Rothenberg Report move favors Tim Walz in Minnesota First

Via Polinaut, we learn that the Rothenberg Report has moved ("# = Moved benefiting Democrats) Minnesota's First Congressional District into the Democrat Favored column from the Leans Democratic placement earlier in July.

We'll see if we can dig up the full report (subscription needed) and post select excerpts here.

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The next fundraising deadline for reports to the FEC is August 20.

Update: For those who might wish to dismiss this shift for perceived "liberal bias," the Swing State Project today examines Rothenberg's pro-GOP slant.

Comments

[MinnesotaCentral]

So according to Rothenberg, all that matters are incumbency, money and prior elections history. So based on that Bachmann is not on the list since she is from the old Kennedy district and has lots of money. Walz was on the list since he represents an old Republican district. But there is one more thing that must be factored in … visibility. Incumbency and visibility are two different things. Walz has been very visible IN the district and people know the name. Bachmann also has been visible … but more so on the national stage; people know her and either agree with her views or not.

But let’s look at John Kline. He is rarely in the papers or on the TV, doesn’t issue press releases, and has no prominent standout issue. Yes, he’s got money but in an expensive TV market, so he will have to spend it. Yes, his district has elected him, but it also elected Klobuchar and trending DFL in the legislature.

I doubt Rothenberg knows very much of what goes on in the Second District, he’s just reading his statistics. IF the DCCC were smart, they would realize that Bachmann will live or die by her own account, but that Kline could be taken out with just a little money and volunteers to educate voters on Kline’s votes and positions.

The wild card in all this is who the DFL will nominate for Senate and how that will affect other races ? Will Independents be willing to vote for moderate Coleman and switch to support Tinklenberg, Sarvi, Madia, and Walz ?