Since his surprise upset of Gil Gutknecht in 2006, Congressman Tim Walz's candidate committee has filed post-election reports that show slender balances and some unpaid bills after vigorous campaigns in the swing district.
At the same time in the 2009-2010 cycle (amended report)--a Republican wave year during which the Mankato Democrat squeaked out a win over Hayfield's Randy Demmer--Walz enjoyed a cash balance of $23,083.12 with $35,976.83 in unpaid bills. These oblligations were paid by the end of June, 2011, when Walz had $397,556.54 cash on hand.
After Walz's freshman year, he blew Republican Brian Davis out of the water, but closed the campaign with $59,965.27 in bank and no debt, according to the committee's 2008 post-general report.
Walz went for broke in the 2006 upset, reporting $18,759.90 in debts and a $-17568.33 cash balance in an amended filing. All debts were paid and the committee had $452,881.45 by the end of June 2007 in anticipation of what was anticipated to be a close race in 2008.
Quist and Parry reports
Allen Quist's post-election report reveals that the Norseland farmer came nowhere living up to his endorsing convention promise to commit $1 million of his own money to the campaign. Quist gave $205,000.00 to his campaign during the cycle, while lending the committee $315,000.00. Outside of self-funding, the Quist for Congress committee raised $101,214.50 from individual, $4,100.00 from party committees and $14,600.00 from PACs for the cycle.
Quist's primary challenger Mike Parry--who jumped into the race last year with more fanfare and the assistance of then top Minnesota Republican operatives Michael Brodkorb and Ben Golnik--reports having $-1109.85 COH and no debt. The Parry for Congress raised a net $114,560.10 in contributions.
Photos: Tim Walz (top); Emo Senator Mike Parry (bottom; photoshop by Tild).
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This week we asked the Insiders which issues no longer have a chance of passage. Here were their top answers:
1. Right to work
2. Castle Doctrine
3. Tort reform
4. Tax cuts
5. (tie) Repeal of statewide business tax
5. (tie) Election/voter reform
7. Teacher evaluation changes
8. The American Legislative Exchange Council agenda
9. (tie) Balanced-budget amendment
9. (tie) Nuclear deregulation
While the ALEC agenda came in near the bottom of the list, Bluestem thinks it's worth noting that Right-to-Work, the Castle Doctrine, tort reform, voter restriction, teacher evaluation changes, and nuclear deregulation are the ALEC agenda. ( A comprehensive list is found here at ALEC Exposed, with new information here).
While the Republicans' loss of both chambers of the Minnesota Legislature and a sitting DFL governor, along with the thinning of the local herd, it's unlikely that much direct damage can be done by ALEC members in the next two years. It's worth keeping track of where they're landing, nonetheless, and so with the release of the House minority caucus's recommendations of committee assignments to Speaker Thissen's office, Bluestem has checked to see who's on which committee.
First, the ranking members who are known ALEC pals, then the committee recommendations for all known ALEC members in the Minnesota House. Other committee recommendations for ALEC members who are in the first list are also in the second list.
House Committee Lead Last Known ALEC Task Force
Capital Investment Matt Dean International Relations
Environment et al Finance Denny McNamara Energy, Environment & Agriculture
Trans Finance
Mike Beard Commerce, Insurance & Econ Dev.
Housing Paul Anderson Health and Human Services
Judiciary Steve Drazkowski Civil Justice
Education Policy Sondra Erickson Education
Early Education Pam Myhra Tax and Fiscal Policy
Energy Pat Garofalo Education
Transportation Policy Linda Runbeck Tax and Fiscal Policy
Government Operations Joyce Peppin None
Other Committee recommendations for known Minnesota House ALEC members:
Paul Anderson: Environment et al Finance Mike Beard: Ways & Means; Transportation Policy Mike Benson: Transportation Finance; Regulated Industries Matt Dean: HHS Finance; Rules; Ways & Means Steve Drazkowski: Environment et al Finance; Government Operations; Taxes Sondra L. Erickson: Education Finance; Property Tax Division Pat Garofalo: Property Tax Division; Taxes Denny McNamara: Evironment et al Policy; Ways & Means Pam Myhra: Taxes; Education Finance Joyce Peppin: Taxes; Rules Linda Runbeck: Property Tax Division; Taxes Kurt Zellers: Rules; Commerce
Although Dean Urdahl (R-18A) has put his jacket on ALEC legislation like the famous cheeseburger no-fault bill, he's not an ALEC member.
Here's the entire spreadsheet of the recommendations:
Photo: MN ALEC state chair Mary Kiffmeyer got her Photo ID
constitutional amendment on the ballot--and motivated DFL voters to get to the polls to turn her party out of control of the legislature. (Photo by T.W. Budig/ECM Publishers).
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It is time to act. The Environmental Quality Board is organizing an Agenda 21-style "congress” for Minnesota. I have received reports from folks who have attended the Rochester and Bloomington “congresses”. This is a huge move by the state to force a “Green Agenda”.
We have an opportunity to attend, to vote, and to speak at these events. The Liberals have been stuffing these rooms FULL. I was told there were 160 at the Rochester event! I was also informed that the majority of these people were government union people, or staff members from one of the MANY agencies behind this “congress”.
St. Cloud is Central Minnesota. This is OUR home turf. We need to be there. If we pull together: Liberty folks, TEA Party folks, Republicans and Conservatives then we CAN make an impact. We must stand together!
GET YOUR PEOPLE to the St. Cloud event. I will be there.
I will also be having an organizational meeting BEFORE this takes place so we are united and can work as a team. Stay tuned. Details to come.
Since Newberger hasn't been sworn into office yet, we suspect open meeting laws don't apply. Will his pre-Citizen Forum organizational meeting for his kindred spirits be open to the public and the press?
Newberger's post echoes the nonsense that first saw the light of day in a post-Thanksgiving email sent out by state representative Steve Drazkowski (R-ALEC). It was picked up by a couple of the Group Home bloggers at True North and the Rochester Tea Party Patriots, and the emotional flooding of fear continued.
The basic outline of the narrative is that these is an attempt at takeover by environmental extremists led by the evil (and rich) Alida Messinger (subtext: Or Agenda 21! The United Nations! Scary!). To execute this infernal plot, only environmentalists and other dirty hippies have been invited or so implied Steve Drazkowski in a scary email about extremists hijacking EQB citizen forums.
What's more, so goes this fabulist narrative, the congress and the citizen forums were hatched after the Republicans lost their majorities in November (possible only if Messinger is funding time travel, since Environmental Congress is a product of a November 2011 executive order signed while the Republicans still held both chambers of the Minnesota legislature--and when no one predicted that the MNGOP would lose both the house and senate).
Indeed, complete bullshit like this gives the cray a bad name, and perhaps it's time for Minnesotans to start taking about Republican overreach after their defeat in last month's state legislative elections. Those hoping that the Republican Party of Minnesota will get its feet firmly planted back on the ground need only look to new reps like Cindy Pugh and Newberger (and others) to realize that the MNGOP overreach isn't going away.
State Rep.-elect Jim Newberger has made eight mission trips beyond the former Iron Curtain.
Newberger
has visited Russia, Ukraine and Romania as a volunteer with
church-based and other groups. Seeing the state of affairs in formerly
Communist nations galvanized Newberger’s beliefs about government and
human nature.
“Ronald
Reagan said that when the government gets bigger, people get smaller.
You see that in the former Soviet Union everywhere,” Newberger said.
“I’ve seen the aftermath of big government, and it takes generations to
fix.”
Newberger, a
paramedic and tea party activist from Becker, was elected to the
Minnesota House of Representatives on Nov. 6. He’ll represent District
15B, a rural district that covers much of Benton and Sherburne counties,
including Becker, Clear Lake, Clearwater, Foley, Gilman and Rice. There
was no incumbent in the district because of this year’s redistricting.
Newberger
is an evangelical Christian who cites his faith and family as
cornerstones of his beliefs about politics and government.
Read the rest at the St. Cloud Times. Like Cindy Pugh, Newberger appears to be totally heaven-sent for bloggers.
Photo: Jim Newberger, from his website.
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It taps into overt fear-mongering on the right about environmentalism, while dog whistling to less polite phobias about the planning and permitting process nurtured in Tea Party meetings about Agenda 21. Paranoia about sustainable planning predates the Tea Party, of course, with folks like Michele Bachmann and Allen Quist creating exemplary Hofstadterian rants in advent of the post-2008 coming of Barack Obama, but it's gotten its realhead steam in the profound critical thinking that comes out of Teabaggery.
In the fractured fairytale told by Draz and the group home bloggers, the Citizens Forums across the state that began last week and continue through December 17--as well as next year's Environmental Congress--have only been promoted among extremist environmentalists, while the hard working yeoman farmers and small business people at the core of our democracy have been left behind like wretched sinners at the Rapture. The most laughable iteration of this fabulist fiction is the claim that Environmental Congress was planned only after the DFL legislative victories in the 2012 elections last month--rather than a year before.
According to this clarion call against DFL "overeach," citizen statements gathered at the Forums and shared at next year's Environmental Congress will simply end with former Dayton spouse and current liberal deep pockets Alida Messinger in control of all your property rights via the EQB.
