A Bluestem Prairie

Friday Morning: MN-01 race a coin flip?

HOUSTON COUNTY NEWS LTE: WE CAN DO BETTER THAN GUTKNECHT
Chuck Chihak of LaCrescent thinks that people in the First deserve better:

I’m surprised Mr. Gutknecht is running for Congress again.  Twelve years ago he expressed disgust with career politicians and vowed to serve no more than 12 years.  Having broken his word, he also recently tried to quietly eliminate evidence of that pledge off a website carrying his biography.  So we now know he’s already a career politician, he lies, breaks his word and is sneaky.  He also has his fingerprints all over a $9 trillion budget deficit, a failed policy in Iraq and over 4 million American jobs shipped overseas while middle class buying power shrinks and the rich get tax breaks. He’s obviously part of the problem in Washington.  Let’s help him keep that pledge of no more than 12 years in Congress. We can do a lot better than Gil Gutknecht.

Charlie Warner, the editor of the Houston county News, writes that "An avalanche of letters is healthy." We agree.

KTTC: GUTKNECHT AND WALZ DEBATE
Yet even more debating:

Nationwide focus is on a congressional on a race by both political parties
 
While US house candidates Gil Gutknecht and Tim Walz, they agree on what the big issues are for this election.
 
They differ when it comes to ways for fixing them.
 
With a flip of a coin, each candidate has a 50-50 chance to speak first or last in a debate and according to recent voting polls, the odds in the District 1 House race could come down to just that, a coin flip.
 
In the red corner, Republican candidate Representative Gil Gutknecht.  In the blue corner DFL candidate  Tim Walz.  [read more]

NETROOTS
Craig's Sit notes that Tim Still on a Roll.  Vox Verax takes A Closer Look at MN 1 and finds Big doin's in Minnesota's 1st CD.  Midwest Values PAC blogs about the new veterans ad in VoteVets.org Releases Anti-Gutknecht Ad.

Finally, a couple of articles from the  national press aren't directly about the Fighting First, but do relate to issues in the campaigns.

CQ POLITICS: IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID? NOT THIS TIME
An interesting discussion of why the Republicans' attempt to save themselves by campaigning on the economy isn't working.  Guess it's back to Iraq for Minnesota Republicans--a move that's kinda awkward for Gutknecht.  Gutknecht's reduced to distorting Walz's immigration plan.

NEW YORK TIMES ECONOMIX: RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE
Gil Gutknechts' votes against raising the minimum wage have been an issue throughout the campaign. Conservatives like to paint proposals to raise the minimum wage as job killers. But recent data suggests that position doesn't hold up:

Ten years have passed since Congress last voted to raise the minimum wage, and it has drifted down to a 50-year low in inflation-adjusted terms, about a third lower than it was at its peak in the late 1960’s. In 1968, an hour’s worth of minimum wage work bought almost five gallons of gas. Today, it buys less than three gallons.

Every time the issue has come up in Congress or in the states, opponents have raised the same specter of mass unemployment that was part of the fight over Social Security. . . .

[snip]

Yet such arguments seem to be falling flat with voters. A recent poll in Colorado shows 69 percent supporting the measure there, and only 26 percent opposed. In the other five states, the initiatives have similarly big leads, if the polls are to be believed. Already, 21 states have minimum wages higher than $5.15.

I think there are two main reasons for the enormous popularity of the proposals. By now, many people probably understand that the dire predictions about higher minimum wages don’t come true. In the 10 years since Congress raised the minimum wage, crime didn’t become an epic problem, as Mr. Brown forecast. Instead, it has fallen sharply.

In fact, modest rises in the minimum wage don’t even appear to kill many jobs. The recent state increases have created a series of natural experiments for researchers to study, and they have generally found that modest changes have only minor effects on employment levels. Some have found no net effect. Higher wages may end up lifting employee morale and reducing turnover, making business more productive and mitigating some of the higher labor costs.

As Alan S. Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, says, “What’s changed in the last 10 to 15 years is an accumulation of pretty convincing evidence that the employment problem is not very significant.”

[snip]

The second big cause of the proposals’ popularity stems in all likelihood from the rise of income inequality. The American economy has done so well at creating jobs in recent decades that almost anybody who wants work can find it. The problem is that too many jobs still don’t pay a decent living. . . .

WASHINGTON POST: THE YEAR OF PLAYING DIRTIER
The Washington Post takes a look at the way in which political ads are getting "positively surreal" across the country:

On the brink of what could be a power-shifting election, it is kitchen-sink time: Desperate candidates are throwing everything. While negative campaigning is a tradition in American politics, this year's version in many races has an eccentric shade, filled with allegations of moral bankruptcy and sexual perversion.

At the same time, the growth of "independent expenditures" by national parties and other groups has allowed candidates to distance themselves from distasteful attacks on their opponents, while blogs and YouTube have provided free distribution networks for eye-catching hatchet jobs.

"When the news is bad, the ads tend to be negative," said Shanto Iyengar, a Stanford professor who studies political advertising. "And the more negative the ad, the more likely it is to get free media coverage. So there's a big incentive to go to the extremes."

The result has been a carnival of ugly, especially on the GOP side, where operatives are trying to counter what polls show is a hostile political environment by casting opponents as fatally flawed characters. The National Republican Campaign Committee is spending more than 90 percent of its advertising budget on negative ads, according to GOP operatives, and the rest of the party seems to be following suit.

How much ugliness will be brought to Minnesota's Fighting First? 

A busy day ahead, but we'll try to post as time permits.

AP: Walz outraises Gutknecht--again!

Via the Pioneer Press, the AP reports tonight that Tim Walz outraised Gil Gutknecht in the period Oct. 1 through Oct 18, $110,000 to $88,000.  Gutknecht still leads $305,000 to $179,000 in cash on hand, but that margin has been cut to less than 2-to-1.

Contribute directly to the Walz campaign or via the ActBlue Netroots Candidate page to cut that margin even more.

Some campaign events for next week:

Monday: U.S. Congressional Candidate Tim Walz and U.S. Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar will join U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) to lead a “Get Out the Vote” (GOTV) rally

Monday, October 30th, 2006 at 5:00 PM.
Mayo Civic Center Auditorium
30 Civic Center Drive S.E.
Rochester, MN

Wednesday: U.S. Senator John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) will join Congressional Candidate Tim Walz for a GOTV rally in Mankato on Wednesday, November 1st, 2006 at noon.   Kerry is campaigning across the country for Walz and other “Fighting Dems.”

Doors open at 11am
Music with Martin Zellar begins at 11:15am
Rally begins at noon
Bresnan Arena in the Taylor Center
Minnesota State University-Mankato
Corner of Warren and Stadium Road
Mankato,MN

Thursday: Minnesota radio superstar Garrison Keillor and musician Martin Zellar will join DFL Congressional Candidate Tim Walz, DFL Candidates Mike Hatch, Lori Swanson, Mark Ritchie and Rebecca Otto for a GOTV rally

Thursday, November 2nd, 2006 at 5pm.   
Music begins at 5pm
Rally begins at 5:30pm
Rochester Art Center
40 Civic Center Drive SE
Rochester, MN

NPR: Poll Shows Rural Voters Shifting to Democrats

Recent polling in rural America shows a shift from red to blue in the heartland according to Poll Shows Rural Voters Shifting to Democrats: 

Twelve days before the midterm elections, Republican congressional incumbents are struggling to corral a key voter group -- rural residents. A new bipartisan poll indicates that Democrats now dominate rural voters, a critical part of the Republican base.

The poll was conducted for the non-partisan Center for Rural Strategies, a Kentucky group working to attract attention to rural issues.

Five hundred likely rural voters were surveyed in 41 heavily contested congressional districts and six states with close Senate races. Most of the House districts surveyed have Republican incumbents. Fifty-two per cent of the respondents indicate they'll vote for Democratic congressional candidates; 39 percent say they'll support Republicans.

This is a dramatic shift from a similar poll conducted last month. At that time, the rural voters polled split the congressional vote evenly.

"This is not encouraging information for Republicans," says Bill Greener, the Republican political consultant who supervised and analyzed the bipartisan poll. "And I think that to pretend otherwise is not helpful."

A Less Enthusiastic GOP Base

Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg conducted the telephone survey Sunday through Tuesday of this week.

"Rural voters tend to be a core electorate for Republicans and they need their base voters to turn out and turn out big for them if they are going to stay in this race," Greenberg says.

She notes that the poll found Democrats more enthusiastic about supporting their candidates. 

"The fact that rural voters are trending Democrat and we're seeing less enthusiasm among Republicans in rural areas is not good news for Republicans."

The survey detected an eight-point shift in party preference for Senate candidates. Rural voters in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota and Tennessee indicated they favored Democratic candidates 47 percent to 43 percent. That reverses the results in a similar poll last month. [there's more]

Star Tribune: VoteVets ad called "grenade"

The Strib reports on the VoteVets ad in "New First District TV ad brings Iraq vet into the fray":

A grenade in the form of a new TV ad was rolled into the competitive First Congressional District race Thursday.

The ad shows an Iraq war veteran speaking: "When I got home, I found out Republican Congressman Gil Gutknecht voted to increase his pay while voting to cut health care benefits for veterans like me.

"That may make sense from where he sits in Congress, but not from where I'm sitting," says the veteran, Tomas Young of Kansas City, Mo. The camera pulls back to show him sitting in a wheelchair.

The ad makes points raised earlier by Gutknecht's Democratic challenger, Mankato teacher and National Guard veteran Tim Walz, but was produced by an independent political action committee based in New York, VoteVets.org. The organization based its accusation on two Democratic amendments Gutknecht voted against on March 17, 2005, that would have increased the budget of the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Gutknecht spokesman Bryan Anderson said the annual budget for veterans' medical care has doubled, with Gutknecht's support, since he first went to Congress in 1994.

Both parties are parachuting star power into the southern Minnesota district. First Lady Laura Bush stumped for Gutknecht Wednesday and Arizona Sen. John McCain is tentatively scheduled to do so next week. Democratic Sens. John Kerry and Barack Obama plan to hold rallies for Walz.

What's Gutknecht's record on veterans' issues? Minnesota Monitor took a look.

