Bluestem Prairie: news about Tim Walz (MN-1)

MN-01 candidates and their online friends

The Rochester Post Bulletin has published Candidates use Internet to reach voters, a lovely story about using the Internet.

We were charmed by this passage:

"For Davis' campaign for the 1st District U.S. congressional seat, Facebook and MySpace are being used to mobilize young, potential voters.

"The under-40 crowd reads it a lot more, and it's just another way to communicate to folks, and it is a way to build up the grassroots network," said Brad Biers, Davis' campaign manager."

That reference to the Davis campaign's "use" of MySpace especially curled our toes. Our delight derives from the fact that the "Brian Davis for Congress" MySpace page, linked at the bottom of the PB article, reveals that the smirking Doc Davis and his campaign have exactly two friends this evening.

We've saved a screen shot in order to document the moment.

One of Davis's two friends is "Tom."  When we click on Tom's photo in the Brian Davis for Congress MySpace page, we learn that Tom  is 32, male, and lives in California. We also learn:

I'm Tom and I'm here to help you. Send me a message if you're confused by anything. Before asking me a question, please check the FAQ to see if your question has already been answered.

I may have been on your friend list when you signed up. If you don't want me to be, click "Edit Friends" and remove me! . . .

In short, Tom is the default friend everybody gets when he or she signs up at Facebook. As a consequence, Tom has 239,816,139 friends. Readers must judges for themselves how active Tom is in promoting Davis's ambitions.

The other friend is 29-year-old Melissa, from Fredericksberg, Iowa, who works for Victory Enterprises, a political consulting firm Davis hired. According to his Q2 FEC report for the period that ended on June 30, the Davis campaign owes Victory Enterprises  two sums: $ 8725.35 and $ 5696.14, both for "Campaign Materials/GOTV Consulting."  The larger amount, $8725.35, also appears on his Q1 FEC report for the period that ended March 31.

That's it.  Maybe there's more action happening at Davis's candidate Facebook page or at his campaign  Facebook page. The Post Bulletin reporter apparently didn't know about both the candidate and campaign pages.

The candidate page lists 80 supporters. The Brian Davis for Congress page has 93 members. There's one wall post, and some videos, photos and press releases.

Senator Day doesn't have either a MySpace or a Facebook page.

Walz? His candidate page has 1,376 supporters, like the article says. There are 218 wall comments. A couple of fan photos. There's a bit less action here, but vastly largely numbers than Davis has.  Tim Walz for U.S. Congress! boasts 500+ members.

However, perhaps the best barometer for measuring the difference might be to recall the upstart Walz's campaign's experience with Facebook organizing in 2006. Led by the brilliant National Merit scholar Nick Burkhart, Walz's campaign Facebook group had 500+ members by the time KAAL-TV reported on the story on July 25, 2006.

It's quite a contrast. At the same point in the campaigns, fewer than 100 people have signed on with Davis. Two years ago, over 500 had joined Tim Walz's group. (Gutknecht, too, had a Facebook group, though  two summers ago it attracted numbers closer to those Davis now enjoys.)

How ironic that the Post Bulletin article was published, exactly two years to the day as the earlier story. How unfortunate that the PB readers aren't provided with the contrast between the two challengers' campaigns---only with Mr. Biers braggadico.

We have no explanation for this news

Loyal readers may remember that Tim Walz defeated Gil Gutknecht in 2006. This news was widely reported and duly certified by the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Thus we  are stumped by an article in the Austin Daily Herald, Davis to again challenge Walz, that begins:

In his second run for congress, Rochester resident Brian Davis said he would again focus on solutions to issues varying from immigration and health care to energy.

“As an engineer and doctor, I’m used to looking at the problems we have in energy and health care,” the Republican said. “Then with the 2006 election, I saw the direction Congress was going … and decided that it was time for me to step up to the plate.”

Davis, a radiologist oncologist, lost the 2006 election to Rep. Tim Walz, DFL-Minn., in the state’s first district race. He repeated a similar platform for his bid this year: reducing energy prices through greater focus on U.S. drilling, nuclear power and coal production; market-driven federal policy on health care; and increased enforcement of illegal immigration.

That must have been an enlightening interview. No word on how Republican primary challenger Senator Dick Day fits into this picture.

Image: Screenshot of the beginning of the Austin Daily Herald article.

Radar love?: Will Minnesota's "Emerging Races" repeat 2006 surprise DFL win?

