A closer look at the returns

Now that we've gotten a bit of sleep, it's time to look at the returns.

ROCHESTER TRENDS BLUE
The 2004 state house elections in Rochester were no fluke: Rochester is trending blue. Gutknecht lost touch with his home town over DM & E, the war, and health care. As the largest citiy in the district, a blue Rochester provides an anchor for the DFL in the area.

THE HOME TOWN ADVANTAGE: BLUE EARTH AND NICOLLET COUNTIES
Well-loved and well-known as a teacher and a commander, Walz had no trouble in his home county and adjoining Nicollet County (as someone who was born in Mankato and attended St. Peter Public Schools from  second grade until graduation, let me assure folks who aren't from around there how closely entwined these two counties are). Students at GAC also voted heavily; the superior College Democrats chapter at the Lutheran liberal arts college played an important role.

BLUE COLLARS STAY BLUE
Labor doorknocking and GOTV kicked up turn-out in Austin and Albert Lea, where blue-collar Democrats tend to vote in presidential, but frequently stay home in the mid-term elections. Gutknecht's bad votes on raising the minimum wage and anti-labor record caught up with him this year, while his alliances with anti-immigration demogogues failed to distract blue-collar voters from their own best interests.  Freeborn and Mower County stay blue.

THE GUS FACTOR
A good baby.

SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
Not only did Walz do well in Winona County, but Fillmore, Houston, and the slice of Wabasha County that's in the First ended up in the Walz column.  Credit the blue collar college town for the first, and look to agressive gains from local DFLers in the other, with state House and Senate picks over local issues.  Never propose burning tires in a bucolic town like Preston.

THE "MINGE" COUNTIES
One bit of conventional wisdom about the First is that the western counties, once part of the old MN-02 before redistricting, send Mark Kennedy to congress in 2000 when he squeaked past David Minge by 155 votes. These places, the logic, were deep red.

Truth be told, the GOP in 2000 had focused on the two reddest counties in the Southwest:  Martin and Brown Counties. And indeed, both counties remained red, with Walz drawing about the same percentage as Minge received in Brown in 2000.

Walz won in Murray, Nobles, Watonwan counties, just as Minge had--albeit with larger margins. Gutknecht topped Walz in Jackson County by a mere 16 votes, and supposedly deep red Cottonwood County sent 48% of its vote to Walz. Minge won 51% of Jackson County in 2000 and took Cottonwood County in 2000 by one vote.

Tim Walz spent much of his time campaigning in the eastern population centers, but we're betting that if he provides solid constituent service and remains a straight shooter, these Blue Dog counties will slide into the Walzcolumn in 2008.

WE SEEK A WASECA BASE
Waseca County is known as a pretty red place, but it's also Tim Penny's home town. Longtime Penny supporter Don Zwack helped out, and Walz captured a respectable 48% of the vote.

SEND IN THE CLOWNS: HOMEGROWN COMEDIANS
From its citadel in St. Paul, the Republican Party of Minnesota sent wave after wave of surly press releases painting Tim Walz as out of touch with the people of the First because he campaigned with Minnesota comedians Garrison Keillor and Al Franken. 

Truth be told, the citizens of Southern Minnesota flocked to the rallies and benefits featuring Keillor and Franken, while rejecting the humorless attacks.  There's a reason Stephen Colbert's parody of America's fake outrage media machine is so wildly successful. 

Comments

[Archer Dem]

"Students at GAC also voted heavily; the superior College Democrats chapter at the Lutheran liberal arts college played an important role."

I have to say I am extremely proud of the students here. We had too many volunteers to even keep them all busy. Every single door on campus was knocked several times during the day, as well as each of our St. Peter walk lists being hit at least twice. The machine was beautiful and efficient. We pulled over 75% for Tim here.

Meanwhile, there wasn't a Republican operation in sight. Hopefully this trend continues and we'll for once be able to truly call ourselves an organized political party.