Yesterday, Ag Commissioner Frederickson and Dayton advisor Ellen Anderson sent the following letter to Representative Drazkowski explaining that tens of thousands of Minnesotans had gotten emails announcing the forums and congress, and the Minnesota Farm Bureau, the Minnesota Farmers Union, the AgriGrowth Council, and local and state chambers of commerce had been sent notice while being asked to encourage their members to attend.
Frederickson andAnderson also write:
In addition, we convened two Advisory Groups, which included farmers, farm organizations, and other business and industry groups, along with a wide range of other Minnesotans, to review the draft Environment and Energy Report Card.
Photo: Steve Drazkowski, R-ALEC, complete fabulist.
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An Isanti County pastor who participated in a ministry devoted to
helping people put their homosexuality behind them has been charged with
sexually assaulting two men he was counseling. . . .
Muehlhauser also was a counselor through Robbinsdale-based Outpost
Ministries, whose website says it was founded more than 30 years ago to
help men and women "break away from gay life" and declares that "all
homosexual behavior is sin." . . .
According to the criminal complaint:
One of the men told investigators that Muehlhauser
"blessed" him by cupping his genitals outside of his clothing several
times and that Muehlhauser asked the man to masturbate in front of him
for "spiritual strength." Muehlhauser would also fondle the man at
times. Their encounters occurred over a period of nearly two years.
Another man told investigators of similar encounters
spanning most of this year, adding that Muehlhauser feared he would
"lose everything" if anyone found out. At one encounter, Muehlhauser
fondled the man and then the two joined the pastor's wife for a dinner
outing.
The assaults of the two men occurred at the church, its
prayer cabin and at a home belonging to a relative of one of the
victims. The criminal complaint made a point to note that "consent by
the complainant is not a defense," given Muehlhauser is a clergy member. . . .
I am writing this letter in response to the downfall of Pastor Ryan at Lakeside Christian Church.
My name is Chaplain Gerard Dols with Midwest Chaplains. Currently, I
am working at the Capital Prayer Network during session, and the
Minneapolis Salvation Army. I had the honor of living in Cambridge from
2002 thru 2004. At that time, I was attending Church at River of Life
with senior Pastor Tom Porta.
Thirty three years ago I made the decision to leave the homosexual
lifestyle. It was not an easy road for me, but it was the best decision I
made for it brought reconciliation between my dad and myself. This
reconciliation brought healing and closure to the both of us. This past
weekend, I returned to Cambridge for a visit and was disturbed to hear
of Pastor Ryan’s downfall. I grieved for his family and the community.
What amazed me was how people were shocked and hurt by this. I myself
wanted to restore the community, his family, and ultimately Pastor Ryan.
We all ultimately have to take responsibility for our actions and ask
for forgiveness when wronged. We as Christians need to extend
forgiveness to the ones who have hurt us. By doing this, we can walk in
freedom.
There are many people who have left the homosexual lifestyle like
myself who do not use their position to influence others. We all need to
adhere to boundaries so as to protect others and ourselves from
accusations. When someone in authority requests you to keep a secret
that even he knows is wrong, you must speak up and report it to the
legal authorities. That is the right action to take. If you have been
abused there is no shame or guilt to tell legal authorities. We must
tell so that we can break the cycle of sexual abuse. If you are one that
has been abused, please tell so that it does not happen to others. My
heart for the Cambridge community is restoration and healing.
Dols applies spin to Spindale Word of Faith Fellowship woes
Part of Senator Dan Hall's Midwest Chaplains, Dols' "ex-gay" street cred is getting quite the workout this fall as stories of criminal abuse of gay men in ministries from Cambridge to Spindale, North Carolina emerge in the press.
. . . this diverse and charismatic congregation remains at the center of a
roiling public debate that has spawned more than two decades of
lawsuits, criminal charges and bitter custody fights over how church
children are raised.
Few of the allegations against Word of Faith have led to formal
charges. When they have, the charges haven’t stuck. Whaley’s assault
conviction was overturned after five years of appeals. Over one
five-year period, the church says it spent more than $3 million in legal
fees.
Around the time Lowry made his allegations, three members of the Word of
Faith security team and another church member were arrested after
confrontations with Lowry and a companion, Jerry Cooper. Cooper, a
former Word of Faith member and critic of the church, filed the charges. . . .
As authorities are investigating reports of abuse and imprisonment that a gay man brought against Word of Faith Fellowship Church, a nondenominational Christian congregation in Spindale, N.C., an inside source has said that all of the allegations are a complete fabrication pushed forth by a gay activist.
"This guy – is nothing but a gay activist who has tried to close this church up. He has tried to influence this kid, Michael Lowry. Sam and Jane are nothing like that and I will probably be testifying at court if there is a case. They have never ever abused me or any of my friends that I have brought down there," Chaplain Gerard Dols, who works at the Salvation Army A.R.C Program, shared with The Christian Post in a phone conversation on Friday. . . .
But Dols, who says that he has personally known Sam and Jane Whaley, the pastors Word of Faith, for the past 30 years and used to attend their church, says that Lowry is being persuaded to make up this story by a man who he calls a gay activist with a mission to try and close down the 750-member church. Dols, who describes himself as a formerly gay man who left that life behind when he became a Christian, was featured in the 2008 Academy Award-winning movie "Milk" as the "Boy from Minnesota." His character, a young gay man, seeks out the help of Harvey Milk, the real-life first openly gay man to be elected to public office in the United States when he won a seat on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 1978, but was assassinated that same year.
Dols repeated to CP that the Whaleys "never ever abused me or any of my friends that I have brought down there." He explained that the "gay activist" he believes has been influencing Lowry previously has been arrested at World of Faith for trespassing, and that there has been a restraining order placed against him because he calls and emails the church all the time.
A Boy From Minnesota's Tale
Dols certainly gets around--and his stories about his youthful gay experiences wander a bit, too.
He told the Concerned Women of American in August 2008 that he'd first talked to Harvey Milk in 1977 when he was 17. Dols moved to Los Angeles and claims he was to move in with Milk and his partner, but Milk was murdered first. Dols claimed that the gay community became militant after Milk's death in late Nobember 1978 and abandoned him. When he attended a Jews for Jesus meeting on March 2, 1979, he was born again and renounced the "gay lifestyle." Listen here.
Gus Van Sant's most recent film, Milk, while getting award
buzz, also received plenty of Minnesota buzz. There's character in the
movie who is only known as the "Boy from Minnesota."
The inclusion of the character set-off a search to find out if the
person is still alive, and/or around. And if you believe the story of
Minneapolis resident Gerard Dols, the character is very real and very
much alive. Because the "Boy from Minnesota" is Gerard Dols.
Gerard called City Pages to tell his side of the story. He's concerned
about what is being said about him. What follows is his story. If you
choose to believe it, then yes, it's him. If you don't, then just assume
it's a fable told on a blog. Either way... it's a decent yarn to read
on a cold afternoon in the Twin Cities. . . .
I am the boy from Richmond, Minnesota. I want to tell you everything in
the movie did not happen. It just did not happen. For one, I am
disabled, but I was not in a wheel chair at that time. The writer of the
book never interviewed me about it. I was born without kneecaps and
wore braces as a child. . . .
I talked to Harvey 4-7 times after that and 10 days
before my 18th birthday I got a plane ticket. I called to Harvey, but
Jack [his boyfriend] answered the phone. Jack said, "Why are you coming
here? Jack said why are you trying to take Harvey away from me?" I said,
"Fine, let me call Anne [Kronenberg] and give her my flight number."
When I called her she said you can't come now. I said why? She said Jack
committed suicide last night.
I called him at 6 p.m. and he committed suicide within a half hour. It haunted me for 30 years.
I
ended up flying to Los Angeles. Found Don Amador. And he helped me to
find a place. Then Harvey was murdered. I immediately was depressed. All
my gay friends deserted me when Harvey Milk died.
I was very
upset about the militant groups and the riots that followed (Milk's
assassin) Dan White only getting 5 years. They were against everything
Harvey Milk taught. I felt very hopeless. Everything was lost. I chose
to no longer live the lifestyle.
I am now a chaplain by trade. I work at an alcohol/drug rehab center and one of the homeless shelters.
Anyway, I am the Minnesota boy in the Milk movie.
I am the boy from Richmond. I am now a born-again Christian. I have a
strong faith. I'm the happiest I've ever been in my life.
Rick Simon left his small-town Minnesota home 25 years ago because he felt residents there didn't accept his gay lifestyle.
People in Rush City would cross the street when they saw him, Simon said. Attitudes weren't much better in neighboring Isanti County, where his grandmother lived.
On Wednesday, in front of Simon and about 30 others, the issue of extending rights to same-sex couples was played in front of the Isanti County Board.
Holding a sign that read, "The Taliban is alive and well in Isanti Co.," Simon watched as Gerard Dols asked the county board to let county residents vote on whether same-sex marriages should be sanctioned.
"Applying the laws of marriage to same-sex unions will create a legal disaster that will never end," argued Dols, 43, who said he was gay for two years as a teenager in California before "accepting Jesus Christ" and rejecting "the gay lifestyle."
Isanti County Attorney Jeffrey Edblad said the county has no standing to act on Dols' request. Minnesota law prohibits same-sex marriages and does not allow the state to recognize such unions granted in other states. Federal law prohibits same-sex couples from receiving the same government benefits as married couples. . . .