Around the Minnesota blogosphere, progressive bloggers paid attention when the Democratic Congressional Campaign added Steve Sarvi (MN-02) and El Tinklenberg (MN-06) to the "emerging races" list.  Readers can find out more by reading MN-02, MN-06 on DCCC's radar at MNCR and Steve Sarvi now on DCCC's radar at MnBlue

Ashwin Madia is already on the "Red to Blue" list in a race that's rated a tossup and is rumored to be lookin' good for the young Iraq War vet.

There's an article up at CQPolitics this morning about the development in More Democrats Pegged for National Party Aid:

In addition to the 14 “Red to Blue” candidates, the DCCC released Wednesday a list of 20 “emerging races.” A Democratic source with close knowledge of the committee said these candidates “could very well be next in line” to become “Red to Blue” candidates, but for now, the party is closely monitoring them. The emerging list’s intent is both to prompt others to support these candidates as well as motivate the campaigns themselves to further excel, according to the Democratic source.

Those watching the Walz-Gutknecht race in the First two years ago around this time--and reading people like Joe at MnCR and the guys at MnPublius (their 2006 archive is another victim of the Great Crash)  before BSP made its appearance in July 2006--may remember that Tim Walz didn't get put on the "emerging race" list until September. The Swing State Project notes his emergence on September 18, 2006.  While we weren't surprise when Walz upset Gutknecht in November, most convnetional thinkers were stunned.

Walz didn't hit the "Red to Blue" list until late October.

DFLers and Democrats everywhere should pay attention. First, supporting Sarvi and Tinklenberg  (nice light bulb, El!) has the potential to take another congressional  seat now held by a Republican. Click on the links above to help them.

Second, as far ahead as Walz looks in terms of fundraising and polling, the First can't be taken for granted While the Republican candidates Day and Davis are in a primary battle and have raised far less money that Walz had at this time two years ago, it's important to continue to contribute to and volunteer for Walz's campaign. Click here to find out how.

Sarvi and Tinklenberg are on the radar. Help them out.

A tale of two conventions: shadowy traces on a gym wall

While the Republican Party tries to draw comparisons between Walz's strategic position in 2008 and former Gil Gutknecht's at this point in the 2006 race, the contrast between the two is far greater than any similarities.

For not only did Walz have roughly $340,000 more cash in hand at the end of  Q1 2008 than Gutknecht had at the end of Q1 2006, Walz vastly outraised of over his Republican competitors combined in this past quarter. By way of contrast, Walz outraised Gutknecht in Q12006,  a trend that would continue.

Moreover, Gutknecht was so confident that no one was losing any sleep over Walz that he skipped his own endorsing convention in 2006, according to a Post-Bulletin article we found via Lexis-Nexis:

May 8--SIOUX VALLEY, Minn. -- It might have been a bit unorthodox for a candidate not to be present at his own endorsing convention, but it didn't alter the outcome.

U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht was unanimously endorsed as the Republican Party's candidate for the First Congressional District.

A spokesman for Gutknecht said a scheduling conflict prevented the six-term congressman from attending the convention on Saturday. He was to serve as host to members of the Canadian Parliament in Charleston, S.C., at the same time that the endorsing event was held.

Instead of a flesh-and-blood incumbent, the more than 150 delegates who attended the convention at Sioux Valley Lutheran Secondary School, about 130 miles west of Rochester, had to content themselves with a video of Gutknecht projected on the wall of the darkened gymnasium. . . .[Post-Bulletin, "Gutknecht misses own endorsement," 5/8/2006]

Not so for Representative Walz. He'll be in Albert Lea tomorrow for his endorsement, knowing as he does that his grassroots campaign will need the help of DFL activists and others standing beside him. As the Rochester Post Bulletin reported earlier, the gathered Democrats will be voting for hotly-contested delegate spots at the national convention in Denver, so tomorrow's turn out should be strong.

Why, we even anticipate that some Republicans will show up for the excitement.

And since the Walz campaign is taking nothing for granted--not even the $1 million in cash reserves--a fundraising dinner will follow the convention.

From "maverick" to "moderate": reconstruction of the Gutknecht fables

In today's Washington Post, blogger Ben Pershing writes Tom Davis and the 'Dying Breed' of Moderates. Pershing points out that:

When Ramstad announced his retirement in September, he said he was part of a "dying breed of Republican moderates," and things have gotten a lot worse since then. Davis is now the 21st House Republican to announce his retirement this cycle (not counting House members who are leaving to run for other office), and moderates make up a full 48 percent of that list.

