Update 9/16: We had noted in the post below that Davis had run an ad on cable, and in another post, that he had yet to make a broadcast television/cable buy as of last Thursday. In today's post, Back to the future: more brilliance from Doc Davis, we observe how a link dated yesterday makes it appear to the casual visitor that Davis has a television ad running. Click on the link, however, and it's just the same old misleading cable ad asking for votes in the Sept. 9 Republican primary. Paging Dr. Emmett Brown! [end update]
One index of a race's "hotness" is the coin national committees and sympathetic allies allocate to the contest.
Witness these posts at MnPublius and Minnesota Campaign Report about ads the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) created and aired in the toss-up between Iraq War vet Ash Madia and conservative Republican Erik Paulsen. According to MNCR, the national committees are allowed to spend "about $82,000" on coordinated expenses with each candidate campaign committee, and the NRCC (the "Rebublican" committee according to the ad) is spending its coordinated funds on the air.
There's also been an independent expenditure mailing for Madia and against Paulsen by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).
The GOP likes to talk up the race in the First as highly competitive. Have it put its money where its mouth is? How do things look in Southern Minnesota compared to the race in the suburban Third?
We're not finding a lot of activity for this district in the FEC's databases for independent expenditures and electioneering communication ads from national groups. Overall, the allies of either side are not investing enormous sums in the district that we can tell. The action has been focused so far on the candidate committees themselves.
We're a curious what kind of cash Davis has on hand following his primary win over Senator Day. How much did he spend between August 20 and September 9?
Davis bought time on cable channels with an ad directed toward primary voters and a number of mailings went out from the campaign, our friends in the district say. At the end of the pre-primary filing period that ended on August 20, Davis's campaign had $311,084 in hand, with debts of $125,576, nearly all of it incurred from loans the candidate made to his own campaign. Without the latest loan, the campaign would have looked moribund, as it took in only $95,397.50 in contributions between July 1 and August 20.
The Republican Party of Minnesota spent $9035.76 on September 3 for designing, mailing, and printing material on Davis's behalf. It spent $3739.50 on GOTV phone calls on September 7 on Davis's behalf. That's a total of $12,775.26 of independent expenditures on the part of the RPM for Davis so far in the cycle. The NRCC didn't pump any large contributions that showed up in the pre-primary report or in 48-hour reports.
We'll be curious to see what the monthly reports from both the NRCC and DCCC reveal about coordinated spending in MN-01. The reports come out on September 20.
Walz is airing a second television ad, and reportedly has reserved time on stations and cable across the district. His campaign had $1,263,829 cash on hand on August 20 and no debts. During the pre-primary period between July 1 and August 20, Walz received $246,831.45 from his chief committee and $2900.00 from an authorized committee, for a total of $249,731.45.
Independent expenditures on Walz's behalf? We searched reports filed with the FEC. The SEIU reported printing and mailing on Walz's behalf was done on August 25 and paying canvas staff and expenses on September 1. The union's political committee put the bulk of its money toward independent grassroots organizing.
The current reporting period ends on September 30, with reports due on October 15. Because of the late date of Minnesota's primary, the "October Quarterly" reports that the state's federal candidates have to file will cover contributions and spending from August 21 to the end of September.
Our understanding is that many important funding decisions by the parties, caucus committees and other independent groups are made by looking at the races on October 15, and they'll be combing the pre-primary reports with the report for the filing period that ends on the 30th.
Right now, Walz enjoys a healthy cash on hand lead as well as the $250,000 to $95,000 contribution edge.
If you want to make sure that Walz continues to keep that edge, please contribute here by September 30. And remember, a grassroots-style campaign doesn't live on air time alone: volunteer for Walz's campaign here.
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