Bluestem Prairie: news about Tim Walz (MN-1)

Mysterious southern Minnesotan voters baffle smart people

In Minnesota Is Not Massachusetts, Smart Politics has some rather unflattering things to say about the DFL's performance at the polls. An interesting analysis that is no doubt extremely substantial, though we wonder at the wording of this passage:

In other words, if the DFL is carrying the ‘right message’ for Minnesotans, how is it that that the Republican Party held the governorship in 2006, held 6 out of 7 Congressional seats since 2006, and appears to have held, subject to the recount, the most fiercely fought Senate race in state history?

Since the Republicans don't hold six congressional seats among the state's eight congressional districts, we think Ostermeier is only writing in the smart prose above about those congressional seats that Republicans held in 2006. The passage itself is certainly a lesson in smart style.

Were we to apply Ostermeier's clear diction and crystalline sentence construction to a discussion of the congressional seats and the statewide constitutional offices held by the Democrats since 2006, the passage might read something like this:

In other words, if the RPM is carrying the ‘right values/ principles’ for Minnesotans, how is it that that the Democratic Party held the attorney general office in 2006, held 10 out of 10 Congressional seats since 2006 (with a gain of one that year),  held a Senate seat in 2006,  and gained two additional two statewide constitutional offices in 2006, though it appears to have lost, subject to the recount, the most fiercely fought Senate race in state history?

It would be apparent to nonpartisan observers that a plurality – if not a majority – of statewide or district-wide Minnesotans are actually voting for Democrats in these high profile contests save one. Indeed, both questions--Ostermeier's and our own imitatio--remain in our mind after reading the learned analysis.

We are less impressed with the scholar's acumen when we find the doctorate of political science glossing over The Mysteries of Southern Minnesota's Recent Voter Behavior, which seem to puzzle political scientists everywhere:

Only Tim Walz (CD-01) successfully met the challenge to ride the Democratic wave into office, and he was clearly aided in 2006 by numerous gaffes made by Gil Gutknecht during his last term in office.

There must be something in the water up in the Cities that renders Walz's surprise--but definitive--victory in 2006 and this year's landslide unfathomable to people who are much smarter than your ordinary blogging heifer.

We tend to think that Walz won his seat in 2006 by out-hustling and out-organizing Gutknecht, who was feeling pretty snug. Another factor in the 2006 race was the deliberate and strategic organizing by the MN-01 DFL after redistricting. A strong tail wind didn't hurt, nor did Walz's unpretentious personality and skills gained in teaching, coaching, and soldiering.

Nah--those sorts of things on the ground couldn't matter, and so we see a DFL win explained by smart people as a mere Republican loss brought on by gaffes. Ostermeier is silent about Walz's 2008 win, so smarter people will just have to repeat that Walz is a good fit for the district or whatever the current conventional urban wisdom might be.

RPM Chair Ron Carey has launched one chestnut that posits that Walz's campaign spending "bought" the election, and we suspect we'll be hearing more of this one. Our disaffected pachyderm friends in the First tell us that Second District Republican Congressman John Kline would like Brian Davis to run again. This being the case,  we doubt people smarter than we are will be blaming the 2008 GOP debacle in the MN-01 race on the candidate's gaffes, general haplessness and lack of appeal for the district's voters.

Instead, smarter people than blogging bovines will continue to call Davis "formidable," despite the fact that he had raised over $1 million by the pre-general election reporting deadline in October (see line 24 here) to get less than 33 percent of the vote. This is as formidable a loss as we know of in southern Minnesota.

The new RPM platitude is to point to Walz's fundraising as the culprit. A contrast of the MN-01 contests in 2004 and 2008, both presidential years in which the MN-01 race featured an IP candidate, might be a good starting point for determining the actual barrier for Davis. Indeed, Davis's fundraising and the duration of his campaign provide a sharp contrast to the bid by last-minute DFL candidate Leigh Pomeroy in 2004.

Pomeroy raised a $55,910 during his entire five-month campaign, launched in July 2004 when health issues forced endorsed DFL candidate Joe Mayer to withdraw from the race. In contrast,  Davis first announced his bid for Congress in the unlikely confines on Representative Walz's own office, which Davis was visiting on behalf of ASTRO in April 2007. Davis didn't file his FEC papers until June 1, 2007, but we understand some very smart people in the Beltway and the Cities were already talking to him about running by then.

Davis thus had over a year more than Pomeroy in which to gain name recognition; purists  might point to the endorsement and primary process, but even so, Davis had months more in the public forum and far more walking around money than Mr. Pomeroy enjoyed.

