and Gutknecht here — are struggling this month against a powerful current of discontent with the nation's direction, the performance of Congress and President Bush, and the war in Iraq.

Republican seats at risk have nearly tripled since January, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Then, 18 GOP seats were endangered; now, 48 are considered in play. . . . 

How do you like them apples? It was just last summer that Gutknecht said no one asked him about Iraq. The LA Times concludes:

Though Gutknecht's southeastern Minnesota district isn't as reliably Republican as the Kentucky seat, he's also betting on an ideological contrast in his struggle against Democrat Tim Walz, a high school teacher, football coach and 24-year veteran of the Army National Guard. Last week the National Republican Congressional Committee spent about $100,000 on ads accusing Walz of weakness on illegal immigration.

"There are big differences between the two of us," Gutknecht said. "If that message gets out, then I win this election 55 to 45 [percent] at least."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fired back Friday with an ad criticizing Gutknecht for voting against increases in the minimum wage while accepting pay raises, a common argument in Democratic campaigns this year.

But Iraq looms as the greatest risk to the incumbent.

In a new ad scheduled to air Tuesday, Walz stands before empty bleachers and says: "When I coached football, these stands held about 3,000 people. That's a lot. It's also the number of American soldiers who have died fighting in Iraq."

His former students now in the military, he says, "deserve a plan for Iraq to govern itself so they can come home."

Gutknecht, who traveled to Iraq in the summer, said he initially endorsed the war based on imperfect information but believed now that the U.S. must continue the fight.

"Let's be honest — a lot of people, both Republican and Democrat, voted to go in there," he said. "It may not have been involved with terrorism then, but it is now. It's like a light that's attracting all these bugs and moths."

Gutknecht's accessibility and candor impressed Gruden, the retired teacher, who came to question him at the American Legion hall here. "He seems approachable," she said.

But even after his answer, she said, she is still worried about the war and "all the graft, greed and corruption in Washington." She left for home the same way she had arrived — uncertain who would win her support.

We look forward to  seeing that ad on Tuesday.

STAR TRIBUNE: CHANGING STRIPES
The Star Tribune's editorial board endorsed Tim Walz.   Today, the political news staff files two stories about the race. In "Red or Blue? Cities changing stripes," reporter Dane Smith looks at shifting political winds in St. Cloud (MN-06) and Rochester. He writes:

Rochester used to be reliably Republican. But Olmsted County favored Bush over John Kerry by just 5 percentage points in 2004 and DFLers now control half of the legislative seats in the greater Rochester area.

Each city anchors a hotly contested congressional district. St. Cloud is in the open Sixth, where Republican state Sen. Michele Bachmann faces child safety advocate Patty Wetterling. Rochester is in the First, where six-term Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht is trying to stave off a challenge from Tim Walz, a high-school coach and National Guard veteran.

Smith talks to an assortment of Rochester residents. First up: Republican Dan Lovik:

About 150 miles away at a food court in downtown Rochester, hard-charging food sales rep Dan Lovik, pausing now and then to enter data on his laptop, voiced confidence that Republicans will pull another one out of the fire, just as they did in Minnesota in 2002, when polls showed Democrats ahead.

"No president has ever been subjected to events like these," said Lovik. Voters are temporarily taken with a multitude of expensive "bleeding heart" Democratic promises, he added, but "something will happen," a positive development in Iraq or the economy, and voters will "come to their senses."

We genuinely hope that neither party pulls another one out of the fire, as was the case in 2002.  As for voters taking leave of their senses, Smith finds people in Rochester talking about their experience in the economy:

As St. Cloud has become more fertile territory for Republicans, the Rochester area has become more politically competitive. Steve Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College, about half way between the Twin Cities and Rochester, said the area's reputation for being "rock-ribbed red" is out of date not only for Rochester and Olmsted County but for all of southern Minnesota.

"The First District as a whole is available," Schier said.

"Republicans understand their vulnerability down here or Pawlenty wouldn't have traveled to Rochester two dozen times in the last year," Schier said. "Republicans can't afford to have their margins erode further in such a large, and getting larger, county."

One Rochester voter the Republicans are at slight risk of losing is Muhammed Abu, 19, a Somali immigrant who has been in the U.S. just six years. A pre-med student at University Center Rochester, he was shopping with his family in the tiny Tawakal Halaal International Grocery store off Hwy. 14 in southeast Rochester.