Here's the ad again:

New Tim Walz Ad: "3000" ; New Roll Call article

The latest Tim Walz ad, "3000" is up at YouTube:

OLLIE OX UPDATE: Word has just come in that the St. Peter Herald has endorsed Tim Walz.

ROLL CALL: RESOURCES CONVERGE ON GUTKNECHT SEAT
A new Roll Call article tells the expense of campaigns for a congressional seat newly in play:

Resources Converge on Gutknecht Seat October 26, 2006 By Matthew Murray, Roll Call Staff Campaign money from the rest of the country continued to pour into Minnesota's 1st district Wednesday, feeding a cash burn that shows no sign of subsiding in the final days of an emblematic House contest.

"The playing field for Democrats has definitely widened in recent weeks," said one Democrat familiar with the spending plans of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The race between six-term Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.) and Democratic challenger Tim Walz, a high school geography teacher, "is a prime example how the field has expanded for Democrats."

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, labor unions and other groups have dumped more than $500,000 on direct mail and broadcast advertising into the district in recent weeks, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Though it was once considered a solid Republican seat, the Walz-Gutknecht race was destined to have a turnaround, analysts said. Although Gutknecht won with healthy margins in 2002 and 2004, President Bush carried the district twice by narrow margins. With independents garnering 6 percent of the vote in 2000, Bush beat former Vice President Al Gore with 49 percent of the vote.

Lynn Wilson, chairwoman of the Olmsted County, Minn., Democratic- Farmer-Labor Party, said the groundwork for defeating Gutknecht began 10 years ago. Gutknecht, then in his first term, eked out a win against Mary Rieder (D), a local university professor. He faced Rieder again in 2000, trouncing her by nearly 15 percentage points.

But Walz has played political small-ball since he announced his candidacy in February and his popularity with voters has grown, Wilson said. Combined with a dislike for how the war in Iraq is proceeding, "it's perfect timing." The potential for supporting a Democrat in the 1st district has "always been here," Wilson said. "It just had to be worked."

Wilson said the president's unpopularity in the region was apparent Wednesday with the GOP's choice of fundraisers: first lady Laura Bush. "She was chosen because her favorable rating doubles her husband's," she said.

Walz appears to have benefited the most financially from the recent national spotlight pointed at the race. Although individual fundraising totals are current only as of Sept. 30, independent expenditures reported to the Federal Election Commission by party committees and other outside organizations are updated daily.

Since Oct. 13, the Service Employees International Union has spent about $45,000 on direct mail and radio and television spots supporting Walz. On Oct. 23, the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees spent more than $200,000 on television advertising opposing Gutknecht. During the past week, the DCCC has spent about $150,000 on ads opposing Gutknecht.

The NRCC has spent more than $150,000 on ads and phone banks for Gutknecht. The National Right to Life political action committee spent more than $3,000 on radio ads for Gutknecht.

Walz's campaign also confirmed that on Wednesday the Democrat was included in a mass appeal by former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Sponsored by MoveOn.org, the e-mail asked for support for roughly 10 candidates. By late Wednesday, the group claimed to have raised about $1.3 million, but it declined to indicate how much was raised specifically for Walz.

Walz - a retired National Guardsman who is a graduate of the liberal "Camp Wellstone" political training program, named in honor of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.) - had about $290,000 on hand through Sept. 30. Gutknecht had about $800,000.

While Democrats are enjoying a boost in the 1st district, GOP strategists said the incumbent has a few aces in its pocket: illegal immigration and the economy, both of which resonate in the district.

Although the NRCC declined to discuss campaign strategy, it appeared likely
that the two issues will figure prominently in the waning hours of the Gutknecht re-election campaign.

"Tim Walz is being defined as someone who wants to raise taxes and make amnesty [for illegal immigrants] the law of the land," said Ed Patru, a spokesman for the NRCC. "That message is being driven home, and it's a message that moves numbers."

Tim Walz's immigration plan is found here.  It does not include amnesty, but rather asks undocumented immigrants to return to their home countries and apply for legal status. 

Want the truth to be told? Volunteer and contribute.

Walz to students: Why you should care

While Gil Gutknecht was hobnobbing with Laura Bush and other Republicans, Tim Walz was worknig a tougher crowd on Wednesday: high school students.  The Mankato Free Press reports:

While first lady Laura Bush was busy campaigning for Gil Gutknecht in Rochester Wednesday, Tim Walz spent most of the morning talking to Maple River High School students.

Most of whom can’t vote.

“I’m not here to convince you to vote for me,” he said. “... (I’m) here to tell you why you should care.”

While the Walz stop was rather surprising given the time element, perhaps the more interesting fact is he isn’t the only area candidate who has made a pit stop at Maple River High School.

State House candidates Tony Cornish and Jim Peterson, state Senate candidate Julie Rosen and now U.S. House candidate Walz have all chatted with classes at the high school of about 430 students.

Maple River is still waiting on confirmation from Gutknecht and Rosen’s opponent Dave Wertjes, but Principal Dan Anderson said there is a good chance both will swing by before the election — meaning students would get a chance to hear from opposing candidates in three key area races.

“It’s a great opportunity to learn about how the system works,” Anderson said. “You look at the amount of 18- to 25 year-olds that vote, and it’s not a very good percentage.”

Besides getting students interested in voting, the visits give them a true taste of the democratic process.

And when the politicians/candidates come, students are expected to be prepared. Before each visit, they’re given a list of topics and asked to construct a question and ask candidates.

Which is exactly what happened Wednesday. After Walz gave a brief introduction, students quizzed him about topics including college tuition, the Iraq war, Social Security and campaign advertisements.

Maple River social studies teacher and Mapleton Mayor Jim Swanson has been instrumental to getting the politicians to come to the town and talk, Anderson said.

“He’s very good about getting both sides in,” Anderson said. “(Students) think it’s pretty neat that they’re here.”

Twelfth-grader Brad Caldwell is one of them.

Unlike most of his of classmates, Caldwell recently turned 18, so he’ll be casting a vote Nov. 7. Although he already has opinions about each candidate and certain issues, it certainly helps to hear their views firsthand, he said.

“It helps to get to know (candidates),” Caldwell said. “It’s nice to know they pay attention to us.”

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTE: WALZ WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RETURNING SOLDIERS Ruth Harvey of St. Peter shares her experience during Max Cleland's visit:

I just attended an event for First District U.S. Congressional candidate Tim Walz in which former Senator Max Cleland, head of the VA under President Carter, spoke in support of Walz.

My husband, as well as his dad and uncles, my brother, my father and my uncles all served their country in the military. Walz himself and Cleland have also served with honor in the military. Their position is that the troops now serving be treated fairly, whether they are National Guard, Reserves or regular military. This rings true coming from Walz and Cleland. It is not something the current administration or Republican Congress honors. The troops and families of troops that are now being wounded or killed are paying a huge price, without the necessary help from the VA, because this Congress and White House have underfunded and voted against these essential programs.

For what is spent in one month in Iraq, the VA could be put back on track and our returning troops could be given the help they need to return to their jobs, families and lives. I myself have issues with the war in Iraq, but I have always felt that “support our troops” should mean support not only while they serve, but once they come home, too. Walz is the guy who will make that happen.

10/26/06 FOX NEWS POLL: DEMOCRATS PREFERRED ON MOST ISSUES
Gil Gutknecht may have told a Republican audience in Rochester that their party will pick up seats in November's election, but the preferred news source for conservatives doesn't support his set of facts:

NEW YORK  —  Less than two weeks before Election Day, Democrats hold a double-digit lead over Republicans among likely voters in the Congressional election — not surprising, as Democrats are seen as the party that can do a better job on almost all of the top issues facing the country today, according to a new FOX News poll. Republicans still have the advantage on one of their traditional strengths — handling the issue of terrorism, although

President George W. Bush’s job rating is essentially unchanged this week: 40 percent of voters say they approve of the job Bush is doing and 53 percent disapprove. And the vote for Congress looks similar to those numbers — in reverse.

Today Democrats have an 11-percentage point advantage in the Congressional election (49-38 percent), up from a 9-point edge over Republicans two weeks ago.

Almost all Democrats would vote for their party’s candidate (92 percent), and most Republicans would vote Republican (85 percent). Independents are more likely to back the Democrat in their district by 14 points (43 percent to 29 percent).

About one in 10 voters who backed President Bush in the 2004 election (11 percent) say they will support the Democratic candidate in their district — by comparison, 6 percent of those who voted for Kerry say they will vote for the Republican.

Fox also looks at targeting voters in the First. They report; you decide.

MORE NETROOTS
Minnesota Monitor has posted a issue-by-issue comparison of Walz and Gutknecht's positions.

The Blue Catablog putsthe Fighting First on a list of smart places to contribute:

7) Tim Walz (MN-1): This Army National Guard veteran and High School coach and teacher just got the endorsement of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune over incumbent Gil Gutknecht, who the paper had endorsed two years ago. In a seat that also was thought to be safe GOP. Tim has accomplished all this by raising under $1 million, so you know that his campaign uses its funds wisely.

The Wege puts the First Lady's visit in context of an unpopular war and its consequences for the troops.

Associated Press: Obama to stump for Klobuchar, Walz

Today's Post Bulletin first reported that  Barack Obama will be in Rochester on Monday--there's now a time and a place--and Tim Walz too--according to the Associated Press:

Associated Press

ROCHESTER, Minn. - A rising star in the Democratic Party will be in Rochester next week.

The Olmsted County D-F-L confirms that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (buh-RAHK' oh-BAH'-muh) will stop at a political rally Monday to support Democratic Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar and congressional candidate Tim Walz.

The rally will be held at the Mayo Civic Center Auditorium. Doors open at 4:30, with the rally beginning at five p.m..

The event is open to the public.

Obama has been touring the country promoting his book, "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream."

Obama recently was interviewed on N-B-C's "Meet the Press," where he told Tim Russert he's considering a presidential run in 2008.

