We chuckled at this report in Time's Real Clear Politics Blog:
Reports yesterday that White House officials gave political briefings to some ambassadors and political appointees -- and the briefings themselves -- offer an insight into which races Karl Rove and Sara Taylor think, or thought, offer Republicans the best shots at picking up House seats in 2008.
WaPo posts [PDF] the list, along with correspondence between Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden and State Department officials. Find the list of targeted races on page 32 of the pdf.As NRCC Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) said last week, there isn't much mystery, but it has to be a gut-wrenching moment for incumbent members when they see the White House has actually written their name down on a list.
The list can be broken into a few rough categories:
1) Michael Flanagan Freshmen: The beneficiaries of the '06 wave, in any other year, many would not have been successful . . .
2) Because They're Freshmen: The most difficult race any incumbent ever runs is the first race for re-election. In 2006, Democrats threw money at WA 05, where Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R) was running her first re-election bid, even though she went on to win with 56%, because she was a freshman. Republicans are likely to use the same throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks technique with Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN 08), Heath Shuler (D-NC 11), Joe Donnelly (D-IN 02), Harry Mitchell (D-AZ 05), Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ 08), Michael Arcuri (D-NY 24), Charlie Wilson (D-OH 06) and Tim Walz (D-MN 01).
Doesn't sound too promising for the Republican Four-pack in the First.
Also on the Rove list is Collin Peterson, MN-07, whom Real Clear groups into the The Long-Term Projects:
Some members defy the odds and become entrenched in districts that otherwise does not cast votes for their party. . . .they may be able to pick off the districts when those incumbents retire. The GOP would do better to focus on local races and build a bench in some of these seats.
If the NRCC is as astute politically in the Seventh as it is in the First, look to Tom Cole to be paging Minnesota Senator Joe Gimse (Willmar) or Minnesota Rep. Ron Shimanski (Silver Lake). Rumored contender Eric Hoplin has taken up blogging, a sign we take to mean that he's put away his congressional ambitions as he heads off to grad school.
Comments