Nevertheless,
Simon said, there is enough sentiment for Dols' position that if the
issue were put to a vote in the county, opponents of gay marriage would
prevail.
The Rev. Thomas Porta, assistant
pastor at the River of Life Church in Cambridge, said he hoped the
county commission would take a stand on the issue. He said he and almost
all of his 150 parishioners would support the ordinance.
"I
believe same-sex marriages would have a damaging effect on the
institution of marriage," said Porta, 51. "I'd love to see it come to a
vote." . . . ( accessed via Nexis All News 12/3/2012)
Our Man at the State Capitol, 2013?
That 2004 iteration places Dols in gay communities in California for a year and a half longer than his later accounting in 2008 and 2009, but time flies when you're having fun, or so we're told.
It's likely we'll hear more from Dols--and not just in Cambridge or on the phone to defend demon-beaters in North Carolina--if the drive to legalize same-sex marriage takes fire following last month's defeat of the amendment to restrict the freedom to marry.
As noted earlier, Dols is part of State Senator Dan Hall's Midwest Chaplains, which has the mission to "encourage individuals to pray for our government and its leaders." Chaplains include Cathy Jo Severson, wife of former representative Dan Severson, as well as Senator Hall and Dols.
The Capitol Prayer Network's weekly events are routinely included in the Minnesota Strategic Coalition's monthly calendar. Part of the New Apostolic Reformation, the MSC is "a
relational based group of state leaders, ministry leaders, intercessors,
prophets, and other KINGDOM minded people, for the purpose of advancing
the Kingdom of God in MN and beyond."
Photo: Gerard Dols (above); Cold Springs Record item (below.
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A friend passes along an undated letter on the Parry For Congress letterhead that he received in yesterday's mail. Here's the scanned image:
Mrs. Parry's honey-do list and all that complaining must have consumed a lot of time, since these activities pushed Parry's primary thank you letter back until the end of November. Parry lost the Republican primary in Minnesota's First Congressional district on August 14
And given the nature of those dismissed complaints (and dismissed appeals of the rejected complaints), it's curious that Mike Parry is applauding his activity in a letter for a federal campaign. Were those press conferences and complaints--which consumed state staff time--intended to gain approval and thus aid his federal fundraising?
If this activity was related to the amendments, ought Parry and Newman have created a committee to support their activities on the ballot questions' behalf? Parry asked such things of SOS Ritchie.
We'll leave assessments of his service to his constituents to residents of the district.
Also curious: Parry's closing postscript:
I also wanted to let you know that my campaign has a few outstanding debts and I would be so grateful if you could give me one last contribution to help me make sure they are paid.
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Straight from his stint as Field Director for ProtectMyVote, the recent St. Thomas grad sees a really, really scary example of a DFL emboldened by its capture of both houses of the Minnesota legislature in the November 2012 elections.
In Green...It's the New Red?, a November 30, 2012 blog post up at conservative group home True North, Rouleau writes:
Shortly after the DFL took control of the majorities in the legislature,
Governor Dayton issued Executive Order 11-32 on November 16 mandating
an Environmental Congress be called and forums around the state be
hosted. Now, if I was a betting man, I would wager that this is the
first hint of overreach that we will see come from the DFL. [emphasis added]
That's pretty scary, especially since Governor Dayton issued Executive Order 11-32 on November 16, 2011.
Update: The wankerific Mr. Rouleau has tweeted that he "used a wrong word." As if his intent were somehow not clear in claiming that EO-11-32 and the Citizen Forum were a consequence of the November 2012 election and "the first hint of overreach," rather than something planned for months--or that the executive order had been issued nearly a year before the election.
This, dear friends, is why we save screenshots. And why we're pleased that the rhetorical brilliance that worked so well at ProtectMyVote is being brought into service in Mr. Rouleau's Holy War Against The Dirty Hippies at the EQB [end update]
Check it out, making sure to scroll to the second page:
Bluestem was aware that Alida Messinger's money could buy many things, but we had no idea that time travel was on the Dayton shopping list.
Think about it. On November 16, 2011, Tony Sutton had not yet renounced the throne of MNGOP and the horrific financial condition of the party was not yet public. Michael Brodkorb still worked at the Republican Senate Majority and Senator Amy Koch still led the Minnesota Senate; their affair wasn't yet widely known nor publicly.
The second session of the 2011-2012 legislature had yet to happen.
And yet Governor Dayton still knew to get the ball rolling for some world-class overreach. Some way, somehow, the Governor knew what no one else knew in November 2011: that the DFL would gain control of the legislature on November 6, 2012. Too bad John Rouleau wasn't let in on that dirty little secret as he might have found a different job when he graduated from college in the spring of 2012.
Rouleau continues:
While this seems like an innocent enough endeavor to
find out what the people of Minnesota have in mind, this was far from a
balanced audience. As I do more research, it appears to have been
selectively promoted with groups in attendance from The Sierra Club,
Environment Minnesota, citizens opposed to the Wolf Hunt and the
Minnesota Environmental Partnership.
Why is this important? Given the upcoming Environmental
Congress, it is very important for the environmentalists to be able to
point back at this data saying “this is what Minnesotan’s want” — while
pushing extreme environmental policies to the Environmental Congress and
through the legislature following that.
Ellen Anderson, senior adviser to the governor on energy and
environment, said Drazkowski's assertion that notification about the
meetings has been limited is "completely false." She said the board has
sent out hundreds of email invitations to various stakeholders including
farm groups, chambers of commerce, mining groups, environmental groups
and energy groups — just to name a few.
That was pretty much what we found, and given the membership of the Environmental Quality Board--commissioners from the departments of commerce, transportation, DEED and agricultures, as well as those divisions that might seem "environmental," along with citizen members from pro-industry groups like the Agri-Growth Council--it's hard to believe that there's selective recruitment of the audience.
Rouleau describes the horrific experience of participating in the forum (for a dirty hippie's counterpoint, check out LeftMN's Aaron Klemz in Citizen environmental forum provides a ray of hope, which suggests, when paired with Rouleau's account, that the Messinger-Dayton alliance can also purchase and install parallel universes).
Curiously, Rouleau notes that citizen participants are quarreling with the information the EBQ is providing:
At what point will people begin to realize that businesses are being
forced out of our state, that existing jobs are being eliminated and new
jobs are not being created. That is the point though, when radicals
(who put the environment above all else), claim that the data provided
by the Governors office and the EQB is faulty and express desires to
kill jobs and participate in social planning.
Jeepers, John, perhaps at other forums in exotic locales like Worthington and Moorhead.
Or maybe it's just you.
Image: Screenshot of the Rouleau post at True North.
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Usually I use the editorial plural "we" here at Bluestem, but I'm stepping out of that convention to speak in a personal voice.
I've been reading about your resistance to repealing the Minnesota state version of the Defense of Marriage Act, and I'm growing a bit weary of your habit of branding calls for marriage freedom as somehow the domain of "real liberal constituencies."
I'm going to step out of the voice of the poor country blogger and tell you a bit about the conversations I've had since high school about same sex attraction, and why this conversation doesn't mark me as a card-carrying member of a "real liberal constituency" but as a real Minnesotan who understands that failure to engage in the life of one's community, to recognize my neighbors, might mean a genuine death by snowbank.
Early on, members of my family, who got here during territorial times, picked up on the fact that we talk to each other or die. Think blizzards. Think US-Dakota War.
As a kid, I noticed early on that people do better when we talk to each other, know our neighbors and the next town over and the city beyond. Things in Minnesota don't seem to go terribly well when people don't talk, don't listen. Talking leads to Minnesota miracles and dairy co-ops. Not talking and listening builds a mass gallows in Mankato.
You and I don't know each other outside of the generic meet-and-greets, but checking out your biography, I've reason to believe you understand the need for people to talk, to negotiate, to seek the best for everyone, rather than simply languish in custom and practice, where an injury to one is an insult to all. You're a union guy, and in my experience, union people get the part of Minnesota that's about working together.
My conversation began in in my junior year of high school when, in Mr. Smart's Pre-College English class discussion of current events, the subject of "gay liberation" came up. Mr. Smart sneered about the topic and my fellow students picked up on that cue. I raised my hand and said quite innocently (I think) that I felt that there wasn't enough love in this world, and if men loved men, that was fine by me.
That was one battle I fought alone.
Publicly at least. What happened next made me uncomfortable for a couple weeks: as word made it around school, friends came out to me. Way to go from easy and abstract logic to actually having scared teenage boys confiding secrets to a socially awkward girl. I'd like to able to say that I was heroic, brave and compassionate, but to be honest, I was pretty freaked out. It was the mid 1970s, there wasn't a lot of information available, and suddenly, my friends were queer.
Once I calmed down, I realized they were my friends and they had always been gay, though I didn't have that word yet. My knowledge didn't change anything about them, however more interesting my world got.
Since then, the conversation has expanded--in Philadelphia, during the height of the AIDS epidemic, before life-saving meds came; in Springfield, Missouri where John Ashcroft was governor but Christian student clubs and the GLBT student group I advised sat down and talked in large meetings; and, this past year in Minnesota.
The conversation the marriage amendment started isn't about real liberals or constituents, but about the real Minnesota in which we all live. The marriage amendment was defeated because some very smart people managed to engage that conversation with political organizing.