MN-01 morning papers: letters (and Obama on his way)

WORTHINGTON DAILY GLOBE LTE: EX-GUTKNECHT SUPPORTER REMEMBERS TERM LIMIT PROMISE
North Mankato's Richard McCluhan remembers a visit from Gil Gutknecht twelve years ago:

I am truly surprised at the political spin that Gil Gutknecht is putting on his record in Congress and the negative campaigning that he is engaged in this election season. This is a man who sat in my office 12 years ago and told me how much he embraced the highly touted contract with America.
As I willingly got my checkbook out, Gil went on and on about how things would be different once we had a Republican majority in Congress. He would always be one to take the moral high road, and you could count on him to campaign on the issues. Well, it’s been 12 years, Gil, and I’m still waiting.

Remember how you were going to introduce legislation embracing term limits, providing a line item veto, balancing the budget, reforming campaign financing, fixing social security, limiting special interest money in campaigns and so on? Then, to top it all off, you and the Republican majority were going to raise the moral bar. Well, it’s been 12 years, Gil, and I’m still waiting.

In fact, didn’t you promise that you were only going to serve 12 years at the most as a self-imposed term limit? Well, I suppose I really shouldn’t be surprised that you didn’t keep that particular promise, as you haven’t kept any of your other promises.

This election season I met candidate Tim Walz. Tim spoke of many of the same things that you did 12 years ago, and I am supporting his candidacy this year. It’s been 12 years, Gil, and quite simply, I’m tired of waiting.

WINONA DAILY NEWS LTES
People in Winona love to write letters to the editor. Today's paper includes a choice selection of missives about the Walz-Gutknecht contest.

First up are two letters questioning why Gutknecht insisted on a closed debate at St. Mary's University. Adam Frederickson asks Why is Gil afraid?:

People of Winona weren’t let in to see the debate between Gil Gutknecht and Tim Walz in Winona for U.S. Congress.

Gutknecht insisted the debate be closed to the general public. Why? Maybe he’s afraid to face the public? Maybe he is embarrassed to be part of the Bush-Congress bunch that has gotten us into the mess in Iraq? Or, maybe it’s the huge debt they’ve gotten us into?

Gutknecht refused to allow public in, writes Jim Gurley. Gurley compares Gutknecht's exclusionary behavior to that at the 2004 Bush rally in Mankato, where two of Tim Walz's students were thrown out:

Gil Gutknecht and Tim Walz debated in Winona recently. Walz wanted an open debate, but Gutknecht refused to allow the public in. We were told to listen to it later on radio.

This is an outrage!

We, Gutknecht’s constituents, are about to cast a very important vote. Part of that decision is to see both men debate the issues, to look each man in the eye. We can’t get that from a radio recording. This is the one time Winonans could see them debate, and Gutknecht excluded us. Maybe Gutknecht learned this technique from George W. Bush, his close ally. Bush in 2004 refused to let Tim Walz and his students into a Bush rally in Mankato, just after Walz had returned from active duty in support of the war in Afghanistan. Well, Tim was displeased and angered, of course, at the arrogance of the Bush-Gutknecht crowd, and he decided to do something. And likewise, we’re going to do something, because we deserve access.

I’ve got news for Gutknecht: He will be the one excluded next year — from access to the Capitol in Washington.

Craig Brooks says that Gutknecht doesn’t read his mail:

I have often written to Congressman Gil Gutknecht during the past 12 years. Every single time I get a form letter from his office that has absolutely nothing to do with what I wrote about. When I write back to clarify, I don’t get a response.

I plan to vote Nov. 7 for a man who will care about what I have to say and who will respond to the topic rather than with a form letter du jour. I will vote for Tim Walz.

Pat Moline believes that 12 years are enough:

Message to Gil Gutknecht: Gil, you’ve had 12 years in Congress. Why aren’t you telling us about your accomplishments instead of running false and negative ads about Tim Walz? Do you have nothing to offer other than attacks on your opponent?

I think 12 years is enough. Now we need to let Tim Walz tackle the tough issues to get this country turned around. Vote for Tim Walz for Congress

St. Peter's Peter Westre explains why he wants Send Walz to Washington:

I am writing to encourage voters to vote for a change in Washington this fall. Gil Gutknecht claims to be “our congressman.”

The reality is that in 12 years he has not been an effective voice for the interests of all Minnesotans. He has zero legislative accomplishments on national policy that affects the lives of citizens in his district. (His drug reimportation bill went nowhere.)

Tim Walz presents a clear alternative. A vote for Tim will represent a vote for a man who has spent his adult life representing core values of loyalty, duty, respect, selfless service, honor, integrity and personal courage through personal service in the military and as a teacher of young people. It is time to send a man of real accomplishment to Washington to represent our interests.

The Winona Daily News picks up the AP story on Laura Bush's visit to Rochester.

MANKATO FREE PRESS LTE: DM & E LOAN WAS SNEAKY
D. G. Fettes wants taxpayer-backed loans to be debately freely:

The DM&E Railroad loan was a sneaky political trick by a former lobbyist. He couldn’t do this alone, others had to have known and helped him. A number of our representatives, I’m sure, knew about this provision hidden in the transportation bill.

This is a $2.3 billion loan requested by a private company approximately 23 times smaller than the loan. In 2003, the DM&E received a $233 million dollar loan which is still outstanding. It is unlikely any or either will ever be repaid.

The question is, “Do we want our representatives supporting a loan that was made without a public hearing or debated in Congress?”

This isn’t the way to do government business or represent the taxpayers in our state or the United States.

Under the circumstances surrounding the loan application, it should not be approved.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN: OBAMA TO CAMPAIGN FOR KLOBUCHAR ON MONDAY
The Post Bulletin reports:

The hottest thing in politics, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, is scheduled to be in Rochester on Monday for a political rally in support of DFL Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar.

The rally will be at 3 p.m.; place TBA.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN: POLL CITES GROWING OBJECTIONS TO DM & E
Jeffrey Pieters reports on the findings of a poll commissioned by the Rochester Coalition. The story concludes with the poll's findings on the potential impact of the issue on voting:

All of the respondents said they were registered voters, and 53 percent of them across the 1st District said the DM&E issue would be important to them as they choose who to vote for in the congressional race between incumbent Rep. Gil Gutknecht, a Republican, and his Democratic challenger Tim Walz.

That consideration apparently weighs heavier in Olmsted County, where about three-quarters said they'll consider Gutknecht's and Walz's positions on the DM&E as they choose between them.

The preferred position?

Opposition, according to the poll. By a ratio of 3-to-1, respondents said they'd be less likely rather than more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who supports the project. The percentages ran 56-17 in Olmsted County, and 49-15 in the 1st District overall. Significant portions responded that the matter made no difference to them, they didn't know or they refused to answer the question.

Results of the survey were sent to Gutknecht's and Walz's offices, along with other media recipients, on Wednesday and Thursday, according to a Rochester Coalition spokesman.

From August to October, poll respondents' awareness of the DM&E issue grew slightly, though by an amount perhaps insignificant given the poll's error margin. In Olmsted County, 70 percent in August and 73 percent in October said they had seen or heard "a lot" or "some" news reports about the train issue.

That same level of public awareness was essentially unchanged across the 1st District, registering at 58 percent both times the poll was conducted.

ROCHESTER POST-BULLETIN LTES
Andy Toft from Bryan reminds readers of Gutknecht's promises in the Contract for America:

In 1994, Gil Gutknecht signed onto the Contract with America. Here is what we have seen with a couple of major parts of the contract.

One major part was the Fiscal Responsibility Act. This was to be an amendment to the Constitution to require a balanced budget. Our budget is a bust and no one seems to care. Is this what is called fiscally conservative when the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and we say good-bye to the middle working class.

Another major part was the Citizen Legislature Act ,which would have imposed 12-year term limits on members of Congress. Must have been a good idea at the time, but now it's 12 years later and Gutknecht must like the pay, the health care and the retirement more than the belief that legislators are ineffective after 12 years.

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely." I learned this in my high school history class and does it ever hold true. The Republicans have control of all three branches of government and we have seen nothing but a culture of corruption.

Time for change. Working people need to vote for Tim Walz and the Democrats.

Mail carrier Gerald Stolp delivers The facts on Gutknecht's pay vote:

I agree with Mike Varley that the voters should learn the facts, but not necessarily Varley's "facts."

Since Republicans have controlled both the House and Senate for the past six years, if Gil Gutknecht and his party truly wanted to raise the minimum wage, it would have been raised! How come it hasn't been? Because the party doesn't want it raised, and it makes no difference whether Gutknecht votes at all.

I worked as a mail carrier and I don't remember ever getting a pay raise this easily, so I did a little checking on the Internet. Congress established its own pay raise system. The only way this system can be stopped is if members vote not to accept the raise. Rep. Jim Matheson of Utah offered such a motion. The motion was defeated, as was expected. Gutknecht voted to defeat the motion.

Joe Mayer writes Gutknecht out of touch:

As terrible as President Bush's approval ratings appear, they actually look good when compared to the ratings for Congress.

For most of the past year when approval ratings of Congress have been low, we still re-elect "our" congressperson over 90 percent of the time. Somehow, our representative is not part of the problem.

Rep. Gil Gutknecht gave congressional control of war over to the president, he voted that not we, but our children and grandchildren will pay for this war.

He's silent on torture but voted to grant that power to the executive branch in violation of international law, he voted to allow our government to spy on its citizens, and he campaigns, not on these, but on issues designed to keep American citizens in fear.

The widening of the economic divide in the United States is not the result of the "market economy" alone, but of government laws favoring money over people.

Most of Gutknecht's votes in the economic area have resulted in the economic exclusion of working people, the elderly, students, and the poor. As the GOP current election slogan says "Gil is out of touch with Minnesotans."

Is the trend his friend?: Gutknecht predicts GOP will pick up seats

Bob Von Sternberg and Eric Black covered yesterday's appearances in Minnesota by Laura Bush in "First Lady comes to bolster state GOP in speedy swing."  It's an incredibly upbeat piece.

Gil Gutknecht predicts that the Republican Party will pick up seats in November's election:

Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Tim Walz, introduced Bush.

"As they say on Wall Street, the trend is your friend," he said, referring to national generic congressional polls that have recently showed Democrats' anticipated big majorities shrinking. "One I saw yesterday showed they were only four up. If we're only four down on election day, I've got news for you: We're going to gain seats. Everything's going our way."

