Roll Call: Walz so far does not have significant challenge in 2008

Via Nexis, we go behind the subscription firewall at Roll Call and fish out this early-bird assessment about Minnesota's congressional battlegrounds in an article reviewing the Midwest:

1st district

Incumbent: Tim Walz (D)

1st term (53 percent)

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Freshman Walz so far does not appear to have a significant challenge on his hands for re-election in November, despite the Republican lean of his district.

Republicans had trouble settling on one of three candidates this spring. Even though the 1st district GOP endorsed Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis, state Sen. Dick Day has decided to go against his party and run in the Republican primary on Sept. 9.

In other words, Republicans won’t have their candidate until after the summer and will have a primary on their hands in the meantime. Davis has shown that he’s willing to put his own money into the race, but Day has the benefit of being an elected official.

In a district like this, a GOP primary fight works to Walz’s advantage.

While Davis may have put a bit of money in, it's doubtful that he'll be able to front the sort of bucks that will overcome Walz's enormous cash advantage.   We've noticed that the Walz campaign has held a number of wildly successful fundraisers since the Q1 deadline on March 31, while Davis's campaign is publicly quiet about whatever efforts it may be conducting.

And unlike earlier quarters, there was no press release posted at the Davis blog or by various Republican proxies about Davis's quarterly fundraising, just rather hollow explanations by the candidate to the district press about how the candidate couldn't woo 160 delegates and significant dollars at the same time.

Those who wish to help Walz, either by contributing, or by joining his growing grassroots army, should visit the campaign's web site to learn more.

It's not as if the First is the only congressional battle in the state. The GOP has its hands full, after all.  Roll Call's assessments for the Third and the Sixth:

3rd district

Open seat: Jim Ramstad (R)

is retiring

Outlook: Tossup

Ramstad’s retirement is a major opportunity for Democrats, who have been salivating over his district for years. While this suburban district leans slightly to the right in presidential elections, Ramstad, a moderate, always won by large margins.

Republicans settled early on their nominee: state Rep. Erik Paulsen, a longtime member of the Legislature who so far has boasted great fundraising numbers. However, insiders see him as more conservative than Ramstad, and that could come into play in the general election.

Democrats initially had three candidates going for the nomination, but the party in April endorsed attorney and Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia. Early on in the race, it appeared that state Sen. Terri Bonoff (D) was going to get her party’s nod, but Madia came from behind with a lot of grass-roots support to win the nomination at the 3rd district convention.

Unlike Paulsen, Madia is fairly untested as a candidate. In the end, the candidate that appears the most moderate — and the most like Ramstad — likely will take this district in one of the most competitive races in the country this cycle.

6th district

Incumbent: Michele Bachmann (R)

1st term (50 percent)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Freshman Bachmann might have an easier time winning this time around, but it may not be of her own doing. Bachmann has made at least two well-publicized gaffes since taking office in 2007.

Democrats have chosen former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg as their candidate this cycle, and he’s more conservative than 2006 Democratic nominee Patty Wetterling. The two Democrats also ran against each other in the 2006 nomination battle.

It’s possible that the 6th district might still be too conservative for a Democrat to take it. But if any Democrat is conservative enough to win, it’s Tinklenberg.

Interesting.  Now we know why the Republican Party of Minnesota uses the Ron Carey Press Release Template.

And we don't look for Steve Sarvi's campaign to slumber in the Second.  Rather, should the Iraq War veteran raise significant funds this quarter, the race will be a sleeper that could yield a November surprise for John Kline. Kline's COH is half that held by Walz or Bachmann, and, like Bachmann, Kline is playing absentee representative.

The Big E tells readers how to help Sarvi in the MN-02:  Steve Sarvi - Post-DFL-endorsement interview.  We've met Steve, he's a good guy, pretty down to earth and informed.

For an earlier Roll Call assessment on MN-01, see our post Roll Call: "Republicans failed to recruit a top-notch candidate to face Walz". Update: via the Minnesota Monitor, The Rothenberg Report rates MN-01 as "leans Democratic." 

Comments

[MinnesotaCentral]

Reading the Tom Cole NRCC “we got no money” story in context of the Roll Call story tells me that the unmentioned John Kline is the one in trouble. Kline’s success in the past two elections has been based on voter apathy for the Democratic candidates while he carried the political football for George Bush (remember he previously carried the “nuclear” football for Reagan). Well, now George Bush is radioactive. McCain’s tax proposals and foreign policy statements will be easily supported by Kline …. This year the voters in the Second District have the potential to hear from a competent military veteran with public service experience offering a better voice for the district. Kline has less than half the money that Gutknecht had for the 2006 campaign and all the baggage of an out-of-sync entrenched Congressman. If Sarvi can harness the “Walz-energy” that was introduced to First District voters during the 2006 campaign, he should have a solid shot. Especially if the Presidential candidates can schedule a visit to the District … imagine an Obama rally in Northfield or Red Wing talking about SCHIP … while McCain could hold a town hall meeting in Eagan (hey, Kline might actually show up) with some of the corporation executives that McCain wants to cut their taxes. What a contrast that would be !

Here are two questions to ponder :
Will the Republican Convention help to brand Kline tighter to the Bush legacy?
Will the 527 groups be forced run TV ads in the spendy Twin Cities market to support Kline ?