Despite a much shorter time to get to know the public and a comparative teensy treasury, Pomeroy not only received a greater percentage of the vote (35.59%) in 2004 than Davis did in 2008 (32.93%), but the prof and wine critic also received a greater number of votes (115,088) than did the Mayo oncologist (109,453).

Thus, when we turn to the dollar per voter ratio, Pomeroy raised $.49 per vote received, while Davis's ratio is $9.13 per vote.  And remember,  we're pumping up the DFL dollars here : the Pomeroy fundraising includes some money that came in post-election, while the Davis figure does not. (Walz raised $12.88 per vote gained--again, a figure that will change when the post-election reports are out; we will also be able to compare spending per vote).

Smart people will probably continue to ponder Southern Minnesotans' lack of interest in Brian Davis and will in time come up with explanations that are just as clever as their analysis of the 2006 Walz victory. It certainly can't be because of any weakness in a formidable candidate. We can't wait.

Photo: Anthropologists captured this image of southern Minnesotans in a recent expedition.

The unbearable sloth of being G.R. Anderson, Jr.: from our archives

Is there a worse hack than G.R. Anderson, Jr., in the Twin Cities'  press corps?  He never met a Republican talking point about Congressman Walz he didn't wholeheartedly recycle (just as he has a hard time getting basic facts right).

The wet sloppies for hapless candidate Brian Davis (whom Anderson has repeatedly called "formidable", even after the dude raised over $1 million  to score only 32.9% of the vote, the lowest percentage of any major party candidate since the First was redistricted in 2002) are one thing.

But more illustrative of Anderson's severe sloth is his citation of  Ron Carey's haircut quip about Walz as if this gem is oh-so-clever.

How lazy is Anderson? A piece from our archives illustrates just how lazy the reporter assigned the Walz beat at MinnPost really is:

Breaking skin: Republican spokesters embrace recycling

While the first district Republicans' endorsed candidate rejects government programs to help incubate Southern Minnesota's nascent renewable energy industry, we can report this evening that Bluestem Prairie has discovered that the pachyderm party at least supports recycling.

However, Scripture reminds us that re-use isn't always the best option. We recall that memorable analogy from the Gospels that tells us to pour new wine into new skins, lest the old wineskin burst and leave one heckova mess to clean up.

And hence a quip in the "breaking news" of Brian Davis's endorsement may indeed indicate that something's broke with Republican congressional campaigns.

In Mayo doctor Brian Davis gets GOP nod in First District, the state GOP chair speaks:

Prior to the vote, state Republican Chairman Ron Carey urged delegates to unite to defeat Walz, whom he said "masqueraded" as a conservative when he ousted Gil Gutknecht in 2006.

"The only conservative thing about Tim Walz was his haircut," Carey said. . . .

Now, where and when did we hear that before?  Oh yeah,  Minn. Roundup: Walz  a Legit Barrier to Gutknecht in 1st District, a New York Times article published on October 17, 2006:

Republicans are trying to emphasize what they portray as Walz’s liberal outlook, which they said will not play well with voters who voted in favor of Bush both in 2000 and 2004.

“The only thing conservative about Tim Walz is his haircut,” state party spokesman Mark Drake told CQPolitics.com.

The NYTimes and CQPolitics teamed up to share coverage in the 2006 elections.

Minnesota wasn't the only place nor Walz the only Democratic candidate against whom the elephants rallied this punchline. Witness a 2006 ad against Montana's Jon Tester:

Earlier this week, the NRSC released both a television and radio ad centered on Tester's trademark buzz cut. Both are set in a fictional barbershop and feature the punch line: "Conservative haircut. Liberal values.

Like Walz, Tester unseated an incumbent. 

We knew that the National Republican Congressional Committee was short on cash, but we're surprised to see a new candidate's chances poured so recklessly into the old skin of an unsuccessful slogan.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are awfully quiet about Walz's ranking as a centrist by the nonpartisan National Journal. We think they are so far to the extreme right that the center looks far, far way to the left. It's quite likely that Southern Minnesota's common sense voters are closer to that center as well.

Anderson must think he's pretty clever to cite the RPM chair's dimwitticism, as do Ron Carey and his own hacks. Somehow, the fact that repeating this line didn't impress Southern Minnesota's voters in two back-to-back election cycles hasn't sunk in for Carey or the stenographers like Anderson who find this sort of thing fresh and enticing. 