The conversation need to continue. Not because you owe your majority to it. Not because the constituency demands it. Not because of any political calculus.
But because this is the conversation we are having as Minnesotans. It's the conversation that caused conservative Sarah Janezcek to memorialize her family member in The bachelor farmer and the marriage vote.
It's okay by me to put working on the budget first, Tom. Let's do that. It's a priority.
But it borders on offensive to tell me that some sort of "Others," rather than a broad spectrum of Minnesotans, want to go on with the discussion we've had about marriage this year. While most of us knew that same-sex marriage wouldn't be suddenly legal if the amendment were defeated, those working against it took the legislators who voted to put this turkey on the ballot at their word. Let the people decide. We talked about what marriage means, and we said no to freezing one definition in the state constitution. And we talked about what marriage could be.
There's a perfectly non-offensive thing to say if you want to get the budget fixed first without angering those who took part in this conversation.
See if you can say this: "Those who want marriage
equality tell me they want to do it right, thoughtfully, and not rush a
bill. We'll work on solving the budget, and we'll start the hard work of continuing the conversation about marriage when our solution to this most pressing problem is signed by the Governor."
Think of the grand old tradition of township meetings. Think of the REA annual meetings. Think of the church conventions, the VFW, the Elks and the Moose. Think of the citizens who take time off to come to the state capitol, on their own or with a group, to talk about issues, our communities.
Let's get that budget fixed, Tom. Part of that involves doing something about the way education gets funded.
Then let's all have the courage to continue the conversation about marriage. It might take you a while to get comfortable but being alive isn't a comfort zone, I learned back in Mr. Smart's class.
Let's talk.
Photo: Representative John Kriesel (R-Cottage Grove), announcing the formation of Republicans Against the Minnesota Marriage Amendment in October 2011 — From RAMMA Facebook page,
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With the conclusion of the recount in House District 8B, incumbent Republican representative Mary Franson is the victor in the heatedly contested race in Central Minnesota.
Election officials finished re-tallying votes in the House District
8B race on Thursday, finding one additional vote for Franson in the
process and widening her lead over Democratic candidate Bob Cunniff
to 12 votes. An automatic recount was required because the margin
between the candidates was less than one half of 1 percent. Cunniff
conceded the race to Franson late Thursday afternoon. The State
Canvasing Board will meet on Dec. 4 to certify the results.
Cunniff came in just one vote behind Franson on election night, but
last week a judge ruled there were “obvious” balloting errors made in
three Alexandria voting precincts. Thirty-two voters in two precincts
were mistakenly given Franson-Cunniff ballots instead of ballots for a
neighboring House race, and there were three more ballots submitted than
names on a sign in sheet in an additional precinct. To remedy the
error, the judge ordered officials to randomly pull 35 votes from the
total last week, giving Franson an 11-vote edge.
Franson told Bluestem that she feels "Relief that it's all over with" and that "the district knows exactly who there Representative is."
She's looking forward to working on her legislative priorities:
My priorities have always been about growing our economy and making sure
we have a vibrant economy so that job creators can expand and employ
workers. I want all of my constituents to have the opportunities to be
gainfully employed and able to provide for their families.
Franson has alread begun to look forward to the session:
Now that the election is behind me I can now concentrate on the issues
facing my district and focus on the 2013 legislative session. I already
have meetings set up with various groups and one of those meetings is
this Monday with the local manufacturers.
A two-day recount put Minnesota State Representative Mary Franson 12
votes ahead of Bob Cunniff, apparently sending her to a second term in
the House.
There are not enough ballots in question to give Cunniff the lead. . .
Recounts in the two counties left Franson with the dozen-vote lead.
Cunniff’s attorney challenged who should receive five votes, while
Franson’s attorney challenged one.
Even if the state board agrees
with all of Cunniff’s challenges, he would remain short of Franson, a
freshman lawmaker who has been a lightning rod for welfare supporters.
Cunniff has issued a statement about the loss, which he will not challenge in the courts, the paper reports:
"First, I want to thank my family, friends, campaign volunteers, and
supporters for everything they've done throughout the course of the
election and in these weeks since then. While I am of course
disappointed with the final outcome. I am proud of what we have
accomplished and am grateful to have had the experience of meeting so
many extraordinary people.
"The election proved yet again the
importance of voting, and of making sure everyone's votes are counted
fairly and accurately. I want to thank Douglas County Auditor Char
Rosenow and Otter Tail County Auditor Wayne Stein - and their staff -
for their work in administering the election and overseeing the recount
process. I am also thankful for volunteers from both campaigns who
worked hard to make sure the recount was conducted quickly and fairly.
"Now
that the process has come to an end, I would like to congratulate
Representative Mary Franson on her victory. I wish her and her family
well during this holiday season. I believe the results of this election
show that people of our district - and the state - would like to see
more cooperation and compromise in St. Paul, and if there is anything I
can do to help in that regard, I will be happy to lend a hand."
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Conservative sites are flaming former Minnesota Republican kingpin Jeff Larson, scorching the reach of his octopi-tentacles into the pockets and the defeat of 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
If money is the root of all evil, for the Republican Party evil is
located on the fifth floor of 66 Canal Center Plaza, Alexandria, VA
22314.
Strip away the candidate and coalition and it is on the fifth floor
of 66 Canal Center Plaza where the seeds of Mitt Romney’s ruin and the
RNC’s get out the vote (GOTV) effort collapsed — bled to death by
charlatan consultants making millions off the party, its donors, and the
grassroots.
66 Canal Center Plaza is also why Jeff Larson, the Chief of Staff of
the Republican National Committee, should not be put in charge of the
autopsy of the GOP’s defeat. Multiple sources confirm to me that RNC
Chairman Reince Priebus has already put Larson in charge of the so
called autopsy. . . .
Down the Rabbit Hole
To understand the problems, we need to go back in time. Michael
Beach is a co-founder of Targeted Victory, LLC, as is Zac Moffatt.
Before that, he was the National Victory Director for the Republican
Party during the 2008 campaign.
Targeted Victory, LLC operates from suite 501 of 66 Canal Center
Plaza in Alexandria as a foreign limited liability company. Targeted
Victory, LLC is actually a Minnesota limited liability company. In
Virginia, its co-founder Michael Beach, is listed as its registered
agent by the Virginia Secretary of State. It was formed on February 5,
2009, around the time Michael Beach left the RNC.
Targeted Victory, LLC’s registered office is 7300 Hudson Blvd, Suite
270, St. Paul, MN 55128. It’s manager, who is the person who controls
the day to day operations of an LLC on behalf of its members, is Tony
Feather.
Drum roll please — Tony Feather happens to also be the F in FLS
Connect, LLC, which made millions off both the Romney campaign and the
RNC.
The “L” in FLS Connect is Jeff Larson, the present Chief of Staff of the Republican National Committee.
Curiously, the Virginia Secretary of State notes that FLS Connect,
LLC uses a registered agent in Virginia Beach, VA, but is a foreign
limited liability company just like Targeted Victory, LLC. More
curious, its principal office is the same office in St. Paul, MN as
Targeted Victory, LLC, but FLS Connect is actually an Arizona limited
liability company. . . .
Erickson dives into the wreck, emerging with:
FLS Connect continued to get business from the RNC and also got
business from Team Romney. But now Targeted Victory enters the picture.
Targeted Victory, LLC’s principal office is the same office in St.
Paul, MN that FLS Connect, LLC lists as its own principle office.
Targeted Victory’s manager is Tony Feather, who is the F in FLS Connect.
Rich Beeson, who used to work for FLS Connect, is now with Team
Romney and Team Romney awards a contract to Targeted Victory, LLC for
its digital work with Zac Moffatt as Digital Director of the campaign.
Targeted Victory, LLC and FLS Connect, LLC rake in millions in
commissions. The central component to Rich Beeson’s get out the vote
operation is Project ORCA, which is headed by Zac Moffatt of Targeted
Victory, LLC, whose principal office in Minnesota is shared by FLS
Connect, LLC. As of October 26, 2012, Targeted Victory had been paid $64 million by Team Romney and FLS Connect had been paid $16.5 million.
And now the “L” in FLS Connect, Jeff Larson, will perform the autopsy on why Election Day and its related operations collapsed. . . .
The MNGOP Way: Incest Is Best, Or the Party that Pays Together
Bluestem is surprised that anyone in the Republican Party can feign shock, much less surprise at this news, since this sort of collective ingrown toenailhood has marked Larson's business dealing for the party for years.
Two 2011 articles at City Pages by Andy Mannix and Mike Mullen illustrate this point well, though not for the first time. There's their cover article, "RNC Piggy Bank", a fine piece of investigative journalism about Larson's involvement in staging the 2008 RNC convention and his profit from the committee created for the event. Go read it.
In mid-2008, it came out that Jeff Larson had been renting a
Washington, D.C. apartment to then-Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn), a close
friend and political cohort.
As a landlord, Larson -- the subject of last week's feature, "RNC Piggy Bank"
-- had been pretty lax on collecting rent. He allowed Coleman to miss
several payments, and even admitted to accepting furniture from Coleman
instead of a rent payment. This all raised ethical questions with
political watchdog groups, leading to a formal complaint with the Senate Ethics Committee.
But records show that Larson's career as a political landlord extends beyond this one incident.
