Will Bardwell, live blogging in Mississippi's own Fighting First, has called the special election on behalf of Democratic candidate Travis Childers, over Republican Greg Davis.
The Associated Press follows suit with Miss. Democrat wins House seat in GOP stronghold:
Democrat Travis Childers wins a U.S. House seat in Mississippi's deeply Republican 1st Congressional District.
Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis in a special election to fill the final few months of a two-year term in Congress. The seat was vacated when Roger Wicker was appointed to the U.S. Senate after Trent Lott resigned.
The win allows Democrats to add to their 235-199 majority in Congress — if only for a few months until November's general elections.
Childers, Davis and two other candidates face off again in November's general election.
Childers' election marks the third special election this year in which a Democrat has taken a Republican seat. This loss should provoke panic in MN-01's Republicans. Why? Money and message.
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza notes in Democrat Wins Mississippi Special Election:
House Democrats won a conservative northern Mississippi House seat in a special election tonight, a victory certain to send shock waves through the ranks of congressional GOPers.
The Associated Press called the race for Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D), shortly after 10 p.m. eastern time. With 81 percent of precincts reporting, Childers held a 51 to 49 percent edge over Southhaven Mayor Greg Davis (R).
The victory marked the third time this election cycle that Democrats have won a Republican-held seat in a special election and seemed to suggest that the national political atmosphere could significantly broaden the House playing field in the fall.
Mississippi's 1st district had long been a conservative stronghold. President George W. Bush won it with 59 percent of the vote in 2000 and 62 percent in 2004. Roger Wicker (R), whose appointment to the Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott (R) created the vacancy in the House, had held the district easily since 1994 -- never winning reelection with less than 63 percent of the vote.
But, the confluence of a treacherous national politicial environment for Republicans, a divisive GOP primary and the emergence of Childers, a social conservative from the more rural reaches of the districts, as the Democratic candidate combined to make the race an unlikely pickup opportunity.
The fallout from this trio of losses is sure to be significant for House Republicans. . . .
Politico's The Crypt blog observes:
Democrats picked up a northern Mississippi House seat in one of the most conservative-minded districts in the country Tuesday night -- an upset that will reverberate darkly through a House Republican caucus already reeling from losses in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana. . . .
. . .The victory marks the Democrats’ third straight special election pickup in three months. It will be a serious blow to the Republican Party’s already-flagging morale and will surely prompt a new round of finger-pointing among the already fractured GOP caucus.
"This loss is going to prompt serious introspection by our conference to figure out what went wrong and how to fix it," said a GOP leadership aide. "We have time to do that, and we will if we learn our lessons leading into November. But the next couple of days are not going to be pretty."
. . .The results amount to a rebuke of the Republican strategy of trying nationalize the race by tying Childers to Sen. Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Obama held low approval ratings in the district, but the nearly $2 million that GOP groups poured into northern Mississippi failed to make the race a referendum on the national political landscape.
. . .A GOP House leadership aide told Politico last week that “if we don’t win in Mississippi, I think you are going to see a lot of people running around here looking for windows to jump out of.”
The $1.27 million that the NRCC spent in the heavily Republican district amounted to nearly 20 percent of the committee's entire cash-on-hand. The committee has now spent more than $3 million to defend three conservative House seats, losing all three of them, and it is ill-equipped financially to compete fully in an ever-widening playing field for November. . . .
. . ."His victory has sent a political thunderbolt across America tonight," DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen said in a statement. "It is yet another rejection of the House Republican agenda, the Bush Administration’s misguided policies, and John McCain’s campaign for a third Bush term." . . .
So what does this mean for Minnesota's First? As we've noted, the endorsed Republican candidate had less than $50,000 cash in hand at the end of March, and he faces a primary challenge against a GOP opponent with more money and name recognition. Speaking to the press, Minnesota's own Davis had explained away his dismal fundraising by saying that national Republicans would be coming to his aid.