Perhaps Anderson simply lives for scraps of fawning attention from Ron Carey's favorite online hack.  And while we hope Anderson might consider addressing that neediness in the privacy of an office of a skilled professional, we have to wonder what stake the MinnPost editors and proprietors have enabling Anderson's infatuation with the Republican Party's definition of Congressman Walz.

Update: Perhaps the MinnPost editors might wish to review our post, Money doesn't change everything: votes and GOP fundraising in DFL congressional districts, before they allow Anderson to slip the word "formidable" in front of Davis's name again.

We would, of course, accept a compromise.

If the MinnPost editors agree to qualify the DFL  MN-01 candidates in 2002 and 2004 as "formidable" (after all, each received a greater percentage of the vote on Election Day against Gutknecht than did Davis against Walz,  while each raised a mere fraction of the money that Davis raised and spent this cycle), we'd be satisfied. [end update]

Second update: Ron Carey whines about Davis being outspent. However, it's interesting to do the due diligence and make the comparison that Anderson wasn't able to muster. Walz's 2006 pre-election filing shows that Walz had spent $697,445.19 by the time of the final fundraising report sent to the FEC before that year's election. This year, Davis had spent $742,052.36 by the time of the pre-election report. Davis's bid simply failed to catch the attention of voters and those willing to fund campaigns.

Walz's appeal to people in his district fueled his successful fundraising, and the percentage of the incumbent's dollars from within the district and state made his fundraising resemble more that of a challenger than an officeholder. Carey can shriek as much as he wishes that Walz bought the election, but the fundraising patterns reveal that Minnesotans in and out of the First Cognressional disitrict invested in an elected official whose work they appreciate. [end update].

Mankato Free Press: Local Republican activist channels basic cable

The Mankato Free Press takes a look at local reaction to Tim Pawlenty's observations at a GOP governors' meeting:

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, speaking to fellow Republican governors in Florida last week, said the Republican Party is in deep trouble, losing its ability to compete in large swaths of America and ceding key blocs of voters to the Democrats. . .

. . .Area Republicans, however, aren’t as gloomy as some of the GOP’s national leaders...

In GOP: The party's not over, we found this gem:

[Paul] Bade considers Obama’s rise to be similar to that of Adolph Hitler’s in the 1930s, and he believes there’s an outside chance that America is headed for a dictatorship. More likely is a slide to socialism or, perhaps, just an inept presidency, he said.

“I’m almost expecting the Obama administration to make a botch of things,” Bade said. “They’re too ideologically socialist, and a lot of their ideas are impractical. They just don’t add up.”

Now where have we heard this before?  Oh yeah:

The Atlanta Constitution wrote At times, you wonder how ‘Comedy Central’ could survive without Georgia. We think there'd would always be Southern Minnesota's GOP true believers like Bade in case the Daily Show comes up short for material. At least Georgia  Congressman Paul Broun is a Lawmaker sorry about Obama slam. (And the meme isn't original to Broun nor recent, as this February 2008 post by David Neiwert demonstates). Bade explains his own take on "Ultimate Security" elsewhere online

It's telling for the fortunes of First District Republicans when Senator Dick Day is the voice of reason:

State Sen. Dick Day ran for Congress this year but saw his party opt for a more socially conservative Republican, who lost badly to Democratic Congressman Tim Walz. Day said the GOP needs to stand first for responsible governing — particularly in spending.

The budget deficits run up by the Republican-controlled federal government “drove me crazy,” Day said. And he thought his party’s focus on abortion, gay marriage bans and other social issues — at a time when Americans were losing their jobs and homes — didn’t sit well with voters.

“Hey, I don’t blame people,” he said of those who chose to punish the GOP in federal elections. . . .

. . .Day thinks there may be a backlash when the cost of Obama’s spending proposals begin to add up. At the same time, he doesn’t rule out the possibility that Democrats — with universal health care, tax cuts and programs aimed at helping the middle class, more regulation on corporate America — are offering what voters genuinely want.

“Maybe people want more government,” Day said. “I could be on the wrong side. I’m smart enough to realize it.”

Day lost September's Republican primary by a slightly less embarrassing margin than that enjoyed by the far more socially conservative candidate in the general election.

Friday digest: Grand Meadow BBQ-ed Walz gubernatorial bid edition

Congressman Walz visited a class of meddling kids (his favorite kind) on Wednesday, according the Austin version of the Post Bulletin in Students grill their Congressman:

Congressman Tim Walz, who last week was re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives for a second term, faced tough questions Wednesday from some of his biggest critics: students at Grand Meadow High School who wanted to know what he was going to do to secure their futures.