In 2003, Larson was the founding treasurer of Coleman's political
action committee, Northstar Leadership. In the years since, Northstar
Leadership has paid more than $300,000 to Larson's telemarketing firm,
FLS Connect, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Some of this PAC money has gone toward Larson renting an office from FLS. In addition, Coleman for Senate '08, the Senator's official 2008 campaign committee, also rented an office from FLS. As did the 2008 Republican National Convention host committee, of which Larson was the CEO and treasurer.
At
one point, FLS was renting an office to Coleman's PAC, Coleman's
campaign committee, and the host committee, all at the same time. . . .
Coleman and Larson: Twin Brothers of Different Mothers?
Nor have former one-term wonder Coleman and Larson parted compaign when it comes to conservative campaign bidness. Coleman's American Action Net handed over some checks this year to Targeted Victory as well, according AAN's October Quarterly report of independent expenditures on file at the FEC.
Targeted Victory
P.O. Box 2187
Arlington, Virginia 22202
Expenditure Description: Internet Advertising and Website
Date Expended = 09/14/2012
In OPPOSITION to RICHARD MICHAEL NOLAN
Amount Expended = 28999.00 Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = 282738.63
Targeted Victory
P.O. Box 2187
Arlington, Virginia 22202
Expenditure Description: Internet Advertising and Website
Date Expended = 09/14/2012
In OPPOSITION to DAVID MICHAEL GILL
Amount Expended = 28999.00 Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = 183747.80
Targeted Victory
P.O. Box 2187
Arlington, Virginia 22202
Expenditure Description: Digital Advertising and Website
Date Expended = 09/14/2012
In OPPOSITION to RICHARD MICHAEL NOLAN
Amount Expended = 28999.00 Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = 311737.63
Targeted Victory
P.O. Box 2187
Arlington, Virginia 22202
Expenditure Description: Digital Advertising and Website
Date Expended = 09/14/2012
In OPPOSITION to JOSE M HERNANDEZ
Amount Expended = 28999.00 Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = 504183.40
Targeted Victory
P.O. Box 2187
Arlington, Virginia 22202
Expenditure Description: Digital Media Advertising and Website
Date Expended = 09/14/2012
In OPPOSITION to DAVID L CROOKS
Amount Expended = 28999.00 Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = 43935.74
As lame duck one-term congressman Chip Cravaack can attest, that $57,998 was money well spent on digital advertising and a website.
Photos: Jeff Larson, top; Norm Coleman, bottom.
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The race in Minnesota House District 8B is still razor thin following
a state-ordered recount in Douglas County Wednesday morning.
After
ballots from all 17 precincts were recounted, Republican incumbent Mary
Franson and DFL challenger Bob Cunniff each picked up one additional
vote.
The recount will now switch to the other county in the district, Otter Tail, where ballots will be scrutinized tomorrow. . . .
Only two ballots were challenged. Cunniff challenged a ballot in
Carlos Township and Franson questioned a ballot in Alexandria Ward 3.
Those challenges will be sent on the State Canvassing Board to consider
at its meeting on December 4.
In past recounts, a number of
ballots were the subject of arguments about voter intent. Such ballots
could determine the outcome of races as close as in House District 8B.
Challenged ballots will be posted on the secretary of state’s Web site (www.sos.state.mn.us) when available.
According to data on the Secretary of State's HD8B recount page, Franson received 4798 votes in Otter Tail County, while 3790 people voted for Cunniff. It's unlikely that the recount will change the winner
"Mr. Cunniff is very well known here in Alexandria. He's kind of an icon in the area," Franson said. "I didn't spend nearly as much time as I should have campaigning in Alexandria. ... I've learned a lot of lessons, from being first elected to being re-elected. (I think I'm) growing up with the job."
The most important lesson? Franson, who made headlines and sparked protests at the Capitol after her food stamp comments, said she's learned that "explanation is everything. If you're going to say something big, you'd better soften the blow first."
It's unlikely that that the results will change with tomorrow's count. Representative Franson was confident enough to tweet that she had bought two Powerball tickets for tonight's enormo $550 million+ jackpot. Who can blame her?
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But, as evidenced by the comments on the Post Bulletin's story, some
aren't happy about Hanson's sentimental victory, as it means taxpayers
will be on the hook for at least one more special election this spring,
and perhaps multiple elections if more than two candidates file and a
primary is needed.
Rochester DFL Rep. Kim Norton is considering drafting legislation
aimed at addressing a problem uncovered by this year's Rochester City
Council election.
Longtime Rochester City Council President Dennis Hanson's name
remained on the November ballot even though he passed away on June 27.
The issue is that state law does not allow a candidate's name to be
removed from the ballot in a nonpartisan race — even if the candidate
has died since filling to run. State law also did not allow for a
re-opening of the filing period. . . .
A special election is expected to be held in early April to fill the
seat, which is expected to cost between $50,000 to $60,000. But the
price tag could climb to $120,000 if a primary election is needed.
Norton said she wants to see if a change could be made to help avoid this type of situation in the future.
"We shouldn't have to spend this kind of money to do this. There should be a process in place," she said.
Photo: If Kim Norton has her way, voters won't be stuck with the tab for future encounters.
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On Thanksgiving, Bluestem posted Holiday post: just how thankful should Representative Mary Franson be for her luck?, which Gustavus math and computer science prof Max Hailperin calculated the odds of the shift to an eleven-vote margin for Representative Mary Franson (R-Douglas County) following a random pull of thirty-five ballots cast in three precincts in Douglas County.
Hailperin was concerned about the quality of his data because of frequent statistical differences between absentee and non-absentee ballots. As it turns out, the difference matters. Here's his update:
I got the data from Douglas County regarding the non-absentee ballots that were involved in the court-ordered ballot reduction process. As is quite typical, the non-absentee ballots were statistically rather different from the absentee ballots. Also, the total pool of ballots subject the the random selection was smaller than I had assumed in my preliminary numbers, because the absentee ballots weren't included. Putting those together, the net result is that Rep. Franson wasn't quite so lucky as I had initially given her credit for being, but still was lucky.
Where I had previously said 17%, the correct number is 24%.
Where I previously said 4.2, the correct number is 5.5.
Where I previously said 74%, the correct number is 81%.
Each of the two places I previously said 5%, the correct number is 4%.
Where I previously said 21%, the correct number is 15%.
Finally, where I said 16%, the correct number is 11%.
All of these numbers are cross-checked using both my original simulation approach (one million trials) and the more exact sum-of-hypergeometrics approach.
Whatever the odds, Bluestem is certain that Franson is thankful for the widened margin. It's unlikely that the recount will reverse the winner in the race, though not impossible.
The original post:
Bluestem hopes all readers are enjoying the holiday rituals of their
choice. We're grateful readers, especially ones like Max Hailperin,
who has calculated the odds for the new margin in yesterday's
Franson-Cunniff ballot pull.
He concludes: " In my simulations, a change at least this favorable to her
occurred 17% of the time. That's a small enough percentage that she
should definitely be thankful for good luck, but not so small as to cast
any doubt on the proceedings."
That's about 1 in 6 odds that the change in the margin would have been at least this favorable to Representative Franson.
Hailperin writes:
Programming a computer simulation of the random ballot withdrawal is a comparatively simple matte.
For each of the three precincts in question, I made a list of
simulated ballots with the appropriate mixture of them marked for
Cunniff, Franson, and neither. I then had my computer repeat one
million times the same procedure the Douglas County Canvassing Board
used. That is, it randomly selected 26 ballots from W1P1, 3 from W3, and
6 from W5P2.
In each of these million simulated cases, I had the computer total up
what the positive or negative change to Franson's vote margin was,
which was the number of withdrawn Cunniff ballots minus the number of
withdrawn Franson ballots. (Withdrawn ballots marked for neither of the
two candidates didn't affect the answer.)
My simulation assumed that all the ballots recorded for a particular
precinct were eligible for random selection, independent of whether they
were cast at the polling place or by absentee ballot. In reality, I
would assume the canvassing board would have just drawn the 26, 3, or 6
ballots from those cast at the polling place. I don't currently have
any way to rectify this error in my simulation because I don't have
access to the vote counts for just the non-absentee ballots. These are a
matter of public record -- in fact, a copy of the machine tapes showing
these numbers is taped to the outside door of each polling place at the
completion of the poll-closing activities. However, they are not so
easily available. The Secretary of State's web site shows the votes
after the separately-counted absentee ballots are added in.
As you know, the actual change in Franson's favor was 10 votes.
In my simulations, a change at least this favorable to her occurred 17%
of the time. That's a small enough percentage that she should
definitely be thankful for good luck, but not so small as to cast any
doubt on the proceedings.
For additional context, the average change over the million
simulations was about 4.2 votes in her favor. She increased her margin
by at least 1 vote in 74% of the simulations and broke even in 5%. Thus, there was about a 21% chance that Cunniff might have been the net winner of this ballot reduction process.
However, had this happened, his gain would almost surely not have been so large -- less than 1% of the time did he gain by 10 or more votes.
In fact, if he were to come out ahead at all, the most likely case
would be to just counteract Franson's original 1 vote margin; that
happened in about 5% of the simulations. That leaves only about a 16% chance that Cunniff would have headed into the recount in the lead.
The ballots now head to an automatic recount.
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One of the hazards of this new fortune? Sophomore state representative Kurt Daudt (R-Crown), an assistant minority leader in his freshman term, is now Minority Leader.