Abu said he liked Peter Hutchinson's ideas but has a problem with his low poll ratings. He said he would only vote for Hutchinson "if he were to step up his game."

Otherwise, Abu said Pawlenty has made important overtures to the Somali community and he's likely to get his vote, even though "he raised taxes on cigarettes and property." Abu said he likes how Pawlenty is "always there for the troops." In the Senate race, Abu prefers Klobuchar over Kennedy.

At the Dunn Bros. coffee place north of downtown, Mike Frisch, a 46-year-old executive director of a home for chronic chemical dependents, said some very personal experiences are influencing his vote.

Social service funding under Pawlenty has been pinched and Frisch said he "can't provide the resources we used to have for people who need it." School funding cuts have changed the limits for school bus transportation, so his son can't ride the bus.

"Right now, I'm voting for Hatch," Frisch said. "Sure, he's gonna raise taxes, just like Pawlenty did, after he said he wouldn't."

Chris O'Brien had similar views. Studying an anatomy textbook in the lounge of the University Center Rochester, she said she and her husband were forced to get out of dairy farming because they couldn't compete with large factory-style operations. She's now working on cardiovascular research at the Mayo Clinic and is going back to school so she can advance in the field. Tuition increases under Pawlenty "have been a big bite for me," O'Brien said.

"My husband hasn't worked for a year and he doesn't feel with his education that he should have to work for $8 an hour," O'Brien said. "There is no middle-class anymore."

At the begining of October, Gil Gutknecht told the Bloomberg Report that Iraq, the Foley scandal, and other issues were distractions from the roaring economy:

"Voters vote their pocketbooks, and ultimately the strength of the economy will be the ace in the hole for Republicans," Gutknecht said.

While he said last week's events are "more distractions than they are pivotal to the outcome of November's elections," Gutknecht added that "it could get dangerous" if those distractions pile up.

How's that strategy working out for you, Representative Gutknecht?

Strib reporters Bob Von Sternberg looks at the effect the DM & E upgrade controversy has had on the race in "Rail plan sets off debate sparks."  We found this passage especially interesting:

The Dakota, Minnesota and Eastern Railroad (universally referred to as DM&E) has become a flash point in debates. And, according to two political scientists who live in the district, the issue could hurt the six-term incumbent.

"Gutknecht has just not said very much about it, and I think that's a big problem for him," said Chris Gilbert, from Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter.

According to Joseph Kunkel of Minnesota State University, Mankato: "Rochester is one of the strongest bases of support for Gutknecht, but it's also the strongest base of opposition to DM&E. It's a potentially winning issue for Walz because he has to cut into the Rochester vote to win."

The business establishment in Rochester has united behind the fear that the railroad operation and potential accidents along the line would pose an unacceptable risk to the clinic and the city at large. And the circumstances that led to a pending $2.3 billion federal loan to the railroad -- the biggest such loan in American history -- have raised hackles.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a former DM&E lobbyist, inserted the loan into last year's 1,000-page transportation spending bill, which Gutknecht voted for, not noticing Thune's conference-committee amendment.

"It can be attacked as a culture-of-corruption thing, saying Gutknecht was asleep on the job," Kunkel said. "It certainly points out negatively the way Congress operates."

Back in the beginning of October, MPR was interviewing Kunkel about Gutknecht's polish, not his sweat:

But Joe Kunkel, a political science professor at Minnesota State University, Mankato, says the issues may not matter in this race. This may be about Gutknecht's smooth personality and his incumbency.

Within the month, experts have come to see this race about something more than having every hair in place. Wonder why.

WINONA DAILY NEWS LTE: GUTKNECHT OUT OF STEP
Rollie Salling of Winona tells readers his view in Gutknecht out of step:

One certainly has been seeing plenty of political ads lately, especially if you watch the news. Have you noticed that, with all the ads that he has run, U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht has not once indicated any positive steps he will take to solve the nation’s problems, many of which he has helped create? If Gutknecht’s plan is to win re-election by standing on past accomplishments, he is out of step with Minnesotans in the 1st District.

NETROOTS ROUNDUP
Minnesota Central notes that while Gutknecht is has put his negative ad attack Walz on immigration into heavy rotation,  it's not an important issue to Minnesota voters. Interesting.

