A kind friend noticed a curious passage in the full text article of Walz stuffs war chest, from the dead tree edition of the Mankato Free Press:
Davis warned during a post-endorsement media tour last week that his firstquarter fund-raising would not be strong because his attention in recent months has been focused on holding personal meetings with many of the 250 or so GOP delegates to the 1st District Republican Convention. That effort was successful as Davis topped state Rep. Randy Demmer of Hayfield on the first ballot to win the endorsement.
But it leaves Davis in a deep financial hole with the election now less than seven months away. Like Walz in 2006, Davis is a first- time candidate for public office hoping to score an upset victory over an incumbent congressman.
Walz, however, determined three years ago at the beginning of his upstart campaign that he needed to raise at least $1 million, mostly for television advertising, in anticipation of a blitz of television attack ads by Gutknecht. By the first quarter of 2006, Walz was out-raising Gutknecht and had cut the incumbent's cash- on-hand advantage to $555,000.
Davis' campaign account is nearly $1 million lighter than Walz's and he still faces a primary election challenge for the Republican nomination from state Sen. Dick Day of Owatonna. A member of the Day campaign said Thursday that his fundraising report, which isn't due at the Federal Elections Commission until next week, was still being compiled.
Davis promised a better fund-raising total for the second quarter of the year, and he still expects national Republican leaders to provide money and resources to his campaign. . .
We find this passage remarkable for several reasons. First, Davis now claims that his fundraising lagged because he had to spend time on personal visits with 250 district convention delegates. This comes on the heels of a fundraising email sent right after the endorsement claiming that he'd been spending time with voters in the district:
Brian has been criss-crossing the state visiting with Minnesota voters about his solutions to stabilize the American economy, lower gas prices and fix our health care system . . .
In the same sentence, DAvis asserted that Walz spent all his time collecting PAC funds, enough though for the cycle, individual contributions actually form about sixty percent of Walz's war chest. Davis is the one telling papers he's going to be getting that Beltway party money.
In the real world, Walz has spent his time travelling the district holding economic, education and energy summits, vets issues meeting at service clubs, small business information meeting, farm policy town halls, Iraq war town halls and dozens upon dozens of open public meetings where anyone can show up and participate.
Secondly, we're curious just which Republican leaders Davis expects to give to his campaign.
John Boehner's ROMP has decided to focus on two Republican candidates in Minnesota. He's playing defense on Representative Michelle Bachmann in the Sixth, and helping Eric Paulsen hang on to the Third, vacated by the retirement of Jim Ramstad. The Star Tribune reported on this in Bachmann gets financial help from GOP fund.
The NRCC has on having fundraising problems of its own, though it does seem to be putting the embezzlement scandal behind it. Sunday, the Washington Post reported:
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen is thinking big about the 2008 election.
Taking his cues from Rep. Rahm Emanuel (IL). who led Democrats back into the majority in 2006 by drastically broadening the number of competitive races, Van Hollen projects as many as 50 Republican seats in play this fall.
To make good on that sort of commitment, Van Hollen's DCCC needs money -- and lots of it.
If the first three months of 2008 are any indication, his committee is well on its way. From Jan. 1 to March 31, the DCCC raised $20 million and, more impressively, retained a massive $44 million in the bank to spend on races. In the last month alone, the DCCC collected more than $11 million and added $6 million to its total cash on hand.
That fundraising pace puts the House Democratic campaign arm far ahead of where it was at this time last cycle -- a reflection, at least in part, of the difference between being in the minority then and in the majority now. At the end of March 2006, the DCCC had raised just short of $15 million, with $23 million on hand.
More important, the DCCC's fundraising in this election cycle continues to dwarf that of its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee . The NRCC has yet to release its fundraising figures for the first quarter of 2008, but through the first two months of the year, the committee had collected $8.3 million, with $5 million left in the bank.
. . .While the NRCC may be able to fight the DCCC to a financial draw in [a May 3 special election in Louisiana], the financial picture looks increasingly dire for House Republicans. If Van Hollen makes good on his promise to contest 50 Republican seats, the NRCC may be forced to pick and choose where it invests, leaving a good many challengers (and perhaps even an incumbent or two) on their own.
In the article, Van Hollen worried about other groups, but even there, there's not an enormous or well organized crowd to whom Davis can put out his begging bowl. on Saturday, the New York Times reported about Freedom's Watch, a highly trumpeted political non-profit in Great Expectations for a Conservative Group Seem All but Dashed.
The headline speaks volumes.
The New Ulm Journal editorialized today:
. . . Fundraising is certainly an indication of a healthy campaign. Will Rogers once wrote, “Politics has got so expensive that it takes lots of money even to get beat with.” And that was in 1931, before TV advertising replaced speeches and debates as the way to campaign.
Rep. Tim Walz announced he has raised $352,000 in the first quarter of this year, bringing his campaign total to $1.5 million for this election. That puts him far ahead of the endorsed Republican candidate, Dr. Brian Davis, who raised about $59,000 and will have to spend some of whatever he raises on the primary campaign against Republican challenger, state Sen. Dick Day.
Walz is proud of the source of his donations — lots of smaller donors, which indicates broad support. . . .
The paper notes a fundamental truth about elections:
. . .it still comes down to the horses actually running the race, or in an election, the voters casting their votes.
No arguing with that. And from what we have seen, Walz and the energetic young campaign team he's hired--and the hordes of volunteers from across the district--aren't taking any vote for granted.
Davis has a couple of things going for him. #1. His home county is the largest and the one that turned on Gutknecht. If you read last week’s NYT magazine article featuring Congressman Tom Cole’s ideal candidates, that’s what they want … the candidates to be from the critical counties. The second thing that they want is candidates who can self-finance through their own contacts. Did you see the report that the number 1 lobbying group was the pharmaceuticals/health products industry which saw 25 percent increase to $444.7 million in 2007. How much will they send to support Dr. Davis ? Remember the TV ads during the SCHIP votes that attacked Walz … they’ll be plenty of outside groups. Also, my take on the NYT Freedom Watch troubles is that it was more a problem of internal personalities … but then again when Bear Stearns and GE problems hit, even the super rich get antsy.
All said, if Boehner is concerned about Bachmann that should be a concern for the hardcore right-wingers since Bachmann has been a member of MillionDollar club of fundraisers since last year. She’s an upcoming media darling for them.
But that really shows is that John Kline is left vulnerable … the last time I looked, Kline was behind his historical fundraising pace and he’s in a spendy media market.
The DCCC really needs to step into Minnesota and support Madia to replace Ramstad and Sarvi in Kline’s district.
Ollie replies:
Interesting observation about Kline. You do know that Kline has been Davis's mentor, don't you?
Given Davis's paltry fundraising, "self-funding" doesn't look to be that strong a possibility. But money from the drug industry is a distinct possibility. . .but it has yet to happen. But to help guard against that possibility, those who want to see Walz returned to congress should not get complacent about the COH and continue to contribute. We agree some coin to Madia and Sarvi is a great idea.
As for Davis being from the most populous county, Gutknecht was from Olmsted as well. Given that Davis's health care ideas clash with those that Mayo has advanced through it own health care policy center and his lack of involvement with the broader Rochester community, it's hard to say that living in Rochester will be an advantage for him. After all, Gutknecht's lack of leadership on the DM & E issue was symptomatic of his lack of engagement with his constituents. Davis doesn't give any indication that he'll be anything other than a "teleforum" representative like his mentor Kline.
Walz, on the other hand, is extremely accessible in the district and in Washington.
Posted by: MinnesotaCentral | April 14, 2008 at 09:25 AM