How in touch with the pulse of the nation is that? 

Since we don't have the Strib's D.J. Tice as our editor, we went looking for those national generic congressional polls that have emboldened Representative Gutknecht.

Wednesday's Political Wire at US News & World Report included this item:

In a new research paper cited on Political Wire, three political scientists from Dartmouth, Columbia, and Temple attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections. The report says that "via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome." Their final analysis forecasts the Democrats gaining 32 seats in the House and "Democratic control (18 seats or more) a near certainty."

At MSNBC yesterday, political forecaster Charles Cook assessed the situation:

Another week has gone by and little has changed. The Republican Party still seems to be headed toward a very tough election.

In the House, Republicans are most likely to see a net loss of 20 to 35 seats, and with it their majority. In the Senate, the GOP could lose at least four, but a five- or six-seat loss is more likely. A six-seat change tips the chamber into Democratic hands.

Could the situation change? Could the trajectory of this election be altered if the spotlight shifts from Iraq, congressional scandals, budget deficits, Hurricane Katrina, Terri Schiavo, stem-cell research and immigration onto something else, like terrorism or national security? Of course it could. In the time it takes to read this article, something could happen. A confrontation at sea involving a freighter going into or coming out of North Korea, for example, could dominate the news and the public consciousness. But unless something of that magnitude happens, we have to go with the situation as it stands.

While some stick to the assumption that this is a normal political environment, that this election is an "all politics is local" election like 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004, they do so in the face of an enormous amount of polling data that demonstrates a horrendous political climate -- the kind that one sees periodically in midterm elections like 1958, 1966, 1974 and 1994, and even occasionally in presidential election years like 1932, 1964 and 1980.

Since 1994 is the most recent of these "wave" elections, when all politics is hardly local, compare the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted October 13-16 among 1,006 registered voters nationwide, with the comparable NBC/WSJ poll from October 1994. President Bill Clinton and the Democrats were in the hot seat, headed toward a 52-seat loss in the House and an eight-seat Senate defeat.

In the October 1994 NBC/WSJ poll, 39 percent of voters thought the country was headed in the right direction, compared with 48 percent who said it was on the wrong track -- a nine-point lead for wrong track. In the recent poll, just 26 percent said right direction and 61 percent said wrong track; a net difference of 35 points, significantly worse than 1994.

The October 1994 poll gave Clinton a job approval rating of 48 percent and a disapproval rating of 43 percent, a five-point difference. This month, just 38 percent approved of President Bush's performance compared to 57 percent who disapproved, a net disapproval of 19 points. Again, it's significantly worse than 1994.

In the poll taken 12 years ago, 24 percent approved of the job Congress was doing and 67 percent disapproved, a net disapproval of 43 points. In last week's poll, just 16 percent approved of Congress and a whopping 75 percent disapproved, a 59-point net disapproval.

USA TODAY does report a change in its latest polling, but it's still far short of GOP pickup:

The latest USA TODAY/Gallup national poll, taken over the weekend, shows that:

•Thirty-eight percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S. House of Representatives member from their district does not deserve re-election. That number has never been higher. Two weeks ago it stood at 33%.

•Asked what will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, 43% of likely voters said "national issues" — also the highest that figure has reached.

•On the generic question of whether they favor the Democrat or Republican candidate in their district, 54% of likely voters chose the Democrat and 41% the Republican.

That 13 percentage-point gap is well below the 23-point advantage Democrats held in the previous poll, but matches the advantage that Republicans held with two weeks to go before the landmark 1994 election when they swept control of Congress.

Gutknecht may believe in trends that are his friends; fortunately, the Mayo Clinic is nearby to offer help.

BLOOMBERG: AD TSUNAMI IN MN-01
One national trend reflected in the First is for national political parties to dump money into media buys on local television stations, according to Bloomberg:

Local television stations around the U.S. are reaping record revenue from a blitz of political advertising in the waning days of the midterm congressional elections.   

Spending on political advertising at local stations, previously estimated to hit $1.4 billion, will exceed that amount ``with lead-pipe certainty,'' said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks campaign finance. He now predicts a record $2 billion in spending this year, $300 million more than in 2004, when there were both congressional and presidential elections.   

``It's a tsunami, frankly,'' said Jerry Watson, vice president and general manager at NBC affiliate KTTC-TV in Rochester, Minnesota.         

[snip]

Minnesota Race

In Minnesota's First District, where Watson's station is located, national organizations including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have spent more than $570,000 since Oct. 1, compared with just $5,000 the month before, according to Federal Election Commission records.   

Money suddenly moved into the rural district after polls showed incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht is barely holding off his Democratic challenger, Tim Walz. According to a Constituent Dynamics poll conducted between Oct. 8 and 10, Gutknecht leads Walz by the statistically insignificant margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.       

Contrary to what a local blog reported last night, no party is abandoning the field of battle in the First. The seat is in play and the stakes are high--volunteer and contribute to the Walz campaign.

Evening read: taxes, farmers, debate files . . .

OWATONNA PEOPLE'S PRESS LTE: WALZ TAX PLAN MAKES SENSE
As we've noted, Gutknecht is attacking Walz on taxes.  Walz's supporters are fighting  back.  Letter writer Becky Schuette of Owatonna is a good example. ( behind a subscription firewall--the editor wants permission to run any length of quote from the OPP, so we're revising here; contact the OPP for the actual text of the letter)

ST. MARY'S DEBATE: AUDIO FILE
The Minnesota Broadcasters Association audio file of the 30 minute debate at St. Mary'sUniversity is available for download here.

POLINAUT: NPR TO THE FIRST
Bob Collins writes that National Public Radio is coming to cover the First:

National Public Radio is sending its political reporters to Minnesota next week.

Looks like they'll be concentrating on the 1st District race. "We want to know how much the war is affecting their votes… and we want to understand what's making a district that has been a sure bet for Republican Gil Gutknecht into a tight race. His opponent, Tim Walz, is one of the "fighting Dems"; we think that's gotta be part of it. We are hoping to gain some insight in the 1st District into national trends that seem to be giving Dems such a boost," a memo says.

Look for a segment on the national All Things Considered next Friday.

AP: THE POWER OF INCUMBENCY
Not everyone is getting that close to the ground. Ben Feller phones one in about incumbency campaigning:

Those in power love to dole out grants at election time. With Republican control of Congress at risk, the Bush administration is busily using the perks of incumbency to help allies from Ohio to California.

The formula: Cabinet luminaries travel to competitive districts and hand out money while local candidates bask in media coverage.

"Democrats did it. Republicans are doing it. The Whigs and the Federalists probably did it as well. It's a very old tradition," said John Fortier, a research fellow who studies politics and elections at the American Enterprise Institute.

So that's what Gutknecht was up to:

Elsewhere in the Cabinet, Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, has traveled the south and the Midwest to help out Republican candidates.

Johanns appeared Tuesday at an ethanol seminar with Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is tied with or trailing Democrat Mike Hatch in polls. Then he appeared at campaign events with Senate candidate Mark Kennedy and Rep. Gil Gutknecht, whose races are viewed as competitive.

Poor Gil: rather than basking in media coverage generated by Johanns' visit,  he got a strong dose of Tim Walz in the Mankato Free Press, explaining what Democratic victories will mean to Minnesota's farmers:

Democratic challenger Tim Walz, whose aggressive campaign has made the 1st District race close enough to attract national Republican campaigners such as Johanns, agrees that the current farm policy is basically a good one. Walz, a Mankato school teacher, also agrees that farmers should vote strategically on Nov. 7.

Electing the 15 additional Democrats needed to make the Democrats the majority party in the House will put Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson in the chairmanship of the House Agriculture Committee, Walz said. He would replace Virginia Republican Bob Goodlatte as chairman.

“To move the agriculture committee chair out of the south and into the heartland, there’s no doubt” that would be good news for Midwestern farmers and the subsidy programs that help them, he said.

Walz, along with many political analysts, is predicting that Democrats will take control of the House in this year’s mid-term election. That would put Gutknecht in the minority, a position where his seniority will bring less influence — less influence than Walz said he would have as a member of the majority Democrats on the committee.

MINNESOTA MONITOR/VOX VERAX: VOTE VETS AD
Leigh Pomeroy takes a look at the Vote Vets Ad.  Scroll down our page to view the ad before you click over to read the analysis.

We'll have more netroots when Blogger fixes itself; some blogspot sites covering the 1st are turning up in searches, but aren't accessible.

Associated Press: "Big stakes - big stakes"

Backbencher Gil Gutknecht, who supported White House initiatives 94% of the time this year, , is in a hard fight, according to the AP wire:

Martiga Lohn
Associated Press

ROCHESTER, Minn.U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht, always a friendly man, greeted his supporters in this southeastern Minnesota city with special warmth.

"Thanks for coming out. God bless you all," the Republican said as he shook hands with several dozen people after a rally. "This is going to be a big election. Big stakes - big stakes."

First lady Laura Bush's presence at Wednesday's rally underscored just how large the stakes have grown for Gutknecht, a 12-year incumbent who has rarely needed big-name help in a reliably GOP district.

But Gutknecht hasn't been immune to the same troubles that have weighted Republicans elsewhere, including President Bush's low popularity and the violence in Iraq. And this time around, he faces an unexpectedly intense challenge from Democrat Tim Walz, a high school teacher and Army National Guard veteran.

"The fact that he's in a competitive race shows what an exceptional year this is," said Dan Hofrenning, a political scientist at St. Olaf College in Northfield.

Bush, who also campaigned Wednesday in the Twin Cities for GOP House candidate Michele Bachmann, touted Gutknecht in her Rochester stop as a "champion" of U.S. troops. She also said he would help farmers and boost the rural economy by pushing for renewable fuels such as ethanol.

To Walz, the first lady's visit was a sign of how seriously Republicans take him.

"Bringing her here was a great deal," he said. "It's going to get me on Fox News."

It was another watershed year in politics - 1994 - when Gutknecht latched onto Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" in his first run for Congress. He pushed for a balanced budget, cuts to sacrosanct social programs such as Medicare, and term limits. Gutknecht won that race decisively, entering the House with 72 other conservatives as part of Gingrich's Republican revolution. The GOP took control for the first time in 40 years.