Daudtful of "compromise"
Daudt recently told Forum Communications political reporter Kurt Daudt that he knows his place--and given the size of their majority, House Democrats won't have much use for his caucus until bonding time, when approval requires more votes than the number of Democrats in the lower chamber.
After that 2010 election, some Minnesota Republican lawmakers thought
“compromise” was a dirty word, citing voters’ support of their economic
policies as a reason not to compromise with liberal Gov. Mark Dayton on
tax and spending policies.
The incoming GOP House leader avoids the word “compromise” for a different reason.
“I
don’t like to use the word ‘compromise’ because I think it is misused,”
Daudt said. “I like to use words like willing to work together, and I
am someone who is willing to take what I can get.”
Daudt added: “I have yet to see someone compromise here in St. Paul.”
How nice.
2011: Daudt "learned what compromise is"
Daudt seems to have compromised his definition of the word since a July 15, 2011 interview with Tom Crann on Minnesota Public Radio. MPR interview Daudt and veteran DFL state senator Sandy Pappas throughout the 2011 session.
Crann: On the start of the third week of Minnesota's government shutdown, it looks like there's an end in sight. Legislators are working with Governor Dayton's administration to hammer out details of the budget outline agreement announced yesterday.
They're working with a ten o'clock deadline tonight to hammer those details out. Republican leaders say it could take days to finish writing those bills but once they're done, the Governor is expected to call a special session to get them passed.
Throughout the regular session, we've been checking in with a couple of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. We're checking back in with them now that there is a budget deal announced, on the table and now that the shutdown could end. First, freshman Republican state representative Kurt Daudt joins me in the studio. He's an Assistant Majority Leader from Isanti [County]. Good to have you to here. . . .
Crann: So, a lot of disappointment. It seems like yesterday's announcment of this--it was not a joyous toned event, so I'm wondering first what do you both think of the deal? And I'll start with Representative Daudt.
Daudt: Well, you know, this is obviously all new for me as a freshman, and I've learned what compromise is. It's not certainly the deal that I would have, if I could have dictated this from the beginning, it's not the deal I would have chosen.
ButI think the one thing we can all agree upon now is everybody wants to end the shutdown as soon as possible, so if this is the deal that gets us there, it certainly the direction we have to move.
Crann: Senator Pappas?
Pappas: I'm sorry, I don't know what the representative is talking about in terms of compromise because it seems to me the Republican leaders just kept saying the same thing over and over and calling it a compromise. That's not a compromise. Compromise is when you make an offer, when you respond to the other side's offers, and I felt like Governor Dayton kept trying to get an offer and in the end was just negotiating with himself.
Crann: But in the end, how do you feel about the deal?
Pappas: I think it's a terrible deal. I think it's terrible for the future of Minnesota. It's a terrible idea to borrow against the future, both from the schools and from the tobacco endowment. I don't think there's any--as we talk about long-term reform, I don't think there's any in it. I think a lot of people are going to be hurt.
We had short-term pain with the shutdown and now we're going to have longterm pain as people get laid-off permanently from their jobs.
Crann: Representative Daudt, what do you make of that charge that the Governor here and the Democrats compromised more than Republicans. Where was the compromise for Republicans?
Daudt: Well, Tom, as I've learned as I gotten down here, there's two sides to every story, and we see that much differently. Obviously, the compromise for us, we don't like the education shift, it's not something that is responsible, the Governor proposed a 50-50 shift, we thought that was very irresponsible. The compromise was, currently we're at 70-30, he proposed 50-50, we met him in the middle at a compromise of 60-40 and you know, I received hundreds of emails asking me to compromise and when we do it . . .
Here's the audio, where Daudt uses the word "compromise":
Daudt introduced the word, and defended its use.
Nor is this the only example of where Daudt talks about compromises. In response to a constituent's letter, Daudt wrote:
Brett,
I have participated directly in compromise and negotiations that have
helped move us extremely close to agreement on our budget, and I remain
willing to get together and continue the process toward a budget
agreement. However, Governor Dayton has not given his commissioners
permission to resume negotiations, and I am not sure when we will have
the next opportunity. There needs to be a greater sense of urgency to
get this done!
I encourage you to read the St. Paul Pioneer Press editorial from
Saturday. It contains important facts about our compromise and proposal:
http://www.twincities.com/opinion/ci_18442599.
It is hard to argue we have not met the Governor half way — at a time
when Minnesota’s financial and economic condition makes that extremely
difficult. . . .
Bluestem suspects that a communications staffer or consultant has recommended that Daudt avoid the word "compromise" and instead blither on about "working together with" the Democratic majorities.
Having learned the meaning and value of compromise in his first term, he does seem to have stricken the word as his second begins.
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Photo: Kurt Daudt via Peter Bartz-Gallagher at PIM.
In a “Where Do We Go From Here?” panel on November 19, state representative-elect Cindy Pugh (R-33B) shared her thoughts with the SW Metro Tea Party, a group she co-founded.
While the group has yet to post video of the event, it has posted minutes. From those minutes, here's the introduction along with the summary of what Pugh had to say:
Tonight’s program, “Where Do We Go From Here?” featured a panel discussion with Mary Amlaw, Paul Carlson, David Fitzsimmons and Cindy Pugh. There was an individual presentation from each panel member and then questions were taken from the audience. .
. . .Cindy Pugh has optimism despite the election. Cindy listed the threats we face: (1) An illiterate,
disengaged and lazy electorate. (2) The physical size and scope of our government. (3) The media.
(4) The progressive movement – on both sides of the aisle. (5) The infiltration of the Muslim
brotherhood.
Cindy encouraged us to bounce right back, be proud of 2010, to wake up as many people as possible.
What we can do: (1) Set sights on 2014 with confidence. (2) Focus locally. The campaign starts now.
Promote freedom and liberty. (3) Arm ourselves with knowledge … definition of terms, the treaties in
which the Senate may vote away our sovereignty, Agenda 21. (4) Look into the other side’s narrative
– what their talking points are. (5) Look into the Social Studies Standards at Education Liberty Watch
and how our history is being rewritten in textbooks. (6) Pay attention to what the coalition of 57
Muslim nations is doing to promote law through the UN.
That's quite the agenda, contrasting sharply with the summary of what Dave Fitzsimmons, the other representative-elect on the panel had to say:
David Fitzsimmons described the Left’s way of operating and recommends that the Right has to set long-term goals and make a plan to achieve them.
Since the minutes were posted on a group Pugh leads, Bluestem will assume that Pugh is comfortable with the representation of her remarks. We look forward to watching the video.
Will she be as unbridled in her observations when she takes to the floor of the Minnesota House? Bloggers of all stripes can only hope. There's nothing like a good round of a politician calling voters illiterate and lazy to build traffic.
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If you don't like using PayPal, email at the address on this page for a
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Christmas.
Photo: Cindy Pugh, America's Anti-Muslim Sweetheart and so much the shield against Agenda 21 paving your bike paths.
There is strength in numbers, but in the past
election the numbers weren't on the side of those who care about
Christian values. The lack of unity in the church has caused us to lose
ground in the fight to keep the sanctity of marriage between a man and a
woman.
This election saw residents of Minnesota, Maryland, Maine and Washington all vote their approval of same-sex marriage.
Statistics suggest that even many self-identified Christians joined in
this approval, while other believers either didn't vote or chose to
remain silent on the issue in the run-up to the ballots. Where is the
wisdom in all of this? If the Bible says that the “fear of The Lord is
the beginning of wisdom” (Ps. 111:10), then it is clear that as a nation
we have lost the fear of God.
As the presence of Pastor Grant Stevensen, the Lutheran minister who headed Minnesotans United for All Families organizing in the faith communities, might suggest, maybe not.
But more importantly, we Minnesotans weren't voting to allow cute boys and strong women to marry; we were voting to stop folks like Boyne from hijacking our liberities by enshrining marriage inequality in the state constitution. Marriage freedom is next.
This issue is not about being black, white, Hispanic, Asian, or any
other race or ethnicity. This is about winning souls and discipling
those who come to Christ. Across the nation our churches are filled with
tens of thousand of Christians who are afraid to reach out to those who
are caught in the bondage of homosexuality, tell them there is hope and
healing in Christ, and then walk that road to wholeness alongside them.
Uh-huh. Bluestem doesn't inquire into the romantic practices of our queer friends, so we simply can't speculate whether bondage is involved or not. While the fetish of observing such things (especially if the boys are ripped) holds a certain amount of intellectual charm, friends know we're not really into spectator sports.
Dear believer, how are we going to deal with this issue in our churches, in our communities and in our nation? Will history say we fought the good fight to push back the forces of darkness? Or will we ultimately be condemned as cowards?
It's time that a united church body across the land stand up for righteousness and align ourselves with God's truth. We are called to love all, and we must never compromise on that command. But in loving the lost we must also not compromise on the rest of Scripture, which makes it clear that
while God is merciful, He is also just and will ultimately punish those who are living in sin.
Call it the Disciple and Punish movement, or salvation of docile bodies by the divine panopticon.
According to Dump Bachmann, which has been keeping an eye on Boyne for the last 10 million news cycles, the gay whisperer last surfaced during the national media's investigations into Marcus Bachmann's mental health clinic.