Using membership in the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership as a guide, Davis is the 10th self-identified GOP moderate to call it quits, following Reps. David Hobson (Ohio), Ray LaHood (Ill.), Jim McCrery (La.), Deborah Pryce (Ohio), Ramstad, Ralph Regula (Ohio), Jim Saxton (N.J.), Jim Walsh (N.Y.) and Jerry Weller (Ill.). (An 11th RMSP member, New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson, is running for Senate.)

An interesting point, for we read the daily scorn for RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) written by our conservative blogger brethren. 

Indeed, their pro-conservative tracts promise the Republican Party faithful that they will restore the fortunes of the incredible shrinking pachyderm clan only if everyone climbs aboard a right-ward sailing ark amid the rising tide of Democratic victories.

We're seeing this bombastic argument getting some extra padding and ordinary journalists seem to be helping stuff the figure as well. Indeed, Pershing himself goes on to mention moderates defeated in the last cycle:

And this isn't the first cycle to decimate the moderate Republican ranks. In 2006, the GOP was unable to protect two New Hampshire centrists -- Jeb Bradley and Charles Bass (now the RMSP's president) -- as well as Reps. Nancy Johnson (Conn.), Rob Simmons (Conn.), and Gil Gutknecht (Minn.). Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (N.Y.) chose to retire.

Pershing must be using a different metric to define "moderate," for 2006, since Gil Gutknecht was not a member of the Republican Main Street Partnership, so far as we're able to determine. And we've met Jim Ramstad, and Gil Gutknecht is no Jim Ramstad.

An old Project Vote Smart page lists Gutknecht's caucus memberships:

Floor Leader, Minnesota House Republican Caucus, 1992-1995
Congressional Family Caucus
Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus
Vice-Chair, Congressional Study Group on Germany
House Immigration Reform Task Force
Medical Technology Caucus
Republican Study Committee
Theme Team
Co-Chair, Upper Mississippi River Congressional Task Force

Our attention was drawn to Gutknecht's membership in the Republican Study Committee, a conservative caucus in Congress that's often contrasted with the more moderate Main Street Partnership. See, for example, Spending proposals leave moderates in tough position, an article originally published in the March 20, 2006 National Journal:

Looking over Nussle's shoulder is the Republican Study Committee, more than 100 members strong, which is insisting on reconciliation. "You don't lose weight until you get on the scale every day," Pence, the RSC chairman, said in an interview. "We're adamant."

Conservatives say that their party must appeal to its base, and they contend that moderates haven't been hurt by fiscal conservatism in the past and wouldn't be hurt by it this November. "There were moderates in the Congress when we passed the Contract With America in 1994," said Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., a former RSC chairman.

House conservatives expect their chamber to agree on another round of reconciliation -- and the Senate, too, once the budget resolution goes to conference. "Sooner or later, we expect the Senate to get this," said Rep. Gil Gutknecht, R-Minn.

For their part, Republican moderates believe that any large reconciliation measure will doom them on Election Day. "Their constituents are watching how much is being cut," said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a moderate organization with members on and off Capitol Hill. "The real key is that the base in a swing district is very different than the base in a Republican Study Committee district."

Yup, two years ago, Gutknecht was doing cameo appearances as a conservative for the Republican Study Caucus. His December 6, 2006 farewell roast by the caucus is noted in the Congressional Record (H8876-H8882).  As much right-handed back-patting as one would ever want to read.

So when did he get spun into a moderate by the D.C. Press Corps? A couple of  "maverick" votes were cited by Vin Weber in a 2005 article about a possible U.S. Senate bid. The Strib's Kevin Diaz wrote him up as a "maverick" in the fall of 2006, despite his voting over 90 percent in his party and President. Next, Gutknecht was tapped as a "moderate" by writers at The Politico last fall.

And here we are, with former Congressman Gutknecht now described as a full-blown moderate, despite his conservative voting record,  conservative caucus memberships, and all. It took less than a full electoral cycle for Gil Gutknecht's reincarnation as a full-grown RINO in the memory of the Washington press corps. We can only wonder who fed them that line.

This fable might help help conservative bloggers paint by numbers and the candidates in the three-legged race for GOP endorsement in the First mud wrestle over who is the "true" conservative closest to the heart of the deep red beating heart of the district.

The truth remains, aside from all these grim fairytales. Gutknecht was a conservative defeated by a Democrat in a swing district that's trending blue in a state legislative races as well.

Wednesday news digest: Toil and tears edition

We tear up just thinking about the onion harvest in Hollandale. Too bad there aren't more locally grown onions available.