"This is like the fall of the Berlin Wall," Gutknecht told a reporter as he took office in 1995. "It will be harder for future Congresses to go back."

Even in a group of GOP newcomers that included pop star Sonny Bono, the personable real estate auctioneer from Rochester - a man friends say does spot-on impersonations of W.C. Fields and Marlon Brando - stood out. He led a floor debate on his first day, and a CNN crew shadowed him as the face of the new order.

"That was a heady year," said Ellen Youngers, a family friend who volunteered on Gutknecht's 1994 campaign and later worked in his congressional district office.

Over the next 12 years, Gutknecht settled into his role as a fiscal conservative in Washington. But he also went against party leaders on issues such as importing prescription drugs and criticized the Bush administration over the budget deficit. He was the only Minnesota Republican to vote against the Central American Free Trade Agreement last year.

"This is a man who's not always been - certainly in the last several years - the favorite of this White House," said John Wade, who served as Gutknecht's chief of staff in the late 1990s.

Gutknecht supported Bush's initiatives 94 percent of the time this year and 78 percent last year, according to Congressional Quarterly.

He has faced credible challengers over the years, but Walz has come on stronger. Walz has attacked the incumbent for being too close to the president; one TV ad shows President Bush speaking directly into Gutknecht's ear as they shake hands at a rally.

Walz and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have also tried to paint Gutknecht as unsupportive of American soldiers, with TV ads saying he voted against giving them bonuses and extending their health care benefits.

The National Republican Congressional Committee and Gutknecht are hitting Walz with TV ads that claim he would raise taxes and allow billions in government benefits for illegal immigrants. Walz spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery said the ads are inaccurate.

At Wednesday's rally, local GOP leader Terri Penz sadly acknowledged that Gutknecht is facing his toughest challenge yet.

"I just think they are more energized this year than maybe in previous years," Penz said.

Walz is starting to sound a lot like a certain upstart state legislator from Rochester who pushed to overturn the status quo a dozen years ago.

"I'm talking about an ineffective Congress that is not living up to its promises," he said. "The anger and frustration have turned into optimism for change."

Walz to farmers: Vote strategically on November 7

The Mankato Free Press reports that Gutknecht shipped in USDA head Mike Johanns to do a little campaigning in Mankato:

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns made a campaign stop in Mankato on behalf of Congressman Gil Gutknecht Tuesday, asking farm country voters to remember on Nov. 7 that times are good for farmers.

[snip]

Gutknecht, a Rochester Republican seeking his seventh term in Congress, noted that he has rising seniority on the House Agriculture Committee and is chairman of a subcommittee that has influence on renewable energy and other rural issues. That’s important in south-central Minnesota.

“If you draw a 200-mile radius around Mankato, Minnesota, it really is the center of what is happening with renewable energy in the whole United States,” Gutknecht said.

With Congress set to begin writing a new multi-year farm bill next year, Johanns suggested farmers should vote pragmatically in two weeks and elect a tenured congressman such as Gutknecht.

“You desperately need somebody who can make the case in the committee (for southern Minnesota’s interests),” Johanns said. “You also need the person who can make the case on the House floor.”

Tim Walz seizes their thunder by asking that farmers think strategically about the impact of their votes:

Democratic challenger Tim Walz, whose aggressive campaign has made the 1st District race close enough to attract national Republican campaigners such as Johanns, agrees that the current farm policy is basically a good one. Walz, a Mankato school teacher, also agrees that farmers should vote strategically on Nov. 7.

Electing the 15 additional Democrats needed to make the Democrats the majority party in the House will put Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson in the chairmanship of the House Agriculture Committee, Walz said. He would replace Virginia Republican Bob Goodlatte as chairman.

“To move the agriculture committee chair out of the south and into the heartland, there’s no doubt” that would be good news for Midwestern farmers and the subsidy programs that help them, he said.

Walz, along with many political analysts, is predicting that Democrats will take control of the House in this year’s mid-term election. That would put Gutknecht in the minority, a position where his seniority will bring less influence — less influence than Walz said he would have as a member of the majority Democrats on the committee.

And Walz said he will be on the committee.

“Collin Peterson has guaranteed me a spot on the agriculture committee, and he’ll announce that in the next few days in Mankato,” Walz said.

But Johanns and Gutknecht said farmers should think about more than who runs the ag committee when considering whether to elect Democrats. Both said that Democratic control of the House would bring chairmen and chairwomen that would push to raise taxes.

“There’s the whole package there that, quite honestly, just worries the living daylights out of me,” Johanns said.

Walz said Americans, including farmers, are ready for change in Washington — change in the Iraq war strategy, health care policy and deficit spending.

Republicans are reduced to using scare tactics on voters such as false suggestions of middle-class tax increases, he said.

Under his tax proposals, farmers and other Minnesotans making less than $330,000 a year would benefit, Walz said.

Farmers in southern Minnesota can decide to take power, rather than be desperately needy.

YouTube VoteVets Ad for MN-01

Via DailyKos, here's the Vote Vets ad that will be playing in the Fighting First:

MN-01 Netroots review: What's eating Gil Gutknecht?

MINNESOTA MONITOR/VOX VERAX: ATTACK ADS SIGNAL THREAT
Leigh Pomeroy looks at development in the First at Minnesota Monitor and Vox Verax.  He assesses GOP tactics:

One of the key indicators that shows how seriously Gutknecht is finally taking the Walz challenge is his — and the national GOP's — reliance upon vicious attack ads using mailers, radio and TV. The Gutknecht-GOP barrage against Walz has dealt primarily with the issues of immigration and taxes.

EVIL BOBBY: DIRTY TRICKS AND RUMORS THEREOF
Voters in the First have been receiving mailings attacking Tim Walz on taxes and immigration. Evil Bobby's got copies of the mailings and a write up.

ORANGE PENNY LOAFERS: INEPT AND INEFFECTUAL
Mr. Barrett tells readers what he really thinks about Gil Gutknecht:

Thrice today has MPR pissed me off, though not intentionally. It's through interviews with a trio of mealy-mouthed weasels: Karl Rove, Rick Santorum, and Gil Gutknecht.

[snip]

Lastly, Gilly boy:

"This election in this district is incredibly important and it's proven to be much tougher than I would have thought six months ago," Gutknecht says. "In fact, it's tougher than I thought it would be two weeks ago."

Either Gil has had blinders on this whole time, or he's been ignoring it, or he's just an idiot. By his account, Tim Walz was beamed down from a spaceship two weeks ago.

"I have nothing to do with this [the Foley scandal], but you know what?" he asks. "Our numbers really took a tumble and it's been universally true around the country, and it shocks me that we have been punished for something that we have nothing to do with."

Except for the whole thing where the House leadership sat on the information without doing anything, and then started trying to blame the Democrats because it came out at an inconvenient time. And I'll give you 100 to 1 odds that if Foley were a Democrat, Republicans would be jumping on the entire party and not just a few people. Whether or not people like Gutknecht knew before the story broke, they deserve to be punished--not for Mark Foley himself, but for how the issue is being handled, and for not calling more fervently for the House leadership to step down. Gutknecht's absolutely right: he had nothing to do with Foley, and nothing to do with trying to fix the situation.

"I think once they understand, particularly in counties like Winona County and Houston County where people are socially pretty conservative people, I think once they understand where he stands on issues like gay marriage and abortion, I think a lot of those people are going to come home," Gutknecht says.

This one is the coup de gras. Is Gutknecht really so stupid that he thinks enough people are focused entirely on one or two social issues in an election? Yeah, a lot of people care about abortion and gay marriage. Are people going to vote against Tim Walz just because of those two issues? Sure, but not as many who will vote for him for myriad other more important concerns. If these social issues were really that important, this Republican-controlled government would have nailed those down already. They've had six years, but the issues are still on the table. People are starting to realize that the reason is because the Republicans never will do anything about them. They're a party of slick-haired, shiny-smiling promisers who do little more than sit on their hands until an election year comes around. Soon they're going to learn why manipulating voters is not an effective way of staying in power.

MNPUBLIUS: WHO SUPPORTS THE TROOPS AGAIN?
MnPublius takes a look at Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) ratings of Minnesota' congressional delegation. Gil Gutknecht gets a C+.

GOOGLING GIL GUTKNECHT
What a search today turns up.

Rochester Post Bulletin: Thirteen ways of looking at a dark horse

The Rochester Post-Bulletin' s Matt Stolle was the first reporter in a daily newspaper to call the contest in Minnesota's Fighting First a "dogfight."  Today, he reports on  how "Bush visit puts spotlight on Gutknecht-Walz race."  UPDATE: The AP reports that "several hundred" attended the rally.

His article includes the news that  both John Kerry and John McCain will be in Mankato on the same day next week:

There are a couple of ways to look at first lady Laura Bush's appearance at a Republican rally in Rochester this afternoon.

Either national Republican leaders are buying extra insurance for a candidate, U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht, and a district they still see as GOP territory. Or, Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent, is truly in a fight for his political life against DFL challenger Tim Walz, as political analysts say.

Either way, Bush's presence in Rochester, combined with a $100,000 ad purchase by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee on Gutknecht's behalf, underscores how much the political landscape has changed not only for the 1st Congressional District but nationally as well, as the election season enters its final two weeks.

The number of House seats held by Republicans and considered "at risk" have nearly tripled since January, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Then, 18 GOP seats were endangered; now there are 48.

At stake is control of the Republican-led House and Senate, which would swing to the Democrats with a 15-seat gain in the House and six-seat pickup in the Senate.

In the trenches

Political analysts describe the support Gutknecht and GOP incumbents once considered in "safe" or "GOP leaning" seats are getting from the national party as a kind of a "line in the sand" beyond which it is determined to hold back the Democratic Party.

"Republicans saw the problems coming, and they've been building trenches and earthworks and fortifications to try and hold back that blue tide," said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. "They've been doing that for months now. And we'll see how successful those fortifications" are in holding Democrats back.