If there was even ONE self-declared "ex-gay"
who didn't marry their supposed "change" out of homosexuality with
their concurrent move away from things like drug abuse, past traumas,
promiscuity, and clubbing, then that movement wouldn't come across quite
as misguidedly. But that is NEVER the case. The standard "ex-gay"
script always details their "conversion" as being not only a move away
from simply their attractions to the same gender. Instead, their "godly
intervention" is presented as a move away from a whole host of
behaviors and traumas that they present as innately connected to
homosexuality, full well knowing that such a presentation will much more
fully stigmatize LGBT people (the primary goal of a movement that
identifies themselves not as what they currently claim to be, but as a
'former' member of the community they are now politically opposing). . . .
. . .. "Ex-gay" is not just a program of "helping" the "poor, immoral,
deviant" gay folk. This is a thoroughly political movement that is
meant to tell every aspect of society that while heterosexuality is
perfectly normal and in-born, homosexuality is a
choice/mistake/aberration in need of "changing." Why do you think the
anti-gay groups invest so much money in it? It's because they want it
need it to be successful in order to justify how they can, in good
evangelical conscience, discriminate against queer people. if it's a
"choice" to be gay, then they can keep the "love the sinner, hate the
sin" nonsense alive. And if they can marriage gay sex and its
associated orientation with far more universally relatable concepts like
drugs and partying, then they can keep the "gay lifestyle is evil" meme
alive in many social conservatives' heads. These folks don't need to
meet an actual living, breathing LGBT person: Focus on the Family has
already told them all that they think they need to know.
Boyne's personal story fits this pattern--and one thing Bluestem has noticed is that Boyne's ministry deploys the discourse of an abuser.
There's a whole lot from Boyne and her kindred about punishment and control, while the notion of love--like the Catholic preferential option for the poor-- among these communities seems to have fled to shelter in the mysterious Lacunae of the Blessed.
Who would have guessed?
More human sexuality theory from Charisma Magazine
Charisma Magazine, source of Boyne's recent column, also shares some rather curious theories about the origins of affectional orientation. In a recent article, Can You Be Raped by the Devil?, readers learn:
As bizarre as it sounds, those who minister to people in occult bondage say it's more common than you think.
For
nearly two decades, Contessa Adams felt as though she had no power
against the demonic violators of her body. She felt trapped in secrecy
and shame and knew that the demons tormenting her wanted things to stay
that way.
But God had another agenda for
Adams when she found Christ in 1979. The former stripper has a ministry
through which she exposes one of Satan's darkest secrets—sexual demons
. . .The two most identifiable sexual demons are the incubus, which is a male
sexual demon that traditionally assaults women, and the succubus, which
is a female sexual demon that assaults men. Sometimes they also lure
people into homosexual behavior. . . .
Adams says the succubus spirit that used to attack her confused her so much that she contemplated becoming a lesbian.
For ourselves, Bluestem will be sticking to the pleasures of zombie movies on Netflix, while keeping an eye out on the body of believers who read Charisma.
Blog begathon: Bluestem is supported by reader contributions. If you liked this post, consider throwing some coin to the tip jar below. If you don't like using PayPal, email at the address on this page for a snail mail address. We'll be running our twice-yearly "bleg" though Christmas.
With control of the Legislature, “DFLers can literally do what they
want,” Newman said. But he warned if Gov. Dayton tries to push a $40
billion budget and repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), “I think
the people (voters) will set them straight in two years.”
Newman was the senate author of one of two amendments to drive voters to the polls on emotionally-charged social issues. Unfortunately for Newman, the voters turned down his voter restriction amendment as well as an amendment to restrict marriage to opposite gender couples.
Those voters also swept his party from power in both chambers of the legislature. Perhaps Senator Newman could write a manual of voter behavior for the Republican Party of Minnesota and DFLers could insist the that the loyal opposition follow this manual to the letter.
News editors in Senate District 18 took notice of the people's reaction to Newman's amendment. In Republicans lost their way with voter ID, the editorial board of the Litchfield Independent Review writes:
No wonder Sen. Scott Newman, R-Hutchinson, has been working so
hard to silence Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, a vocal critic of the
defeated voter ID amendment.
As it turned out, the more people learned about the amendment,
the more likely they were to vote against it. Newman, the amendment’s
author in the state senate, accused Ritchie of spreading falsehoods
about the measure and doing so on the taxpayer’s dime. He even filed
three different complaints against Ritchie alleging various wrongdoings.
A judge dismissed one of those complaints two weeks ago, stating that
Ritchie had raised reasonable concerns about the amendment’s potential
costs and effects on the voting process.
Only a week before the election, polls indicated the amendment
commanded widespread support, but that support deteriorated quickly as
opponents hammered on the issue of cost and voter disenfranchisement.
Newman and other proponents vehemently derided the opposition, but they
provided little information to counter opponents’ claims. . .
. . .Republicans get sidetracked
when they attempt to moralize, such as with the marriage amendment, and
tell local governments what to do, such as with the voter ID amendment.
It’s possible Republicans would still control the Legislature had they
not allowed their status as the majority go to their collective heads.
Now, the Legislature is controlled entirely by the DFL, and a DFLer is
calling the shots as governor.
And what do Republicans have to show for themselves as a result
of their efforts while in the majority? Two defeated and ill-conceived
amendments. On the bright side, perhaps Republicans might find a lesson
to be learned. Then again, knowing politicians, they’ll probably learn
the wrong one.
What will the DFL majorities do first?
What are Newman's DFL colleagues planning? Senate Majority Leader Bakk is fighting public pressure to move the discussion of gay marriage forward, according to Forum Communications political reporter Don Davis's article in the Grand Forks Herald, Policy and politics quiet in Capitol, but still there:
Given an expected state deficit and the federal questions, Bakk says
he wants to limit debate on items that do not involve the budget.
One issue he is fighting is eliminating a law that bans gay marriage.
“We
are getting some calls from some real liberal constituencies on the gay
marriage issue and repealing the language in statute,” Bakk said.
Such
requests were expected given the fact that it has been 22 years since
Democrats controlled both chambers of the Legislature and held the
governor’s office. But Bakk said that Democrats have to balance serving
their constituencies and adopting the budget.
In a recent interview in MinnPost, House Speaker-designate Paul Thissen: ‘First job is fixing the budget long term,' the Speaker suggested that Newman's approach to naming and damning a dollar figure on the budget might be part of the problem that prevents the legislature from getting its work done:
MP: Can we anticipate a larger budget overall?
PT: I
think we need to focus in on priorities, so the thing that everybody
first has to remember is that we still continue to face a budget deficit
… That’s going to be fairly significant, particularly when you take
into account the fact that we do have this obligation we have to pay
back to the schools …
Republicans have asked this legitimately as
well, but, what often happens is you kind of pick out a number and say,
“This is the budget, and we’ve got to fit it within this budget number,
right?” What I hope that we do is actually kind of step back from that a
little bit and say, “Where are the things that we can make investments
in that are going to make us grow our economy over the long term and do
better for the people of Minnesota, and where are those places that we
can … continue to scale back where they’re not serving their purposes?” . . . .
Bluestem suspects that the DFL caucuses will focus on the budget--especially with an eye to paying the schools back, and closing the looming budget gap that has always been a part of the deal Republicans negotiated with Dayton to end the shutdown--and the sort of tax reform questions that Thissen brings in the MinnPost interview.
What will the DFL majorities do next?
That being said: it's unrealistic for anyone to expect the conversation about marriage that Minnesotans United for All Families started to go away, especially in light of the brilliant organizing and partnership bullding that Richard Carlbom and other leaders put together, although its goal was simply defeat of the amendment.
The coalition didn't argue that current law protected Minnesotans from cute boys marrying each other. Those working to defeat the amendment mostly argued for marriage equality. Perhaps more importantly, they conducted this argument across party lines, across religious lines, across ethnic and racial lines; why anyone would expect the positive argument to vanish into the snow escapes Bluestem's thinking.
As does Newman's claim to knowing the people's minds outside of the deep-red compound that is Senate District 18.
Outfront Minnesota is holding a day-long summit on December 1 to discuss the next steps forward:
The day-long Equal & Justice conference, starting at 9am, will bring
together community members, leaders, activists and volunteers to take a
deeper look at the issues facing the LGBTQA community currently:
marriage, safe schools, and healthcare. You will have the chance to
develop skills and get inspired to make plans and work on these issues
in your community in 2013.
MN United's Facebook page recommends the summit. According to MN United's About page, Outfront is one of the group's founders:
Outfront MN &Project 515jointly
founded this campaign just hours after this amendment was passed by the
Minnesota House of Representatives in May of 2011. Since then, our coalition has grown rapidly to defeat this unnecessary amendment that would limit the freedoms of Minnesotans
Will the coalition's persuasive skills trump Scott Newman's assumptions about the hearts and minds of Minnesota's voters? It wouldn't be the first time.
And with the DFL holding the majority and the governor's office, setting a budget won't be the gridlock we're used to experiencing, however much Newman promised the Glencoe paper that he'll throw temper tantrums:
He said the goal of a minority committee member is to amend the majority
bill. When the majority totally ignores the minority, “it will get
ugly and noisy.”
Ugly and noisy? How does that differ from Newman's governing style while in the majority?