We'll put together a more complete netroots round-up later in the day and more news as it develops.  In the meantime, over at the ActBlue Netroots Candidate page, Walz has topped $30,000.  Contribute if you can.

Gutknecht's Disabled American Veterans ratings: out of touch in the Fighting First

Minnesota Monitor/ Vox Verax has compiled a list of DAV ratings across three years--in which Gutknecht's averages out at 23%. This is a great service, and it got us thinking about Gil Gutknecht's low rating, for the congressman has in this month alone twice publicly denied knowing anything about these ratings--on October 12 and October 19.

Given that a veteran walked out of an event after his first denial,  we would think that the congressman would have sought to learn how this important veterans' group had rated his votes.

The ratings have been part of the public discussion since July 13, when the Star Tribune published a letter by John Cole of Plymouth.  We pulled it off of Nexis for our readers, since it's no longer of the Strib's site:

I commend the July 11 letter writer who encouraged Minnesotans to acquire the "Support Our Troops" license plates. Disabled American Veterans rates our elected representatives in Washington based on their support for veterans' issues. Their ratings for 2005 are as follows:

- Rep. Jim Oberstar: 100

- Rep. Betty McCollum: 100

- Rep. Martin Sabo: 100

- Sen. Mark Dayton 92

- Rep. Collin Peterson: 60

- Sen. Norm Coleman 50

- Rep. Gil Gutknecht: 20

- Rep. Jim Ramstad: 20

- Rep. Mark Kennedy: 20

- Rep. John Kline: 0

Want to make a real difference? Vote for representatives who support the troops!

Too bad Gil Gutknecht's staff doesn't hand Strib LTEs to the boss when his name turns up.

After Cole's letter appeared in the Star Tribune, bloggers  addressed the woeful performance of some of our state congressional delegation--including that of Gil Gutknecht, who scored a woeful 20%. See these July posts at Northern Debater, U-DFL, and  DFLers.  We guess the congressman's staff doesn't pay attention to blogs.

Flash forward to this month. Veterans' issues came up for Gil Gutknecht during his October 12 rally with John Boehner at Minnesota State University in Mankato, the Minnesota Monitor reported:

In a question and answer session after the remarks, a man identifying himself as a veteran challenged Gutknecht to explain his 20% rating from the Disabled American Veterans. Gutknecht replied that he didn’t know anything about the ratings, but that he does support veterans. “We have never turned our back on wounded vets,” he said. The man walked out.

Gutknecht still didn't bother to find out about the Disabled American Veterans ratings by the time of the October 19 debate at Bethany College. Minnesota Monitor reported:

On support for veterans: Gutknecht pays lip service to supporting veterans, Walz said, but his voting record indicates otherwise, which is why he has received an "F" rating from the Disabled American Veterans. Gutknecht answered that he doesn't know anything about the ratings.

Gutknecht could have read up on the Disabled American Veterans in other ways.

He might have  followed the links on the web page about Veteran Issues on his own official congressional web site (the one taxpayers pay for); there's a link for the DAV.

The Wege sums up the situation as no one else can:

Leigh Pomeroy has a chart on how Minnesota's Congressional delegation measures up according to the Disabled American Veterans.

I can't think of any better way of figuring out who really supports our troops, and who the gasbags are.

Tight race, intense debate: Mankato MN-01 Walz-Gutknecht debate video online at TPT

Both the Mankato Free Press and New Ulm Journal reported on the standing-room only debate at Bethany Lutheran College in Mankato. Now readers can watch it online at TPT.

Click the "Minnesota Speaks Streaming Video" graphic above the grid and then select "1st Congressional District Debate 10-19-2006" from the list.

Star Tribune Endorses Walz!"

STAR TRIBUNE ENDORSES TIM WALZ!
Here's the endorsement--note that the paper endorsed Gutknecht in 2004:

First District: Walz

Since he went to Washington in 1994, Rep. Gil Gutknecht has done a good job representing the interests and conservative values of southern Minnesota, and he won our endorsement two years ago. But this year the Republican incumbent finds himself on the defensive over issues ranging from the war in Iraq (he calls himself "frustrated") to the DM&E Railroad proposal, and there's a good reason: The DFL has fielded a superior candidate in Tim Walz.