Don't cry for Gil Gutknecht, Minnesota. He's found work and he's sticking to his to-do list. According to today's Post Bulletin article, Gutknecht adjusts happily to life outside the limelight:

The former auctioneer serves as a consultant or is involved with six different companies, he said. He is also involved in conducting market research in Russia and drops hints about an energy deal in the works that could make headlines in the Wall Street Journal. But Gutknecht declines to provide specifics.

"The CEOs of those companies would not particularly want to read about them in the papers now," he said.

Yet some have been surprised at how complete Gutknecht's disappearance from public life has been. Gutknecht's loss to Mankato high school teacher Tim Walz was one of the stunning upsets of the 2006 election. Gutknecht not only lost the district but was bested in his home county of Olmsted.

DFL Chair Brian Melendez cries foul in Coleman’s lack of action on Iraq speaks louder than words:

In a recent letter published by The Free Press, Minnesota GOP Chair Ron Carey took aim at Democrats and their position on the war in Iraq.

How ironic. When most Minnesotans want a responsible end to this war, and when Democrats like the First District’s Rep. Tim Walz are working to safely and responsibly redeploy our troops from Iraq, Sen. Norm Coleman continues to stand in the way, supporting this failed president and his war in Iraq.

Coleman was elected in 2002 as a strong supporter of President Bush and the war in Iraq. Not until the war became unpopular did Coleman publicly express doubt.

But express doubt is all that he did. Actions speak louder than words, and when it comes to the war in Iraq, Coleman says one thing but does another.

Despite claiming that it’s time for a change of course, Coleman consistently supported this failed president and the war in Iraq, voting 10 times this year alone against changing course or setting a timeline for bringing troops home. . . .

Update : 3:30 p.m. 11/28: Brian Melendez works it in another letter in the Albert Lea Tribune in response to Carey. This time the letter's on Coleman's record on veterans' issue. Melendez pulls no punches. End update.

There are other candidates for the Senate job. Retired Post Bulletin editor and publisher Bill Boyne thinks Ciresi particularly well suited for Senate seat. At I Don't Hate America (the best Minnesota liberal blog left off MDE's blog roll), DJ takes in another DFL senate candidate forum, as does MnBlue, The Wege, and others.

At MnCR, Joe Bodell talked to Walz's new chief of staff.  And now we're off to work ourselves.

Does the spirit of Gil Gutknecht haunt Randy Demmer?

Reading an article in the Rochester Post Bulletin about a new law that removes wind energy production taxes from school district's revenue streams, we stumbled across this passage:

Republican Rep. Randy Demmer of Hayfield added that he had no idea this provision was put in the education bill when he voted. He has scheduled a meeting with education officials to discuss the policy and see if "there might be some rationales I'm not aware of."

Demmer didn't know what was in a bill he voted for?  Hmmm...what First District Republican legislator does that bring to mind?  Let's see..

Oh yeah, now we remember--that DM & E Railroad loan provision Gutknecht didn't know about when he voted on the transportation bill it was in:

Gutknecht campaign spokesman Bryan Anderson said it was “problematic” that the DM&E Railroad loan provision “was placed in the transportation spending bill late at night without a lot of members knowing about it.” Gutknecht was one who didn’t know about it.

A candidate for the Republican endorsement in MN-01 seat, Randy Demmer is campaigning on returning to traditional Republican values. We see now that he means it.

Update: another reminder of this spirit in action, last fall's lovely "Railroaded" Youtube:

How good is Larry Sabato's crystal ball?

Not very.

Via Polinaut, we discover that Larry Sabato has put Tim Walz on his list of the Freshman Fifteen.

Sabato is far away from the prairies of Minnesota, where we remember his November 6, 2006 prediction in the First  when Sabato put the seat in his "Ferocious Fifty" list:

November 6, 2006 Update:

Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) will win reelection over Tim Walz (D). . .

Some of the information in his most recent assessment is quite curious. Sabato has the seat leaning both Democratic (in the outlook) and Republican (in the short text). Moreover, Sabato still lights a candle for the return of Gil Gutknecht, and mistakes the pent-up ambitions and numbers of GOP contenders with strength as candidates. Conservative columnist Barry Casselman was more astute in a recent interview in Roll Call:

"So far there's been nothing remarkable about the Republican field," Casselman said.

Someone could come along and prove formidable but, at this early date, that is not the case, Casselman added.

No doubt about it: the 2008 race is starting early. And if these early signs hold true throughout the campaign cycle, it looks as if the GOP will engage in negative bombast, while Walz and his allies stress his work on veterans issues, ethics reform, agriculture, rural development and transportation, and his extreme accessibility to his constitutents, whether in the district or in DC. 