And who better to do a little spadework than Laura Bush herself, an enormously popular Republican figure, despite the political troubles that surround and beset Republican incumbents these days.

Schier called bringing Bush to Rochester, where she was to be joined by Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Senate candidate Mark Kennedy, a "smart thing to do." Bush is more popular than her husband, and she brings a softer edge.

She is perhaps the perfect Republican calling card for an area that is "not a deep red, socially conservative community."

"She is more likely to get positive coverage than her husband, especially coming to a place like Rochester," Schier added. "Whenever her husband appears in a major population center, there will be protests, counter speakers and truth squads, whereas Laura Bush is less likely to raise those hackles."

A top draw

The presence of Gutknecht, Pawlenty and Kennedy alongside the first lady also illustrates to some extent how their political fates are tied together.

Get-out-the vote efforts will play a critical role in this election. And Republican leaders hope Bush is the energizing antidote to a Republican base depressed by the war in Iraq and a scandal-plagued Washington.

Pawlenty is in a tough re-election battle with DFL candidate Mike Hatch, while most polls show Kennedy struggling to overcome a double-digit deficit to Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar.

"Each party has certain big-draw speakers that are going out and hitting most of the important congressional and Senate races in the final two weeks, and Laura Bush has got to be in the top two or three," said Joseph Kunkel, a political scientist at Minnesota State University-Mankato.

Money comes to hot races

Since a poll showing the race between Gutknecht and Walz as neck-and-neck and the $100,000 ad buy by the Republican Congressional Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has responded with a $70,000 ad buy of its own in support of Walz.

But it is unclear at this point how much more financial support the Democratic committee is prepared to give the Walz campaign, given that Walz-Gutknecht race was once rated a second-tier competitive race and Democrats are focused on winning at least 15 House seats.

National Journal's political newsletter Hotline now rates the Gutknecht-Walz race as the 36th most competitive House contest in the nation, an upgrade from its 49th ranking last week. The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and Fox TV News are among the news organizations that have turned their attention to the race in the last week.

Meredith Salsbery, a Walz campaign spokeswoman, said she's confident the Democratic committee will provide more support in the final weeks now that it's in for $70,000.

Other political heavy hitters are expected to crisscross the 1st District in the final two weeks of the campaign season. GOP Sen. John McCain will be in Rochester on Nov. 1, while former Democratic presidential contender and Sen. John Kerry will be stumping in Mankato that same day. Humorist Garrison Keiller will headline a DFL rally in Rochester the next day as the election clock ticks down.

OLLIE OX UPDATE: MORE ON LAURA BUSH'S VISIT

Below the fold.

MPR: Gutknecht facing tough challenge from Walz

It was only three weeks ago that Minnesota Public Radio was suggesting that  the congressional contest in the First was about the candidates' hairstyles.

How things change:

Mark Zdechlik, Minnesota Public Radio

October 25, 2006

First Lady Laura Bush will be in Minnesota Wednesday in hopes of firing up Republicans in the state's 1st and 6th Congressional Districts. Polls show the GOP could lose those two congressional seats to Democrats.

In the 1st District, Democrat Tim Walz is posing a serious challenge to long-time  Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht.

St. Paul, Minn. — It's early afternoon on a crisp October Friday. The election is less than three weeks away. Rep. Gil Gutknecht, R-Minn. is working the far eastern edge of Minnesota's conservative 1st Congressional District, which spans southern Minnesota from South Dakota to Wisconsin.

Sitting on a bar stool in the La Crescent American Legion Gutknecht tells about 25 supporters he did not expect to be in the electoral trouble after 12 years in Congress.

"This election in this district is incredibly important and it's proven to be much tougher than I would have thought six months ago," Gutknecht says. "In fact, it's tougher than I thought it would be two weeks ago."

Gutknecht talks about the need to keep taxes down and to reduce the cost of health care. He says Americans' patience is wearing thin regarding Iraq, and that it's time for a change in tactics.

Gutknecht also addresses the Mark Foley congressional e-mail scandal.

"I have nothing to do with this, but you know what?" he asks. "Our numbers really took a tumble and it's been universally true around the country, and it shocks me that we have been punished for something that we have nothing to do with."

How things have changed in this race, except, of course, the GOP talking points that Walz is a liberal out of touch with the First.  That line certainly has working swimmingly since the GOP rolled it out in February:

Finally, Gutknecht talks about his opponent DFLer Tim Walz. Gutknecht says Walz would raise taxes, support gay marriage, legalize abortion and weaken national defense.

"This guy... is one of the most liberal candidates that's run down here," Gutknecht says. "He has literally said that he would increase spending on virtually every federal program. The only program that he has said he would cut is the missile defense system."

And what is Tim Walz talking about?:

The next day, about an hour to the west of La Crescent, in a Rochester neighborhood, it's Democrat Tim Walz doing the talking, door to door.

Walz is a former National Guard member who served in support of the war in Afghanistan working at a supply base in Italy.

He looks more like the Mankato West High School teacher and coach that he is than a polished politician.

And at more than one house, Walz finds former Gutknecht supporters who are on his side now.

"You already got two votes out of this house," says Duane Silker, referring to his vote and the vote of his wife.

As Walz heads to the next house, Silker explains that he's voted for Gutknecht in the last six elections but that now he wants nothing to do with the GOP.

"The major thing I think right now, of course, is the war," Silker says. "I have absolutely been from the very beginning opposed to the war. And the second thing is the economy. The economy is not good. The middle class people are being killed. And that's why I'm opposed to Republicans. I can't help the Republicans," Silker says.

In Rochester Walz is stressing his opposition to the expansion of the DM&E Railroad. His support for stem cell research also plays well here, home of the Mayo Clinic. Walz has been campaigning since the beginning of last year, and he says he's confident he's going to win.

"I've been out in front of the people, speaking from the heart about the issues that matter most to them, demonstrating my leadership from things that I've done," he says. "And I think this campaign itself shows what a guy like me can do. I was told we couldn't do this, but you know what? We built a campaign from the ground up. We received the financing that they said we would never get, and we've made this race one of the most competitive in the country. If that doesn't show you what kind of guy I will be in Congress I am not sure what does."

Up the street Walz runs into another former Gutknecht supporter who says he will now be voting for him.

Pete Waitikowich is a retired World War II Navy serviceman. He's angry about the war in Iraq and says it's been a distraction from catching the culprits behind the 9-11 attacks. He's worried about the economy and he's furious Gutknecht, a term limits supporter, is running for a seventh term he said he would not seek. Waitikowich remembers 1994, when he says Gutknecht banged on his door as part of his first successful campaign for Congress.

"He said; 'Well if I go 12 years, that's enough,' Waitikowich recalls, "Now all of the sudden he thinks he found a home there."

And finally, someone in the statewide press talks to an in-district journalist who, like BSP, has been watching the race,and  knows the Walz campaign hustle:

According to campaign finance documents complied by the Center for Responsive Politics, as of the end of last month Walz had raised about $750,000, compared to Gutknecht's more than $1.1 million.

In recent weeks the tight 1st District  battle has been attracting outside "independent expenditure" money.

All the national attention to Minnesota's 1st District has come as something of a surprise. The editor of the Winona Daily News, Darrell Erlich, says Walz put himself in a good position to ride the anti-incumbency wave.

"Walz has a real appeal to every man," says Erlich. "He's a football coach. He's not as polished as Gutknecht and there's something just genuinely likeable... Gil Gutknecht is a very fine speaker, I think pretty well informed, but there's some real populist appeal to Walz," Erlich says.

Erlich also says Walz may have outworked Gutknecht by showing up everywhere around the district.

"I think how he's gotten in the door is a little bit of complacency from the Gutknecht campaign. This has been such a safe seat."

Walz takes on the "liberal" label:

Back at the American Legion in La Crescent Gutknecht seemed surprised to hear supporters say they don't have lawn signs and campaign literature.

"We've got to get signs down here. That's just outrageous. I just can't believe we didn't get that done," Gutknecht says.

Gutknecht proudly calls himself a conservative. He's hoping voters will look beyond Walz's populist appeal to his stands on the issues.

"I think we need to get them to analyze what the difference between the two of us really is," Gutknecht says. "I think once they understand, particularly in counties like Winona County and Houston County where people are socially pretty conservative people, I think once they understand where he stands on issues like gay marriage and abortion, I think a lot of those people are going to come home," Gutknecht says.

Walz avoids the label "liberal." He says decisions on things like abortion and gay marriage should be left to individuals, not the government. He says that's conservative.

"If liberal is spending 24 years in the military. If liberal is having an "A" rating from the NRA. If liberal is being happily married with two children. If liberal is wanting investments in our schools and wanting to pay down the national debt, I guess I am., But calling me the most liberal person I think what the congressman has obviously polled and found some linguistic things there that he would like to hit on," Walz says.

Gil Gutknecht defeated his last two opponents with 60 percent of the vote. In a normal year Gutknecht's would have been one of the safest of any of Minnesota's congressional seats.

Tim Walz is convinced this is not a normal year.

Democrats hope the success Walz is apparently having in Minnesota is a sign they soon will be in the majority in Washington.

There's audio with the report, too. Go listen.

 

 

 

MN-01 Morning News: Had enough yet? edition

WINONA DAILY NEWS: CLOSED DEBATE, SPARSE CROWD
The Winona Daily News reports that a "Sparse crowd watches Walz and Gutknecht debate at SMU":

By Brian Voerding | Winona Daily News When Tiim Walz and Rep. Gil Gutknecht finally  around to their half-hour debate in Winona on Tuesday, the questions didn’t give them much new to talk about.hen Tim Walz and Rep. Gil Gutknecht finally got around to their half-hour debate in Winona on Tuesday, the questions didn’t give them much new to talk about.

The debate started late. First there was a struggle with the sound; microphone feedback spilled through the audience. Then a television cameraman needed more light on the stage.

Finally, organizers waited while a few attendees took their seats in a mostly empty auditorium at Saint Mary’s University. About 15 people showed up for the event, which was restricted to Saint Mary’s community. Winona Radio planned to air the debate in Winona but has not announced a time.

The candidates responded to broad questions about health care, agriculture policy, education and the war in Iraq. Walz was more passionate, Gutknecht more eloquent, and each had quick answers for occasional attacks.