Photo: Scott Newman is so not happy with Minnesota voters' ability to think about stuff, while House voter id restriction author Mary Kiffmeer lost the War on Voters. Will Republicans like Newman and Kiffmeyer lose The War on Gay?
Blog begathon: Bluestem is supported by reader contributions. If you liked this post, consider throwing some coin to the tip jar below. If you don't like using PayPal, email at the address on this page for a snail mail address. We'll be running our twice-yearly "bleg" though Christmas.
Happy thanksgiving. Bluestem hopes all readers are enjoying the holiday rituals of their choice. We're grateful readers, especially ones like Max Hailperin, who has calculated the odds for the new margin in yesterday's Franson-Cunniff ballot pull.
He concludes: " In my simulations, a change at least this favorable to her
occurred 17% of the time. That's a small enough percentage that she
should definitely be thankful for good luck, but not so small as to cast
any doubt on the proceedings."
That's about 1 in 6 odds that the change in the margin would have been at least this favorable to Representative Franson.
Hailperin writes:
Programming a computer simulation of the random ballot withdrawal is a comparatively simple matte.
For each of the three precincts in question, I made a list of simulated ballots with the appropriate mixture of them marked for Cunniff, Franson, and neither. I then had my computer repeat one million times the same procedure the Douglas County Canvassing Board used. That is, it randomly selected 26 ballots from W1P1, 3 from W3, and 6 from W5P2.
In each of these million simulated cases, I had the computer total up what the positive or negative change to Franson's vote margin was, which was the number of withdrawn Cunniff ballots minus the number of withdrawn Franson ballots. (Withdrawn ballots marked for neither of the two candidates didn't affect the answer.)
My simulation assumed that all the ballots recorded for a particular
precinct were eligible for random selection, independent of whether they
were cast at the polling place or by absentee ballot. In reality, I
would assume the canvassing board would have just drawn the 26, 3, or 6
ballots from those cast at the polling place. I don't currently have
any way to rectify this error in my simulation because I don't have
access to the vote counts for just the non-absentee ballots. These are a
matter of public record -- in fact, a copy of the machine tapes showing
these numbers is taped to the outside door of each polling place at the
completion of the poll-closing activities. However, they are not so
easily available. The Secretary of State's web site shows the votes
after the separately-counted absentee ballots are added in.
As you know, the actual change in Franson's favor was 10 votes. In my simulations, a change at least this favorable to her occurred 17% of the time. That's a small enough percentage that she should definitely be thankful for good luck, but not so small as to cast any doubt on the proceedings.
For additional context, the average change over the million simulations was about 4.2 votes in her favor. She increased her margin by at least 1 vote in 74% of the simulations and broke even in 5%. Thus, there was about a 21% chance that Cunniff might have been the net winner of this ballot reduction process.
However, had this happened, his gain would almost surely not have been so large -- less than 1% of the time did he gain by 10 or more votes.
In fact, if he were to come out ahead at all, the most likely case would be to just counteract Franson's original 1 vote margin; that happened in about 5% of the simulations. That leaves only about a 16% chance that Cunniff would have headed into the recount in the lead.
The ballots now head to an automatic recount.
New calculations (From Nov. 26, 2016):
I got the data from Douglas County regarding the non-absentee ballots
that were involved in the court-ordered ballot reduction process. As
is quite typical, the non-absentee ballots were statistically rather
different from the absentee ballots. Also, the total pool of ballots
subject the the random selection was smaller than I had assumed in my
preliminary numbers, because the absentee ballots weren't included.
Putting those together, the net result is that Rep. Franson wasn't quite
so lucky as I had initially given her credit for being, but still was
lucky.
Where I had previously said 17%, the correct number is 24%.
Where I previously said 4.2, the correct number is 5.5.
Where I previously said 74%, the correct number is 81%.
Each of the two places I previously said 5%, the correct number is 4%.
Where I previously said 21%, the correct number is 15%.
Finally, where I said 16%, the correct number is 11%.
All of these numbers are cross-checked using both my original
simulation approach (one million trials) and the more exact
sum-of-hypergeometrics approach.
Photo: Liberty demonstrates its gratitude to President Bush for a pardon in 2001. A lucky bird or not? Check your worldview. This photo has nothing to do with Minnesota, but it is our all-time favorite political Thanksgiving picture.
Franson now leads by 11 votes, according to a note on her personal Facebook page posted two hours ago.
Update: The vote total is Franson 10640, Cunniff 10629 or 49.98% to 49.93% w/ 19 write-ins,according to a tweet by AP reporter Brian Bakst. [end update]
Of the ballots removed, 22 were for Cunniff, 12 were for Franson and
one was not marked. Subtracting those votes from the district-wide
totals gives Franson an 11-vote edge, 10,640 to 10,629. Franson held
just a one-vote lead after the votes were initially tallied.
The new totals were certified and sent to the state where a recount is expected to be ordered next week.
Vote totals in other races also changed but not nearly enough to affect any outcomes. [end update]
In a statement to Bluestem, Franson writes:
I'm cautiously optimistic that my Election Night victory will be upheld
by the recount and I will be able to continue to serve my constituents, I
thank the many county and court staff who have maintained their
professionalism in this process. Until the recount, I will pray that
God's will be done, while preparing to return to St. Paul in January.
Far from putting her win at jeopardy, the odds were that her margin of victory would grow as ballots were pulled from precincts in Alexandria that had broken heavily for Cunniff. There being more votes for Cunniff marked on the ballots, the more likely that Cunniff-favoring ballots would be pulled, and thus votes for Cunniff subtracted from his totals.
Of course, this was not guaranteed, as these things are indeed random, but as we predicted, Franson's winning margin has widened.
Next up? An automatic recount. Should Franson's victory hold, few remedies remain for Cunniff.
Photo: The luckiest House candidate ever? Mary Franson, whose margin widened with the random vote pull dictated by state law in general and a judge's order yesterday.
What century is this?WCCO-TV’s Pat Kessler reports on the rather medieval approach to House District 8B’s mangled election: “A Minnesota judge has ruled that election officials must randomly cancel 35 ballots in a tight legislative
race due to a counting error. The law says judges must close their
eyes, reach into the pile of votes and pull out excess ballots at
random. The action has ramifications for the unresolved contest between
Republican Rep. Mary Franson and Democratic challenger Bob Cunniff.
Franson is ahead by a single vote pending a probable recount. A Douglas
County judge sided Tuesday with Franson and ordered that the county
canvassing board remove the ballots before a tally is certified on
Wednesday.” How about we throw a dead cat over a nun’s left shoulder and
see if it floats?
One Minnesota candidate has already been swept into office via this "rather medieval" method: Dale Fenrich.
Earlier this month, a tie for county commissioner in Meeker County was
settled by a random ballot being pulled, the Litchfield Independent
Review reported in Voting error goes in Fenrich's favor:
A voting error at a precinct in Litchfield Township broke a tie
in the race for District 2 County Commissioner, resulting in the Meeker
County Auditor’s Office Friday declaring Dale Fenrich the winner by one
vote.
Unofficial election night results listed the two candidates in a
dead heat, with 1,069 votes each for Fenrich and incumbent Dave
Gabrielson. However, after reviewing results, staff from the auditor’s
office identified a discrepancy between the number of voter signatures
on the roster and the ballots counted for Litchfield Township, according
to a news release from Meeker County Auditor Barb Loch on Friday
morning. The discrepancy was also noted by the Litchfield Township
election judges on their incident log.
On Friday, Loch said the log indicates a voter
accidentally received and cast two ballots. She said the log states,
"Voter received two ballots. Voted on front of one and back of the
other. Deposited both into the scanner before election judge could
intervene.”
Loch said voting errors are not unusual, though they
rarely affect the outcome of a vote. "This one is notorious because it
was dead-on even," she said.
Loch said her office followed state law requiring the
number of voter signatures to match the number of ballots counted in a
precinct. In the case of Litchfield Township, there was one extra
ballot, Loch said. On Thursday, one ballot was randomly selected and
removed from a box containing all ballots cast in Litchfield Township.
Two election judges witnessed the process, Loch said.
In removing the extra ballot, the results for the
County Commissioner District 2 race now show Fenrich with 1,069 votes
and Gabrielson with 1,068 votes. The results were officially approved
Friday at a County Canvas Board meeting.
A City Council race in Albertville that hinged on a single contested ballot has instead been decided by a coin flip.
The initial vote count had candidate Mark Barthel winning by one vote. A
recount reversed the outcome, with Larry Sorensen up by one vote.
Barthel then contested a ballot in which the voter only partially
filled in the bubble next to Sorensen's name. The City Council was
divided on whether the ballot should be considered valid, prompting
Monday's coin toss.
Sorensen was assigned heads and Barthel tails. A Minneapolis Star Tribune report says heads prevailed.
Sorensen says the outcome proves how true it is that every vote counts. Barthel says he respects the integrity of the process.
Look to Mary Kiffmeyer to introduce a constitutional amendment banning coins, which would put an end to this sort of thing.
All of the statements, opinions, and views expressed on this site by Sally Jo Sorensen are solely her own, save when she attributes them to other sources.
The opinions, statements, and views of contributing writers are their own.
Sorensen, editor and proprietor of Bluestem Prairie, served as a New Media training and strategy consultant for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party from October 2009 through mid-April 2010. She now serves clients in the business and nonprofit sectors.
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