The Mankato Free Press had noted before the election that if Walz were to work as hard in Washington as he had in campaigning, he would make a good congressman. So far, that seems to be the case--though scholars at the University of Minnesota may not be able to see what's on the ground in Southern Minnesota.

Fun stuff and a disclosure: Summer festivals are in fun swing in rural Minnesota. One special event in Waseca beginning today will help the surviving members of the Kruger family, who were the victims of a brutal home invasion and double murder this winter. The Kruger Aid Fest began last night. Tomorrow night features a rock concert with a lineup that includes Golden Smog and City Mouse, as well as one of Bluestem Prairie's first readers last summer, Fast Annie McLoone. McLoone is a Waseca native.

The Worthington Daily Globe covers this weekend's windsurfing regatta on Lake Okabena and music festival, the Post Bulletin touts Winona's cultural boom (Shakespeare and Beethoven festivals, as well as strong summer theatre) and there's music in a quarry near Mankato. Yeah, it's that quarry--the very one.

The Mankato Free Press has a pretty good roster of area summer festivals in south central Minnesota; The Lee Groups's River Valley Newspapers provides this list for the Coulie area in SE Minnesota.

Disclosure: We have to miss any fun this weekend because we're going out to Washington DC on Sunday to be trained as citizen-advocates by the Audubon Society. We'll be arguing for conservation measures in the 2007 Farm Bill (for us, this is hitting the trifecta: birding, politics and the Farm Bill). 

BSP will post from within the Beltway, where we promise to keep our bull detector until we return to God's country late Wednesday. We're meeting with members of Minnesota's congressional delegation (or their staff) who are on House and Senate Ag commitees  It's for the ducks. For the pintail ducks,  a lovely prairie bird.

 

Another sign of the times: property management issues in Rochester

Some weeks ago, we reported that the web page for the First Congressional District Republicans had not been updated since Spring 2004. 

Fortunately, our GOP brethren have since made necessary repairs, although they do seem a bit confused, since the page randomly lists a GOP U.S. Representative from Minnesota:  either Jim Ramstad, Michele Bachmann, or John Kline, depending upon the luck of the draw.  None of the three represent MN-01, and none of the other GOP congressional district pages uses this confusing design. 

Who is congressman in MN-01? Perhaps the state GOP can be forgiven for not knowing if they've visited the Omsted County Republican offices recently.

A friend sent us photos from Rochester this morning, documenting a bit of a property management issue in Rochester: the exterior of 1530 Greenview Dr. SW still sports lettering that indicates the presence of Congressman Gil Gutknecht's official office, which was in Suite 108. Now, this outdated signage is clearly a responsibility of the building's property manager, rather than the former Congressman. 

However, given that the Olmsted County Republicans are located in Suite 114 at 1530 Greenwood, we think they might take a bit of leadership in asking the building's management to remove the signage.

Perhaps after they update their web site, which still asks people to vote on November 7, 2006. Some fascinating audio files there of local radio ads as well.  Oh, and there's this fascinating page for Olmsted County from 2004 on the State Republican web site.  The entry for January 19 is our fav:

Olmsted County Republicans get ready for an exciting election year! Plan to get involved and help re-elect President George Bush, First District Congressman Gil Gutknecht and MN State Representatives Bill Kuisle, Fran Bradley, Randy Demmer and Carla Nelson. Lets keep them in office!

Heckova job.

Rothenberg Report: 1st CD difficult seat for GOP snapback

Via Real Clear Politics, Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report discusses the possibility on a GOP snapback of House seats in 2008.  He doesn't put MN-01 high on the list for GOP salvage operations:

The possibility of a GOP snapback also is minimized by the nature of the ’06 wave. Almost half of the districts that turned from Republican to Democratic are either competitive or Democratic-leaning, and as long as the freshman Democrats in those districts don’t stumble badly, history suggests that they will be difficult to dislodge.

Former Republican Congressmen Charles Bass (N.H.), Jeb Bradley (N.H.), Michael Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Gil Gutknecht (Minn.), Nancy Johnson (Conn.), Sue Kelly (N.Y.), Jim Leach (Iowa), Anne Northup (Ky.), Rob Simmons (Conn.) and Clay Shaw (Fla.) didn’t lose because they were terrible candidates. They lost because they were in marginal seats or in districts carried by Al Gore in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004. It will be very difficult (though obviously not impossible) for the GOP to retake those districts, even if former Members run again for their former seats.