Don't let the latest poll fool you: it's going to take a magnificent ground game, hyper-great GOTV and cold hard cash for Tim Walz to beat incumbent backbencher Gil Gutknecht.
If you can volunteer, contact the Walz campaign. Contribute directly to the campaign or via the Netroots ActBlue Candidates page.
AIR AMERICA INTERVIEW AT 11:30 TODAY
Tim Walz will be a guest on Al Franken's Air America show at 11:30am CST. Our readers in the Twin Cities can hear the show on
AM 950. Those outside the Twin Cities area (most of our readership) can listen
online at www.airamericaradio.com. The Angry Progressives note the appearance (eastern time).
For ourselves, we're happy progressives.
MINNESOTA CAMPAIGN REPORT: GUTKNECHT TWISTS TRUTH IN ATTACK AD
Joe Bodell says it ain't so after looking at a Gutknecht ad attacking Walz on immigration. Go read the whole thing over at MnCR.
NETROOTS ON POLLING
Democracy for Minnesota's blog takes a look at Polls! The U-DFL likes what they see and Evil Bobby notes he's been hearing the same news from former MN-01 Republicans for months now .
The Big Question repeats the CW about the Fighting First and the utter surprise at the closeness in the district race.
Memo to Strib editors: if your news narrative isn't accurate, assign some reporters to do some real news gathering.
A brief survey of articles drawn from Nexis revealed that very little of the Strib's coverage has been generated from reporters actually covering the race from within the district.
Your reporters won't even have to get off four-lane roads to cover this race; there's I-35 and I-90; 52 goes to Rochester, and 169 is a four-lane road clear past Mankato. The price of gas is down. Give it a try.
If your reporters are only going to talk to political scientists, have them ask what recent polling data supports the professors' learned opinion, rather than simply allowing them to reach back to very different races in years past.
Bluestem Prairie also offers an easy way to find articles from district newspapers since mid-July. Research what local papers have been writing. Those who have been paying attention to local news about this race aren't surprised that it's close. And it's not just backlash against Republicans, either, folks.
It's Tim Walz.
A most astute comment :
Don't let the latest poll fool you: it's going to take a magnificent ground game.
Here’s my two cents on the polling data.
This is very good news as it demonstrates that Walz is a viable candidate. I understand that the polling methodology can be questioned, but Walz passed the first test as respondents said they would vote for him. Name recognition is critical for unproven challengers. People don't want to vote for someone that might be a loser. Second, it passes what I call the Bush-challenge. My assessment of the 2004 election was that voters were motivated based on fear and pride/embarrassment. As I discussed the Kerry-Bush race with voters in 2004, the common comment from independents was fear that Kerry would raise their taxes … as much as I would try to explain his tax proposals, Bush’s “you can’t trust Dems with your money” was firmly entrenched in their brains. That’s why I keep harping that Bush will veto any tax increase … to negate that concern. The pride/embarrassment aspect referred to Iraq … there wasn’t a significant difference between Kerry and Bush’s Iraq policy (both would have stayed the course, but Kerry would have called a summit and engaged other countries … too bad that wasn’t done) … but I suspect that many people did not want to admit that maybe invading Iraq was a mistake, so either in false bravado or embarrassment, they voted for Bush. People look at Iraq differently today.
All that stated, let’s remember this is only pre-season. This poll should encourage both parties to get-the-vote-out … and also engage the Independents to participate. Let’s remember that there are roughly 700,000 citizens in the First District including minors who cannot vote so let’s deduct 50,000 leaving 650,000 potential voters … but there less than 375,000 were registered for 2004. So there are a lot potential voters that should be encouraged to participate.
Wouldn’t it be great to contact potential voters at :
Rochester Community and Technical College
Minnesota West in Worthington
Riverland in Albert Lea
Gustavus Adolphus in St. Peter
Southwest MN State University in Marshall
MN State University in Mankato
Winona State University
The Boehner visit to MSU-Mankato brought out a lot of engaged (and enraged) students, but there are a lot more out there. If they reside in the district on election day, they can claim it as their voting residence.
The second pre-season event is the newspaper editorials. If Walz can break the strangehold that Gutknecht has enjoyed, that would be very encouraging … so send out those Letter-to-the Editors … they might not be printed, but they will be read by the newspaper’s editors … and who knows if that could opens some minds.
But the only poll that counts is November 7th … unless you vote absentee.
Posted by: MinnesotaCentral | October 13, 2006 at 05:29 PM