And what has the NRCC said to House Republicans?:
. . .Cole’s overall message was clear, said members who sat through the meeting: “If you’re not out doing your own work, and you’re waiting for the NRCC to come in at the last minute and save you, it ain’t gonna happen.” That’s how one lawmaker characterized Cole’s talk, adding that the NRCC is “not going to have the resources” to help all members “and Democrats will have a lot more money.” . . .
And that's to incumbent House members already serving.
Second, the House GOP's strategy of tagging Democrats with the supposed taint of Obama and Pelosi is a dog that simply doesn't hunt. The Washington Post reported in As Losses Mount, GOP Begins Looking in the Mirror:
"We can't win SOLELY by tying our opponents to Barack Obama and his liberal views. We also have to prove Republicans are agents of change," Boehner told his colleagues, according to talking points prepared by his staff and provided to The Post.
Boehner expects to unveil portions of a new policy agenda this week, part of a year-long effort to "rebrand" his party's image.
That strategy has thrashed around in Minnesota's tallgrass and didn't retrieve any traction, either.
Finally, Plan B, that re-branding, the "Change You Deserve," due to be rolled out Thursday by the NRCC, was called out first here at Bluestem for mirroring a trademarked slogan for a Wyeth anti-depressant. Within 24 hours, even Michele Malkin and Rush Limbaugh were calling the NRCC for stupidity.
We'll have more in the morning. Congratulations, Representative Childers. We hope you'll work well with the representative of Minnesota's First, Tim Walz.
Image: Michele Malkin's blog used the ex-elephant image to illustrate her points about the "Change You Deserve" slogan.
Note: the posts was revised slightly for clarity.
Will the earthquake centered in Mississippi’s First District cause tremors in Minnesota’s Second ?
Unless Dick Day agrees to “take one for the team”, the First District should be ranked as Strong Democratic. Although a primary fight between Brian Davis and Day may get some media attention and public awareness as they both trash-talk Congressman Tim Walz, in the end the NRCC will look to other races to spend their money.
Besides what you have already written (excellently as usual), incumbent House Republicans are reluctant to transfer money to the RNCC for re-distribution to other races.
As Alex Bolton of The Hill wrote in an article entitled “GOP snubs Boehner’s plea for cash” :
Republican leaders expect much from those to whom much is given. They want senior Republicans to use their fundraising power to help the entire conference.
Boehner issued a blunt challenge to his colleagues last month, telling them to get off their “dead asses” to help the campaign committee.
Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.), ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee has not contributed to the NRCC from his personal campaign account or his leadership political action committee (PAC).
Rep. Steve Chabot (Ohio), senior Republican on Small Business, has shared none of his funds, either.
Rep. Ralph Hall (Texas), ranking member on Science and Technology, gave $10,500 from his reelection fund.
Rep. Don Young (Alaska), the leading Republican on the Natural Resources panel, has given significantly less than other senior Republicans have. He gave $50,000 from his campaign account in January 2007 and $15,000 from a leadership PAC. Democrats are targeting Young this election cycle.
Rep. Steve Buyer (Ind.), Republican leader on the Veterans’ Affairs panel, gave $28,500 from his leadership committee, Storm Chasers. While that sum might be acceptable from a rank-and-file member, Republican leaders consider it disappointing coming from a senior colleague.
Rep. Pete King (N.Y.), senior Republican on Homeland Security, gave $50,000, a modest amount compared to some other ranking Republicans.
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My memory is not good but I thought that Gil Gutknecht was assigned a $100,000 goal for his sub-committee chairmanship role.
With the number of open seats in Ohio and the need to retain its Electoral College votes for McCain, there will be a lot of money sent to Ohio. Florida is another state where there should be a money demand to protect incumbents.
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has already received some funding and has a million-dollar warchest ... but John Kline is sitting there with half that and a spendy TV market. DFLer’s need to embrace Steve Sarvi with a strong grassroots effort and donations.
Ollie says: We completely agree.
Posted by: MinnesotaCentral | May 14, 2008 at 05:05 AM