Walz, DFL-Mankato, spoke to students about his role in Congress, and about their own roles in the country's future. Students asked a range of questions, from where Walz lives when he spends his weeks in Washington, D.C., to what he plans to do about the national debt, failing economy and job losses. Many of Walz's responses emphasized the importance of education.

The version posted under a tamer headline, Students quiz Walz, includes an interesting Q & A session. Our friends who speculate about a potential gubernatorial bid may latch on to this item:

Walz also remained mum on whether he plans to run for governor in 2010.

"Right now I'm focusing on getting through this re-election, so no decision yet," said Walz.

Update: The Albert Lea Tribune reports in Rep. Walz speaks with high schoolers that the congressman also visited Albert Lea's high school. Walz won in school mock elections in his district, according to 75000 kids make choices in election.[end update]

Mostly, Minnesotans can't help but think about last week's election because of the Senate recount. The Mankato Free Press editorial board notes that the Acrimony over Senate race grows. Conclusion:

Voters and average citizens probably thought the political fighting and acrimony should have ended Nov. 4. Unfortunately, there appears to be a few more weeks or months of political nastiness they will have to endure.

Discourse simply isn't what it used to be in the Key City. The  Free Press has shut down its online forum, the paper reports in Forum shut down after users go too far.  Money quote:

“I don’t want to tell people they don’t have a right to swear — they do. Just not at my party.” — Free Press Publisher Jim Santori, explaining the reasons behind the decision to shut down the forum on this Web site.

We'll miss the insanity. 

Coleman supporters often imply that only Franken can benefit from the recount. Not all votes will go Al's way; some shifts occurred in the recent pre-recount audit. The Cottonwood County Citizen reports in Routine audit yields extra vote for Coleman in county:

After a few days of seeing vote corrections land on the Franken side, Republican Senate Candidate Norm Coleman received some good news from Cottonwood County--he gained one vote.

The error was found during a routine audit of county scanning equipment on Wednesday. Cottonwood County Auditor Jan Johnson said a voter used a pencil (instead of a pen) and didn't mark the ballot dark enough.

Consequently, the vote was not read by the scanner. Only two of the county's 28 precincts were tested on Wednesday.

However, Johnson says the public should not expect a major change, once next week's local recount is complete. . . .

The Worthington Globe talked to auditors in Nobles, Rock, and Murray Counties for the article Ballot keepers. The county officials have been busy as bees in Buddhist eaves:

Since election night, [Nobles County Auditor Sharon] Balster has had to meet special requests from both the Coleman and Franken campaigns — including making copies of all of the tapes from the counting machines, providing information on the number of absentee ballots mailed out, returned, accepted and rejected. Both political parties had representatives present at last Friday’s board of canvass meeting and Monday’s post-election review.

“My list of things to do is enormous,” Balster said.

Newly elected GOP state rep Greg Davids puts his narrow rematch victory over Ken Tschumper into perspective for the Rushford Tri-County Record:

"We feel very fortunate (to win) because the congressional candidate (Republican Brian Davis) got 33 percent in the district, the presidential candidate (Republican John McCain) got 42 percent, and I got 51 percent. So we're excited."

The 2006 margin was so close that it triggered an automatic recount in the state house district. A Republican friend in the First shared news that Davids has been mentioned as a potential candidate to run for the congressional seat in 2010, but we've heard no more about this rumor. Since Davids retains his seniority in the Minnesota House after sitting out a term, it is likely that he will garner his share of earned media.

The 2008 GOP congresssional candidate in the First questioned the emergency food shelf aid in the Farm Bill; this may not have been the cycle to challenge such programs. Federal aid to food pantries is not enough to meet the need and is intended to be a supplement to private support. The unfortunate need for emergency food assistance is clear as we read the district's papers.

The Owatonna Peoples Press notes that about ten percent of Steele County's population is getting helping from the food shelf in Boy Scout food drive kicks off this weekend.  Steele County residents should give what they can:

On Saturday, Boy Scout troops from all over Steele County will be out in the county collecting food donations from people’s door steps beginning at 9:30 a.m. All donated food will be sent to the Steele County Food Shelf.

Tom Barry, district executive for the Game Haven Council (which oversees Steele, Dodge and Goodhue counties), said they are looking for a variety of different foods, including canned fruits and vegetables, soup, pasta and flour, to name a few.

“We hope that people have their food out by about 9 a.m. this weekend,” Barry said. . . .

