Any poll, especially one conducted this far out from November's elections, is a snapshot of what those polled thought at the time they were conducted.
However, the polling memo from the Benenson Strategy Group that we just received from Ms. James at the DCCC does contain very good news for Tim Walz's bid for re-election. The bad news isn't quite as bad for Dick Day as it is for Brian Davis:
The survey we recently conducted on behalf of Congressman Tim Walz (MN CD1) shows that he has large leads over both of his potential GOP opponents.
As the table below shows, his lead over Dick Day is slightly smaller than his lead over Brian Davis (35% vs. 40%) but in both cases Walz is well-positioned to win re-election and currently has the support of about six in ten voters. Walz has a 57% to 22% lead over Day and a 60% to 20% lead over Davis as shown in the table below.
This report covers the results of our survey of 502 likely general election voters district-wide.
The interviews were conducted May 17 – 19, 2008. The margin of error for overall results of is ±4.37%.
The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Senator Robert Menendez (NJ). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants last year for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s effort against Senator DeWine. It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster each election.
It's difficult to comment on this without knowing the wording of the questions.
How much of this was just pure name recognition? Too often, I find that people generally do not know who their Representative is.
Was there an adequate representation of the district's communities and demographics?
How well did Walz do in Rochester versus his perceived strongholds in Austin/Mankato/Winona?
Walz has gotten good press coverage for his efforts on veterans and farming issues ... those groups may have had a better grasp of who represents them in Congress.
Did the polling group also ask about Presidential (I see that Obama is one of their clients) and US Senate? If so and voters split their votes, that would give a warmer feeling that Walz is truly known to the voters.
What we do know now is the floor for the Republicans ... they can get less than 20%. How high is the ceiling ... that will be determined in November.
All in all, it's good news for the Congressman ... but its way too early as the Smear and Sleaze campaign hasn't really started. If Walz wins reelection by 7-8 points in his first defense that is outstanding considering the strong Republican roots in the First District. The test will be how well Walz can help the upside and downside of the ticket --- US Senate and MN House (as well as supporting Sarvi in the Second).
Posted by: McPherson Hall | May 30, 2008 at 09:18 PM