Walz, the Democratic challenger from Mankato, painted himself as someone who will bring accountability and change to Congress, while the Republican incumbent stressed that things aren’t as bad as Walz makes them out.

“You’d think this is the worst of times,” Gutknecht said.

One question asked the candidates for their position on the Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad’s plan to ship Wyoming coal and other commodities along its lines. The railroad recently applied for a $2.3 billion federal loan. A group from Rochester, including the Mayo Clinic, is actively opposing the railroad.

Gutknecht, who is from Rochester, said he was concerned about the plan, and discussed how he first heard about it seven years ago.

“I said, ‘You mean you’re going to be running high-speed trains through the middle of my district, and that’s going to be wonderful?’” he said. “It took the wind out of their sails.”

Walz pointed out that Gutknecht voted for the transportation bill that allow-ed the railroad to apply for the loan without first reading the bill. He called the bill and subsequent loan application “a great example of everything that’s wrong with this Congress.”

“The House of Representatives is the safeguard and firewall,” he said. ” … (It) needs to be responsible.”

When asked about agriculture and the upcoming 2007 Farm Bill, which will set policy for several years, Walz stressed the importance of local food networks, while Gutknecht, who serves on the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, said farmers are getting “almost record prices” for crops and promoted more food exports.

On higher education, Walz said Congress could curb rising tuition costs by scrapping tax breaks for the wealthy and needs to work harder to help American universities compete with those abroad. Gutknecht said universities are partly to blame for rising tuition, and said Congress needs to help promote broad economic development so recent college graduates can find jobs.

Each candidate had the chance to ask the other a question.

Gutknecht pointedly asked Walz who he would approve in leadership roles if Democrats regained control of the House. Republicans have argued that Democrats would elect liberal leaders out-of-step with moderate voters.

“He wants me to tell you I’m going to vote for Nancy Pelosi,” Walz said, referring to the California Democrat in line to become Speaker of the House, “so he can put it in a commercial.”

Walz didn’t say who he would vote for, but shot back a barbed reference to Mark Foley, the Republican representative from Florida who stepped down last month amid allegations he sent sexual messages to teenage Pages.

“When I vote, I’ll make sure that it there won’t be a scandal coming out of Florida.”

The race between Walz, a Mankato teacher, and Gutknecht, a six-term incumbent, has become increasingly tight. A recent poll showed the two even.

A dozen Walz supporters gathered prior to the debate along Highway 14 near the Saint Mary’s campus entrance, protesting the fact that it wasn’t open to the public.

The candidates had previously agreed to eight debates, two of them closed.

WINONA DAILY NEW LTE: HAD ENOUGH YET?
We have had enough of reading about Gutknecht quoting Charles Dickens, but WDN reader Arthur "Chip" Squires has a more substantial list of grievances:

Have you had enough of six years of Republican governance? Enron/corporate scandals. “Fixing intelligence to the policy” to lead us to war in Iraq. Secret energy policy. Halliburton no-bid contracts. “Outing” a CIA agent for political reasons. $600 million in reconstruction funds for Iraq gone missing. Abu Ghraib. “Rendition” for torture in other countries. Undermining Geneva Conventions. Illegal wire-tapping without FISA warrants. FEMA mismanagement of Hurricane Katrina relief. Rep. Tom DeLay indicted for campaign funding illegalities. Rep. Duke Cunningham jailed for bribery. Robert “Scooter” Libby indicted for perjury. Lobbyist Jack Abramoff indicted for a whole host of things! House cover-up of Rep. Mark Foley’s inappropriate behavior toward underage pages. $9 trillion in debt. $2 billion in cuts to the Veterans Administration in the past two years, while we need $6 billion to care for our disabled veterans now. Bridges to nowhere. Rising college tuition costs. Rising medical and drug costs. Tax cuts for the wealthiest during war. Stagnant wages for the middle class. Fewer people with health insurance. No raise in the minimum wage in 10 years. No immigration policy. Almost 3,000 dead and 30,000 wounded in unending wars. Where’s Osama?

Is it time for change? For accountability? For checks and balances? Yes. Please vote your conscience.

WASHINGTON POST: GOP LEANS ON PROVEN STRATEGY
Will it fall and not get up?  The Washington Post looks at the GOP's increasingly frantic drive to hang on to the Senate and House:

Beset by discouraging polls and division within ideological ranks, the White House is accelerating efforts to woo back disaffected conservatives and energize the Republican base in a reprise of a strategy that succeeded in the last two campaign cycles.

President Bush and Vice President Cheney have given multiple interviews to conservative journalists, senior adviser Karl Rove has telephoned religious and social activists, and the White House has staged signing ceremonies for legislation cracking down on terrorism and illegal immigration. Two weeks before Election Day, Bush aides invited dozens of radio talk show hosts for a marathon broadcast from the White House yesterday to reach conservative listeners.

GOP pollster Frank Luntz says it won't help:

Some conservatives said it is too late. "They honestly need a baseball bat against the head," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who helped Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) take over Congress in the 1990s. "Because if they don't change the lexicon immediately, as bad as this election is going to be, they're going to lose the presidency in 2008. I've given up on 2006. They've already made so many mistakes, there's no way they can fix it in two weeks. But I'm worried now they're going to lose all the marbles."

We believe that baseball bats are best used to hit one out of the park, rather than for correcting one's friends and allies.  Help Tim Walz hit one out the park by volunteering for his campaign.

MN-01: Civility and its discontents

STAR TRIBUNE: CIVILITY TAKES A BRIEF BREAK IN FIRST DISTRICT DEBATE
The Star Tribune struggles to find a frame for the Walz-Gutknecht race in the Fighting First:

U.S. Rep. Gil Gutknecht and challenger Tim Walz turned harsh at times in their campaign debate in Winona.

Bob Von Sternberg, Star Tribune

WINONA, MINN. - The gloves came off, if only briefly, in the First Congressional District race Tuesday.

For a half-hour Tuesday afternoon, Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht and Democrat Tim Walz debated issues ranging from the war in Iraq to the coal-train plan that has stirred intense opposition in Rochester, the district's biggest city.

But in a campaign that has seen civility reign -- mostly -- during several debates (if not in the candidates' television ads), both men took a few sharp pokes at each other.

When Gutknecht raised the specter of a Democratic House of Representatives being ruled next year by unabashed liberals, Walz shot back, "I have no allegiance to anyone but the people in my district ... If we have the leadership, you won't see things like the scandal in Florida. You want me to say [Minority Leader] Nancy Pelosi so you can put it in a commercial. If it's Nancy Pelosi, so be it."

In his closing, Gutknecht said that "if you listen to my opponent, you would think this is the worst of times in our country. But America is stronger, safer and more prosperous than at any time since 2001."

The jabs, despite the lack of a yawning difference between Gutknecht and Walz on many issues, reflects the fact that what was originally seen as a yawner of a race for the six-term incumbent has become unexpectedly competitive, drawing national attention and big bucks from both parties' congressional campaign committees.

The most recent poll in the district, which sprawls across southern Minnesota, showed the race a statistical tossup between Gutknecht and Walz, a teacher from Mankato who spent more than two decades in the National Guard. National political handicapping services also have reflected the tightening of the race, giving the district only a "lean Republican" rating.

Reflecting that situation, the National Republican Congressional Committee has broadcast a commercial attacking Walz's stance on immigration. The Democrats' campaign committee parried that with an ad attacking Gutknecht for voting against increased military benefits while backing a pay raise for members of Congress.

In successive days this week, the New York Times and Los Angeles Times ran stories on the race, with the latter characterizing it as one of a growing number of races in which GOP incumbents "are struggling this month against a powerful current of discontent."

Areas of agreement

On several issues Tuesday, the difference between the candidates was rhetorical, or merely muted. They agreed that the health care system is broken, and while Gutknecht favors market-oriented solutions, Walz called health care a basic right for all Americans. Both pledged allegiance to the family farm and agreed that families need help to cope with the skyrocketing costs of higher education.

And while both said they supported the basic idea of the Dakota, Minnesota and Eastern Railroad project, which will cut across the entire district, they said they want it to be both safe and financially solid.

On the war in Iraq, both said that it's vital that Iraqis themselves take the lead in providing security in that country, but beyond that, they diverged. "This house is on fire, and it's someone's responsibility to put it out -- that's our civilian leadership," Walz said. He called for "less arrogance, bring in the experts" and said the nation needs to engage in more aggressive diplomacy.

Gutknecht said that while "negotiating's fine," when the enemy straps suicide bombs on teenagers, "try negotiating with people like that." After a trip to Iraq last summer, he said, he came to the realization that "the situation was much worse than I was led to believe. And I had the courage to tell the president and you."

The Rochester Post-Bulletin and other  First Congressional District papers have found clear differences between the candidates. The Post Bulletin wrote in mid-September in an editorial titled "Clear choice in 1st District"

The debate over national security proposals has spilled over into district congressional races. Even though Gutknecht indicated his positions are open for change, voters appear to have a clear choice between Gutknecht and Walz.

Has Gutknecht changed so much since September 15 that reporters covering debates can't tell a difference now?

KTTC: TIGHT TO THE FINISH
A local television station has a different take on the St. Mary's debate:

Chris Woodard
KTTC TV
 
ROCHESTER, MN -- For more than a decade the district one congressional seat has been held by the same man.
 
Year after year Gil Gutknecht has sent his opponents packing, but admits that this is the toughest race he's ever been in.
 
It's all in the fight to be your next congressman.
 
Tim Walz is trying to stand tall where many before him have fallen, in a battle with Gil Gutknecht. 
 
For 12 years Gutknecht has been Minnesota's first district congressman and he's leaning on that experience in one of the state's tightest races.
 
Gutknecht says, "I think it's like a heavyweight champion, I mean if you've been in fights before you have the ability not only to deliver a punch but to take one"
 
Gutknecht says right or wrong seniority does help in Washington and because he's been there for so long he has an advantage when it comes to getting things done for our area.
 
Walz couldn't be any more different. 
 
The teacher from Mankato has no political experience but he sees that as an advantage.
 