A 24-year veteran of the Army National Guard, Walz delivers a blistering but authoritative critique of the Bush administration's missteps in Iraq and treatment of military veterans. But he is not a one-dimensional candidate. A football coach and Teacher of the Year at Mankato West High School, he seems to have a finger on the pulse of the district's needs and frustrations. He has issued sophisticated position papers on balancing the federal budget and reforming immigration policy. He has raised nearly $1 million in campaign contributions, a record for challengers in this district, and has shown an ability to lead by building a formidable campaign operation. Walz's party certainly takes him seriously, for he has earned the endorsement of Nebraska's Bob Kerrey and Georgia's Max Cleland, both former senators and respected Vietnam veterans.

Walz radiates energy, optimism and critical thinking -- qualities Washington could use right now.

WINONA DAILY NEWS LTE: WALZ CLEAR CHOICE FOR 1ST DISTRICT
Phil Castrovinci of Rochester agrees that Walz clear choice for 1st District:

With less than a month to go before voters in the 1st Congressional District elect their next representative, a recent poll taken by the nonpartisan Constituent Dynamics shows that DFL candidate Tim Walz has closed the gap on the once comfortable lead held by Gil Gutknecht. This poll reflects that Gutknecht is strongly being challenged on the issues, his past voting record and his overall job performance.

Whether it is in the classroom, on the football field, or as a leader and trainer of troops for battle, Tim Walz shows us that he is ready to actively represent the interests of the people of the 1st District in the halls of Congress on our behalf.

Tim Walz has also addressed these issues in recent debates with Gutknecht on radio and on television with clarity. He has not succumbed to the attacks that have been waged against him.

Walz is a leader who will bring the needs of the district with him when elected Nov. 7.

Change is needed in Congress. The choice is clear: Elect Walz for U.S. Congress.

COMMUNITY COLUMNIST: AMERICAN DREAM OR AMERICAN FANTASY
Congress's inability to pass a minimum wage bill has been an issue in the Fighting First. Community columnist Stewart Shaw supports raising the minimum wage in American dream or American fantasy:

Welfare reform of the 1990s accomplished one goal, but tragically failed to achieve another. It resulted in a reduction of the number of people benefiting from the various public welfare programs. But it failed to reduce the number of American workers living in poverty. In fact, that number has increased in each of the years of the 21st century.

The current federal minimum wage — $5.15 per hour — was established in 1997. Increases in the cost of living require corresponding raises in the minimum wage to keep families out of poverty. Since 1997, some state legislatures have approved higher minimum wage rates. Minnesota’s is currently $6.15. But even that is inadequate for families to live above the poverty level, unless there are two wage earners. Or, if the family has only one wage earner, she or he will have to work two or more jobs.

In 1968, the federal minimum wage was $1.80 per hour. According to the Jobs Now Coalition, if it had been adjusted for inflation, that figure would now be $8.98. In Winona County approximately 20 percent of the jobs pay less than $8.98 per hour.

According to the American Community Survey, the national percentage of people living in poverty but working full time year-round in 2003 (the most recent year for which data is available) is 12.7 percent. For people living in Minnesota that figure is 7.8 percent; for Wisconsin residents, 10.5 percent. According to America’s Second Harvest, in 2006 approximately 37.3 percent of adults requesting emergency food aid are part of households with people who hold jobs.

[snip]

Surveys indicate that up to 94 percent of the American public believe that people who work full time should be able to keep their families out of poverty. Yet Congress has failed to increase the minimum wage to keep up with inflation for the past nine years. Earlier this fall several other matters were bundled into a bill that included a phased minimum wage increase. That bill failed because of opposition to one or more of its components. Congressional leaders have refused to allow our senators and representatives to vote on the single question of whether to increase the minimum wage. Congressional inaction allows poverty in our nation to increase and the American dream to grow dimmer.

NEW ULM JOURNAL LTE: WALZ FOR SOCIAL SECURITY
Gary Gossman, from Lafayette, writes in support of  Walz's position on Social Security:

TO THE EDITOR: I ask all senior citizens to support Tim Walz for U.S. Representative. He is dedicated to protect Social Security and Medicare (except for Part D).