. . .If people miss putting out the food for Boy Scouts on Saturday, there will be two other drop-off sites. They include the Steele County Food Shelf or at the old Century 21 Building at 1836 Cedar Ave., located next to Godfather’s Pizza. Both drop-off sites will be open from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturday.

Trom added they are looking for additional volunteers to help sort food donations at the old Century 21 building and then bring it to the Steele County Food Shelf.

If people don’t have food to donate, Trom also said monetary donations help. Because the food shelf is a non-profit, Trom said the organization is able to pay for more items at a store compared to the average dollar.

Food shelves across the district need donations.  The Waseca County News looks at local demand in Food shelf stocked, but empties fast.

Photo: Walz returning to his Mankato West classroom in his first term.  Washington's got nothing on the tough crowd in the public schools. Photo cribbed from the NYTimes.

Money doesn't change everything: votes and GOP fundraising in DFL congressional districts

A Republican friend in the First pointed out that while the percentage of the vote received by Walz's challenger fell within the range of that received by all but one of those pachyderms seeking DFL-held seats, their fundraising was far less successful than that of the Davis campaign.

We had our doubts about that observation, but a look at both voting and fundraising clearly shows our ever-reliable and right-ward acquaintance to be on the money once again. While the post-general reports of spending aren't due until December 4, the pre-election reports back up his analysis.

In the First, Davis raised $1,007,622 by October 15; he received 32.93 percent of the vote. By the time of the same pre-general report, Walz had raised $2,676,831.

While the money gap of  1:2.6 may seem large, it's dwarved by those between Republican challngers and DFL incumbents, all but one of whom received between 27.67 to 32.21. In short, the rest of the GOP contenders received a much higher return on the Republican dollar.

Ed Mathews raised $82330 by the same date, to get 31.31 percent of the vote in the Fourth. DFL incumbent Betty McCollum had raised $684,485.

Glen Menze raised under $2000.00 in the 7th to get 27.67 percent of the vote. Powerful House ag chair Collin Peterson had netted $1,100,084 for the cycle up to October 15.

Michael Cummins raised $15,805 in the 8th to 32.21 percent of the vote, providing another sharp contrast with a house committee chair. Oberstar had collected $1,909,961 for the cycle by the close of the pre-election reporting period.

Only Barbara Davis White felling far behind the pack in garnering votes, having raised $58,491 in the heavily Democratic Fifth to get 22 percent of the vote, while incumbent Keith Ellison had raised $1,410,850.

By way of contrast, all of the DFL challengers--though unsuccessful--received at least 40 percent, while raising larger campaign war chests. Steve Sarvi, who faced the greatest money gap, but no Independence Party challenger, received 42.55 of the vote. Well-funded Ash Madia drew less, at 40.85 percent, with El Tinklenberg drawing 43.43 percent; both faced a three-person race with IP candidates on the ballot.

Sarvi raised $483,469 for the cycle as of October 15; Madia had total receipts of $2,302,958; The Tink had raised $1,110,978 by the same time. Among the Republicans, John Kline raised $1,392,021 for the cycle by October 15; Erik Paulsen had raised $2,425,791in total receipts; Michele Bachmann had pocketed $2,509,179 for the cycle by the end of thereporting period. . We expect the post-general figures for both parties' candidates in the Third and Sixth to rise considerably.

We can see that Davis's fundraising was in the league of failed DFL congressional bids, while his campaign enjoyed about the same dismal results at the polls as other unsuccessful Republicans with far less coin. Readers can draw their own conclusions about the meaning of that fact.

(All the election figures here are unofficial numbers from queries of the SOS election results database this afternoon, and may change as the official tally is reported).

How about a little Steve Wonder for a numb November day?

Walz victory news coverage round-up

We're home after a good day in Mankato; headlines in Minnesota's media spell out just how good it was. The Mankato Free Press reports in Walz wins second victory:

The 1st District had long been portrayed as a Republican-leaning district, a description that may need to change.

“I think so,” Walz said at midnight. “But I don’t think there should be any talk that it’s a Democratic district either. I think it’s a pragmatic district that wants to get things done.”

For the second straight election, Walz had a strong Democratic wind at his back. But he won every single county in the district, including deeply conservative counties in southwestern Minnesota. In Pipestone County, for instance, Walz was given a 1 percentage point win by voters who preferred John McCain over Barack Obama 55-42 percent.

On the verge of giving Walz a larger margin of victory than Gutknecht ever recorded, 1st District residents were quick to compliment the freshman lawmaker.