Walz says, "Not being the career politician gives me the perspective of what is really bothering people and what's there hopes and dreams for the future and it makes it easy for me to speak about it."
 
Both candidates say if elected keeping this country safe and dealing with Iraq will be their top priority.
 
Walz says, "We have to truly secure this nation and we have to understand that Iraq is draining resources from that."
 
Gutknecht says, "In the end the future of Iraq belongs to the Iraqis and we need to continue to put pressure on the Iraqi government to step up and police their own streets."
 
Closer to home the candidates understand that a loan to the DM&E railroad is a crucial issue to voters in this area.
 
Walz says, "This discussion we're having on DM&E should have taken place on the front end the reason it didn't is we have a broken government that is sending things through in the middle of the night."
 
Gutknecht says if the loan does go through government needs to make sure it is repaid, "I've never been a big fan of the railroad but on the other hand I recognize representing 600-thousand people across the length of Southern Minnesota that number one we do need railroads."
 
An agreement on what is important can't hide the difference of opinion on how to attack those issues and those differences ensure that this will be a fight to the finish.

NORWEGIANITY:  ON THE RADICAL CENTER

The Wege considers Tim Walz's centrism in light of a new WaPo column:

E.J. Dionne sees the rise of the "radical center," a group you may not have heard from before. My guess would be because there aren't any in Congress right now, although Dionne says that will change on November 7.

There has long been talk about the rise of a "radical center," made up of voters essentially moderate in their philosophical leanings but radical in their disaffection with the status quo. This looks to be the year of the radical center. If it is, the Democrats will win. And if they win, their task will be to meet the aspirations of a diverse group of dissatisfied and disappointed Americans. Not an easy chore, but one that certainly beats being in the opposition.

[E.J. Dionne, Washington Post op-ed]

Dionne doesn't mention Tim Walz, but he should have. Centrism is OK with me so long as the middle-of-the-roader understands that even the center can take hard stands on hard issues instead of constantly ducking and covering à la Clinton-Schumer et al.

CITY PAGES: MOVIN' ON UP

The City Pages' The Blotter reports that the Walz-Gutknecht contest has moved up o the national Journal's rankings:

The First Congressional District, meanwhile, vaulted up 13 places, to 39th on the list. In that race incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht is facing a robust challenge from retired school teacher and National Guard Vet Tim Walz. The most recent poll indicates that the race is a virtual dead heat.

OLLIE OX UPDATE
THE LIFE FANTASTIC: YAWN AT THIS
Bill at The Life Fantastic has a few choice words for the Strib's coverage for the St. Mary's debate in "Yawn at this. . ."

 

Thanks Bob.  Thanks a whole lot.  So you covered the Walz-Gutknecht race. Thank you. Thank you for calling this a "yawner." So very insightful. You really do have your finger on the pulse of this race. Just ask Ollie, this has truly been a "yawner" since day one.  Ask the 1,394 Donors on the Netroots site. We only throw our money at "yawners." (And I put myself on that list as donor #6(for the sake of full disclosure)). And since you asked (which actually you didn't) you want a yawning difference. Yawn at this. . .

There's a YouTube at TLF that illustrates another clear difference between the candidates.

New York Times: Suddenly, A Contest

What took the New York Times (and the DCCC) so long?:

By CARL HULSE

Democrats believe they have identified a new political opportunity in the First  District of Minnesota, where they are beginning a late television campaign against Representative Gil Gutknecht, seeking to put a once-safe Republican seat into play.

Mr. Gutknecht, left, is being challenged by Tim Walz, a high school teacher and football coach with the added cachet of two decades in the National Guard.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pumping money into an advertisement criticizing Mr. Gutknecht for voting against added military benefits while backing Congressional raises. The National Republican Congressional Committee weighed in with an attack against the Democrat on immigration.

Two weeks.  Volunteer for Tim Walz or give via the ActBlue Netroots Candidate page.

   

A look at Gil Gutknecht's health care proposals

In today's Washington Post, staff writer Christopher Lee looks at Rand's major new study of consumer-driven health care plans in "Health Plans Raise Concerns; Study Says New Model Leads Some to Skip Necessary Care."

The articles defines these plans as:

In contrast to traditional plans, in which beneficiaries typically pay a modest deductible and co-payments of $15 or $20 for visits to the doctor, the new plans can require consumers to shell out hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars of their own money for drugs, doctors and hospital care before most coverage kicks in.

The annual deductible in a consumer-directed plan is generally $1,050 to $2,000 for individuals and $2,100 to $4,000 for families -- far higher than the average $220 deductible in a traditional employer-sponsored health plan. Premiums tend to be lower, however.

Consumer-directed plans have been heavily promoted by the Bush administration as a way to rein in spiraling health-care spending by giving consumers a financial incentive to shop around for the best care at a reasonable price -- and to get only the care they need.

The new plans often are linked to health savings accounts (HSAs), created by Congress in 2003 to allow consumers to set aside tax-free dollars to pay for medical expenses.

In short, low-premium, high deductible ( or catastrophic) insurance plans combined with health savings accounts.  This caught our attention, as it mirrors the health care proposals Gutknecht related to the Fairmont Sentinel earlier in October.  Gutknecht adds the wrinkle of "minute clinics":

When it comes to health care, the nation is at a crossroads, according to Gutknecht. He said we are either going to have government-controlled health care, which he opposes, or a system driven by the market to achieve better prices.

There need to be more choices for health care and Gutknecht suggests a few concepts that show promise:

o “Minute clinics” are working in some areas. The clinics are located in stores or malls and require a monthly fee, about $39, and basic medical care is provided.

“Combine that with catastrophic insurance policies and a health savings account and you can provide a lot of families with relatively inexpensive health care,” Gutknecht said.

How well would this package work? The Washington Post reports:

But are the plans working as advertised? Yes and no, the Rand study found.

With consumer-directed plans, most employers save at least 10 percent on health costs. A few reported saving as much as 25 percent, although some of the "savings" may simply be a shift in costs to workers, the researchers found.

And people enrolled in the plans do appear to be cutting back on their health care. Studies show a 4 to 15 percent reduction in spending for those without an HSA in their plan, and a 2 to 7 percent reduction for those with one.

That reduction is both good and bad, the Rand study found. In some cases, for example, the greater cost-sharing burden on consumers meant that they did not go to the emergency room for problems that did not require it. At other times, people were forgoing necessary care and potentially jeopardizing their health.

"The evidence is really mixed," said Melinda Beeuwkes Buntin, a Rand economist and the lead author. "There are some studies in which people are reporting that they don't fill a prescription or they don't get follow-up that's recommended by a doctor. So those two things would be cause for concern."

Another concern is that consumer-directed plans might attract disproportionate numbers of the healthy and the wealthy, leaving sicker, less affluent consumers in traditional plans. That, in turn, could force traditional plans to raise their rates even faster, since there would be fewer healthy participants to share the costs of needed care in any given year.

Rand researchers did find that the early switchers to the new plans tended to have higher incomes and be in somewhat better health than their counterparts in traditional plans, a "modest" disparity that researchers say "warrants monitoring."

They also concluded that patients are still struggling to find good, consistent information about the cost and quality of the health care they receive, the kind of data needed if the new plans are to work. The government could help establish standard measures for assessing quality, they wrote, and could remove legal obstacles to pooling data from private insurers.

"I don't think that these plans can be a panacea," for rising health-care costs, Buntin said, "but they could, if well-designed, be one part of the strategy for rationalizing our system of health insurance."

Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA, a health-care advocacy group, is not convinced. Pollack said the new plans will deter people from getting needed care, weaken traditional insurance plans by siphoning away the healthiest beneficiaries and favor wealthy participants who will get a larger tax break.

They also will do little to save on costs because these plans will still pay for the catastrophic illness and end-of-life care that is responsible for 85 percent of health-care spending annually in the United States, he said.

"Every few years people are looking for a magic bullet to deal with costs," Pollack said. "And this bullet results in the shooting of a dud."

And health savings accounts? Think Progress summarized shortfalls it found in "The Truth About Health Savings Accounts":

Multiple studies have shown that HSAs are likely to increase the number of uninsured and increase health care costs, all while costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars. In other words, President Bush is proposing to do for health care what he’s already tried with Social Security — placing more of the cost burden on individuals, while making the system more attractive to the wealthy but less effective for ordinary Americans who need health coverage most.

In September, the Journal of the American Medicial Association (JAMA) reported on a GAO study of consumer response to HSAs:

Members of focus groups organized by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) described generally positive experiences with health savings accounts but they would not recommend them to all consumers, said the government agency in a report released September 12 (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06798.pdf).

The focus group members recommended health savings accounts to healthy consumers but not to those who use maintenance medications, have chronic conditions, have children, or who may not have funds to meet the high deductibles.

The GAO report found that health savings account–eligible enrollees generally had higher incomes than those younger than 65 years enrolled in traditional insurance plans. In 2004, the report said, 51% of tax filers (combination individual and family) reporting a health savings account contribution had an adjusted gross income of $75 000 or more compared with 18% of all tax filers under age 65.

In short, health savings accounts work--for the healthy and the wealthy.

What of  "minute clinics"?  "Minute clinics" are clinics staffed by nurse practitioners who diagnose and treat a short list of common ailments.  They are well-suited for the quick access they give health consumers who don't need to consult their doctor; supporters also discuss their potential profit yielding for investors.

The medical establishment stresses the limitations of the clinics, which do not not treat chronic conditions or serious illnesses:

The American Medical Association and the American Hospital Association are wary of the trend. What is best for patients, they say, is an ongoing relationship with a doctor.

“We don’t want to see nursing care substituted for physician care,” said Dr. Edward Hill, president-elect of the AMA. “This type of clinic might not lend itself very well for continuity.”

Viewed together, Gutknecht's suggestions seem to be inadequate to the task of providing affordable, high quality health care except to those who can already afford it. Or who don't need it.

On September 1, the Owatonna People's Press reported on a health care forum Gutknecht attended with some associates ( behind a subscription firewall--the editor wants permission to run any length of quote from the OPP, so we're revising here, paraphrasing anything from the paper, regardless of how long or short the quote may be; contact the OPP for the actual text of the article).