Social Security became law when the U.S. found out hardly any seniors had a retirement plan. So, I grew up listening to my grandparents say, “Thank God for Social Security.”

In the 1960s, the U.S. found that about 70 percent of seniors had no medical insurance. So, Medicare was born. I heard my grandparents, and later my Mom and Dad say, “Thank God for Social Security and Medicare.”

In the early 2000s, the Republicans gave us Part D of Medicare and I hear few people say thanks for it.

After almost 50 years of paying my Social Security taxes, I now can say, “Thank God for Social Security and Medicare!” I certainly have no thanks for the privatization of Medicare-Part D. Imagine if we turned over the entire Social Security and Medicare system to those in charge of Medicare Part D.

When President Bush said that his Social Security program would not affect those born before 1950, I was insulted. I am grateful for Social Security and Medicare (except the privatized Part D). Senior Citizens are not selfish, we want the same benefits we receive to also be received by our kids and grandchildren when they retire.

Please vote for Tim Walz and other Democrats who will support Social Security and Medicare (except Part D). Social Security and the old Medicare must not be turned over to companies like Enron and Halliburton who only seem to care for their gross profits.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN: LIST SHOWS DM & E OWNED BY FOREIGN INVESTORS
The Rochester Post-Bulletin reports that a group of English investors own the railroad:

The ownership of the Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad has been an enigma for those affected by the railroad's expansion through Wyoming and South Dakota to transport coal from the Powder River Basin.

But through much effort, one rancher in Wyoming did get his hands on a list of DM&E stockholders back in 1998.

Even though the list is 8 years old, Kevin Schieffer, DM&E's president and CEO, has confirmed that the list of stockholders has not changed since then.

Donley and Nancy Darnell, the original recipients of the list, have fought the DM&E over the use of their land to expand the railroad line through Wyoming, and Nancy Darnell chairs a group called Mid State's Coalition for Progress, which has worked against the DM&E's proposal.

A meeting back in the summer of 1997 is what began the Darnells' fight.

"There was a little piece in the paper that said (the DM&E) was going to have a meeting about a railroad coming through, and we thought we should go to it because we live right there," said Nancy Darnell.

That was the start of the Darnells' opposition to the project and later their quest to find out who owns the railroad.

"The major reason is that at all the meetings we went to, people would always ask, 'Well, who owns the DM&E?' because people thought it may be a subsidiary of (Union Pacific) or Burlington Northern," Darnell said. "And Mr. Schieffer would always look at them with a big toothy grin on his face and say 'We are a private company so we do not have to tell you that information,' and then he would grin."

Darnell said she was most intrigued by Schieffer's response to the question.

"And (Schieffer) was so arrogant about the fact that he didn't have to tell us," said Darnell.

As a private company, the DM&E is not required to disclose any stockholder information, that is, unless that company is a railroad, because the South Dakota constitution states that the company's stocks and stock transactions are then subject to public inspection.

Nancy Darnell explained how this piece of information was found.

"There was a little lady from up by Blackhawk. She was a modest, quiet little woman, and she discovered this. At a meeting she read that out of the constitution and said, 'So you have to tell us, Mr. Schieffer.'

"(Schieffer) went ghostly pale white, and Thune was on the stage with him and said, 'Kevin is that really right?' But he was so pale and shaky that he couldn't even answer."

On the list eventually obtained by the Darnells, 94,500 shares are owned by Scottish Eastern Investment Trust, which is based in Edinburgh.

Also owning a large sum of shares is Candover Investments PLC, a company that specializes in arranging and leading large buy-outs and buy-ins and that has offices in Great Britain and Europe. [more]

As the article points out, there's nothing illegal about foreign stockholders.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN LTE: GUTKNECHT'S ADS JUST DON'T ADD UP
Rochester's David J. Hensen tells readers Gutknecht's ads just don't add up :

It's surreal to see Gil Gutknecht's television ads claiming that his opponent, Tim Walz, will spend so much money and raise taxes. As with nearly all political ads, of course, the math in the ad is misleading.

What is true, however, is that federal spending during the Bush administration and with Republicans holding both houses of Congress has increased, as an annual percentage, more than at any time in the past 40 years. And that's not even counting the items off budget, as the war.

Perhaps Gutknecht's point is that it's OK to spend outrageously but not to pay for it.