“He’s been doing a good job,” said Kris Frohling after voting at Hosanna Lutheran Church in Mankato. “He thinks of the people. He’s a down-to-earth kind of guy.”

The Post Bulletin writes in Walz captures second  House term:

As the results continued to pour in on Election Night, Walz credited his efforts on veterans' issues, the farm bill and transportation for his victory.

"This is a performance review of how you have done, and I am very humbled by it and very honored," he said. "But I think it sets the tone for what people expect. They are not really interested in partisanship. They are interested in what you are going to get done."

The Albert Lea Tribune says Walz turns back GOP challenge for 2nd term. KAAL-TV reports Walz Wins First District. The Worthington Globe reports:

First-term Democratic Rep. Tim Walz, representing the southern counties, beat conservative Republican Brian Davis. With 93 percent of the vote counted, Walz led 189,977 (63 percent) to 99,585 (33 percent).

Walz said he thinks one reason he won was because “I did not get involved in partisan politics.”

But, there was another reason he won so big: “There was a pretty good wind at Democrats’ backs overall.”

Democrats gained nearly 20 seats in the House, which Walz said should help Barack Obama to “have a vision.”

As midnight neared, Walz said that it is time to change gears from the campaign.

“Tomorrow we put the politics away,” he said. “We start working to find solutions.”

KEYC-TV reports  Tim Walz holds Off  Challenger Davis. The Post Bulletin's Greg Sellnow writes that Rochester reflects change on voters' minds. The Owatonna People's Press postes the AP story in Walz wins another term in the First District.

Rip and Read blogger Alex reflects on the races in In Which We Reach the End & A New Beginning: Election Day, 2008.   G. R. Anderson gets Our Metro Wanker Award for his article in MinnPost.

Photo: Congressman Walz casts his ballot while his daughter Hope looks on. Photo by John Cross of the MFP.

And now a tune and shout out for Colin L., utter hip finance dude:

You can sleep in the barn, but don't bother the cow

For Brian Davis:

Star Tribune calls it for Walz

With five percent of precincts reporting, the Star Tribune has called it for Congressman Walz. We are going to go out on a limb at Bluestem Prairie and concur.

Election Day morning digest: final push edition

The Mankato Free Press reports in After ballots are cast, just wait and watch:

Three candidates for federal office were in the Mankato area Monday.

. . .Congressman Tim Walz, DFL-Mankato, was door-knocking, hand-shaking and volunteer-rallying Monday in New Ulm and at Minnesota State University in the morning and at Gustavus Adolphus College and MSU in the evening.

Walz’s Republican opponent — Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis — joined U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman for a four-city tour along Highway 14. It started in Winona at 8 a.m. and made stops in Rochester and Owatonna before coming to Charley’s restaurant in Mankato at 2:30 p.m. for a rally with area supporters and volunteers. . . .

A Republican friend who was at the Owatonna stop says that Davis wasn't introduced at the event, which was Norm-centered.

KAAL-TV reports on the Sprint to the Finish. Davis isn't mentioned as a party to a Coleman stop in Rochester. Walz says:

And Incumbent Congressman Tim Walz is busy making sure his supporters are having a good time during these final hours.

"This is game time so they feel very pepped up about it. They're ready to go we feel very confident that we've made a strong case to the public."

Fox 47 in Rochester takes A look at Democrat Tim Walz. Hotline asks if people in Southern Minnesota are Feeling Fritz'y?.

The State Department's america.gov site says Democrat Barack Obama Favored in Minnesota, Polls Show, with a subhead saying that the U.S. Senate and House races are close in MN-01. However, the rest of the article offers up little evidence to support that conclusion in the later. Rather, readers find this:

1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: WALZ VS. DAVIS

In 2006, in a wave of dissatisfaction with Republicans, Democrat Tim Walz, a high school teacher and retired Army National Guard command sergeant major, won the Minnesota 1st congressional seat, upsetting a six-term Republican incumbent.(See “Southern Minnesota's Congressional Candidates Focus on Economy.”)

In 2008, Republican challenger Brian Davis, a physician specializing in cancer, says Walz is too liberal for the district.

Walz and Davis differ over approaches to economic, energy and immigration policy, and the causes of climate change.

The Rochester Post Bulletin, in its endorsement of Walz, said the first-term congressman so far has represented southern Minnesota well, including support for alternative energy development. The paper also cited his understanding of middle-class workers’ concerns.

