Another NRCC tale: being Tom Reynolds

The last time Bluestem Prairie mentioned New York Republican Representative Tom Reynolds--so far as we can determine--was October 13, 2006. At the time, Reynolds was still  chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee,  Gus Walz had just been born, and things weren't going so well for Reynolds or Gil Gutknecht.

Little Gus is quite a handful these days, as any healthy 16-month-old is, Gutknecht is a lobbyist, and Reynolds has announced he's retiring from Congress. The WaPo writes of the rising and falling arc of his leadership:

Elected near the apex of Republican power in 1998, Reynolds rose quickly on the strength of his forceful personality, fundraising chops and tactical acumen to the GOP leadership table and the position of potential Speaker-in-waiting. But a series of events eroded his standing, as the disastrous 2006 election, the demise of the New York Republican brand and his supporting role in a pair of scandals reduced Reynolds to what he is today -- an endangered member of the minority with scant prospects for future advancement. . . .

. . .Further eroding Reynolds' position was the revelation last month that the NRCC's former treasurer, Christopher Ward, allegedly transferred several hundred thousand dollars out of the committee's coffers for his own benefit, mostly on Reynolds's watch. Ward's actions, the lack of a proper audit of the committee's books for several years and the enormous debt -- now pegged at $19 million, according to Roll Call -- left over from Reynolds' tenure have served to raise questions about his oversight of the committee. . .

. . .As Democrats eagerly point out, Reynolds' impending departure means that five of the six elected Republican leaders from the start of the 109th Congress are now gone or going -- Hastert, DeLay, Reynolds and retiring Reps. Deborah Pryce (Ohio) and John Doolittle (Calif.). Only Blunt is still around, and all five of those seats have either flipped or are in danger of doing so; DeLay's seat went Democratic in 2006, Democrats captured Hastert's seat in a special election earlier this month and Reynolds' and Pryce's districts are high on Democratic target lists. Doolittle's seat looks relatively safe for the GOP, but only because the scandal-tarred incumbent is retiring. . . .

Yesterday's Strib carried an Associated Press article about GOP House chances in the November elections that began:

The news just keeps getting worse for Republicans in this year's campaigns for Congress.

When New York Rep. Tom Reynolds announced he was retiring Thursday, that made it 26 current GOP lawmakers who are calling it quits, opening up chances for Democrats this November. Only seven seats are being given up by the Democrats, who see bright opportunities to fatten their majority in the House — and the Senate as well. . . .

How will this play out in the First? Read below the fold to find out.

First of all, Minnesota's Republicans will be playing defense on their their three remaining House seats, with the Third being most in play. The U.S. Senate race will also chew up resources.

Second, we anticipate special interest PACs on both sides having more influence than ever before in the First, thought the pauperization of the NRCC may dictate more conservative PACs dumping money into the District. Already, television and radio ads have both attacked and praised Walz.

Third, when a GOP contender gains the endorsement (if an endorsement is indeed made) next Saturday, we look to see a flurry of  conservative and big-business-related PAC contributions to that candidate's coffers before the March 31 deadline for the FEC's Q1 reporting period. So far, the conservative and allied PACs have not invested in the race, waiting for the endorsement. Moreover, many of the district's traditional GOP contributors have sat out waiting for the party's nod. Thus, the report from the winner at the GOP endorsing convention in Albert Lea is likely to look quite robust.  That is, if the outside groups determine that the seat is indeed a possible Republican pick-up.

Finally: Will Walz have a healthy FEC report of his own? Given his lightning and firm response to the fear-mongering television ads in the First last month--and his subsequent vote on the side of the angels with regard to the surveillance issue, we're guessing that recovered spine will help the bank book. Perhaps even more important, the combination of high rankings by progressive economic bread-and-butter groups like the Drum Major Institute and the district's competitive should bring contributions to Walz's re-election campaign. These may well be small-dollar individual contributions along with liberal, progressive, and labor PACs.

We look forward to reading all of the candidates' FEC quarterly reports.

 

Comments

[MinnesotaCentral]

Regarding the NRCC “inappropriate withdrawals”, it should be noted that Tom Cole (OK) and John Kline (MN) were the responsible for oversight. Rumor has it that Cole got passed over for a slot on the Appropriations Committee (it went to Jo Bonner over Jeff Flake; Flake being the Fiscal Hawk thus proving that the Republicans are using Earmarks for campaign fodder not real action. John Doolittle, who is mentioned in the story as scandal-scarred, and John Lewis, who is also being investigated, are still on the Committee. ) Kline has been very quiet on the subject. If they can’t watch their own monies, should we be surprised by the fiscal mismanagement ?