In the district's other daily newspapers making endorsements, only the Fairmont Sentinel (which no one can remember supporting a Democrat) endorsed Davis. Along with the Post Bulletin, the Albert Lea Tribune, the New Ulm Journal, the Winona Daily News, and the Worthington Globe endorsed Walz. The Journal and the Globe didn't endorse any other Democrat. Statewide,  the Minneapolis Star Tribune endorsed Walz. The Austin Herald did not endorse in federal races, while the Mankato Free Press made no endorsements at all.

Across the blogosphere, others are predicting a strong Walz win. We think he'll garner between 54 and 55 percent of the vote. Most friends from both major parties say they believe that we're being too conservative, and that the incumbent will get between 55 and 59 percent. One Republican suggests that Davis will be held to 38 percent; the other outlier is a Republican chum who suggests that Walz will be held to 52 percent. The third party candidate should be a non-factor. We will all know soon enough.

One of the CubeZoo bloggers picks Walz in elections { endorsements.

CQ Politics asks How Many House and Senate Seats Will the Democrats Gain? Short answer:

“First, CQ Politics now rates Democratic candidates as slightly to strongly favored to win 13 races for seats currently held by Republicans (including 10 of the 19 races in the Leans Democratic category), while just one Democratic seat is rated as leaning Republican. Second, there is a huge mismatch in the No Clear Favorite list, with 20 of the 26 races in that category for Republican seats. And third, there also is an imbalance in the parties’ upset bids: 20 races for Republican seats are rated Leans Republican to 10 races for Democratic seats rated Leans Democratic, and there are 22 Republican seats rated Republican Favored to 19 Democratic seats rated Democrat Favored.

We'll be updating readers throughout the day live from Mankato.

Monday morning digest: barnstorming edition

We lead off with analysis by CQPolitics' Bob Berenson, Dems Likely to Increase Congressional Majorities:

Using the same method that has worked well for CQ’s election analysts over decades, we’ve been tracking 481 Senate, House and governorship races for two years and have deemed an unusually high figure of 135 races as at least somewhat competitive.

On Tuesday, we at CQ Politics find out how well we did with our ratings.

But first, my own personal estimates. I predict that Democrats are likely to gain eight Senate seats and in the neighborhood of 25 House seats. With only a small handful of the 11 governors’ races highly competitive, I foresee a net gain of one for the Democrats.

The Democrats are maintaining their momentum from the 2006 midterm elections, when big gains gave the party control of both chambers of Congress. And, the success of Democratic strategists at putting dozens more Republican seats “in play” this year has made it likely that they will significantly expand majorities in both the Senate and the House.

Here's the ranking for the First:

Race Forecast: Democrat Favored

2008: Rep.

Tim Walz

(D) vs. Brian Davis (R)

2006: Walz (D) 53 percent, Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 47 percent

The Republican Party’s endorsed candidate, oncologist and neophyte politician Brian Davis, survived a Sept. 9 primary against state Sen. Dick Day. Davis now is looking to unseat Walz after his 2006 upset of six-term Republican Rep. Gutknecht, but the incumbent has a serious financial lead. 

Berenson adds this caveat:

And even those races rated Democrat Favored or Republican Favored — meaning the named party is likely to win — carry the warning label that an upset is not an unrealistic possibility.

Thus, getting and helping Congressman Walz in these last two days until the polls close on Tuesday evening is essential. The Walzians are working with the coordinated campaign on GOTV. Volunteer here.

A video clip at the Austin Herald of one of the Walz barnstorming events, Congressman Tim Walz visits Austin,illustrates that most of the stops aren't just about rallying the faithful; they're about putting walking list and call sheets for voter contact into the hands of the faithful so they have the tools to get out the vote. From the accompanying article:

Politicians made their last rounds over the weekend as U.S. Rep. Tim Walz, accompanied by former Vice President Walter Mondale, stopped by the Mower County DFL Headquarters in Austin Saturday.

The Democrat visited with supporters at the Labor Center before they headed out door-knocking for his campaign.

“Making the case is already done,” Walz explained on Saturday. “If we watch what we can control, it can work itself out.

“This is really when the speeches are over,” he said.

Veterans’ issues, transportation and agriculture have been his top priorities, Walz said, pointing out he is focusing on a “middle ground” and “taking back trust in one another” if elected to a second term. . . .

The report is an eye-opening contrast with newspaper accounts of Davis' campaign stops, where he speechifies to the gathered base, then tells them to round up their friends to vote. The Republican is struggling to establish his message, having been put on the defensive, and asks his followers to provide their own resources, rather than providing the tools to reach voters and win.

Come to think of it, that's pretty much what the Davis campaign has been about all along. The base, and little else.

KAAL-TV looks at GOTV efforts in Rochester.  A lot of DFL volunteers calling; a lot of floor space in the GOP boiler room.  The Al Franken blog posted a round-up of a joint campaign swing in Al and Rep. Tim Walz Campaign in Rochester, Faribault, Owatonna, Mankato and Winona. Good links to earned media.

The Rochester Post Bulletin reports that Absentee ballot numbers balloon as people vote early. On Saturday, KEYC-TV broadcast  Blue Earth County Breaks Record For Early Voting Numbers.

We'll be closing most posts in the next day with reasons to vote for Congressman Walz. Here are a couple of endorsements.  From the NRA:

NRA-PVF Endorses Tim Walz for Re-election to U.S. House of Representatives

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

FAIRFAX, VA-The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) is endorsing Congressman Tim Walz for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in the first congressional district of Minnesota.

“During his first term in the House, Congressman Walz consistently supported the constitutional rights of law-abiding gun owners and sportsmen, and demonstrated a strong commitment to the Second Amendment and our country’s rich hunting heritage,” said Chris W. Cox, Chairman of NRA-PVF. “Because of his unwavering pro-gun support, Tim Walz earned an ‘A’ rating and an endorsement from NRA-PVF.”

Congressman Tim Walz said, “I grew up hunting and spent 24 years in the Army National Guard. I know how important Second Amendment rights are to the people of southern Minnesota. I’m proud to stand with the NRA to protect our Second Amendment rights, and I’m truly grateful for their endorsement.”

Rep. Walz cosponsored the BATFE Reform bill that seeks to modernize and improve BATFE operations by rolling back unnecessary restrictions, correct errors and codify longstanding congressional policies in the firearms arena. He also cosponsored the D.C. Gun Ban Repeal and signed onto the historic Congressional amicus brief in the case of District of Columbia v. Heller, holding that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to keep and bear arms.

Cox continued, “Tim Walz believes in southern Minnesota values, and will continue to be a true and consistent friend in the U.S. House of Representatives. I encourage all gun-owners and NRA members to re-elect Tim Walz to the U.S. Congress.”

Chris W. Cox serves as Executive Director and Chairman of NRA-PVF. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund is responsible for political candidate rankings. These are based on candidate voting records, public statements and responses to NRA-PVF questionnaires.

From the New Ulm Journal:

We were surprised two years ago when Mankato DFLer Tim Walz pulled an upset in the First District Congressional Race, unseating the 6-term incumbent, Rep. Gil Gutknecht, in what has traditionally been a conservative, Republican district.

We attributed his win, in large part to the anti-war sentiment at the time, but it was also clear that Walz had worked very, very hard for the win.

That hard work has continued since Walz went to Washington. Walz has been an energetic representative for the district, working on a variety of issues. He is a frequent visitor to the district, and uses the information he gets from back home to make legislation that better serves the people.

This was evident in his work on the Farm Bill. He requested, an got, several changes and measures added that made it a better bill for Minnesota farmers. He admits it is not a perfect bill, but a good compromise.

On military and veterans issues, Walz, a former Command Sergeant Major in the National Guard, has been a strong supporter of the troops, even as he opposed the conduct of the war. He went to bat to make sure Minnesota National Guard troops who served extra-long duty in Iraq were not deprived of their full benefits over a one-day discrepancy in their orders. He stood up for the wounded soldiers when unacceptable conditions were uncovered in the Walter Reed Army Hospital patient residences.

Walz is opposed by Republican nominee Brian Davis, a doctor at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester. Davis has an interesting background as a nuclear engineer, and as a physician. He would probably have some interesting contributions to make on energy and health care issues.

But Davis has labored to tie Walz to the Democratic leadership. We think that effort is not too successful. While Walz's voting record, according to some rankings, puts him on a high percentage of votes with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's positions, other ratings put him in the middle of the pack among liberals in the House. His recent vote against the economic bailout package went against the party line.

Fiscally, Walz firmly believes in the "pay as you go" philosophy of government spending. If the government increases spending in one area, it has to be paid for with spending cuts elsewhere or, if need be, a tax. It is an approach that Congress must adopt if runaway deficit spending is to be brought under control.

Walz says his first allegiance lies with the people of the First District, not with the Democratic leadership. We think he has worked hard for this district in his first term, and deserves a second