At Minnesota Central, the ever-insightful McPherson Hall writes in Davis Poll Reveals Challenger’s Threat:
Dr. Brian Davis, Republican candidate for Minnesota’s First District, has commissioned a poll that reveals incumbent Congressman Tim Walz with a commanding 50-32 lead.
The obvious question is why did Davis waste his money on a poll . . .[Ollie's note: we think the NRCC may have wasted some of its money on the poll too]
Let’s look at what Walz has going for him.
Being a former high school teacher, Walz used his “ student council ” to energize the district in 2006 and with 22% of the state’s population being between 18-29; this bodes well for Walz in 2008.
Walz has gotten the endorsement from the NRA. Statewide 41.7 households are gun owners.
Walz was a prime proponent in the passage of the Farm Bill (despite a veto from President Bush). The First District is primarily a rural district. Davis’ performance during the FarmFest debate was less than stellar as the crowd seemed to enjoy Walz’s defense of his support for farmers using wit and knowledge to his advantage.
Walz has listened to Veterans and brought their issues to the forefront during his first term. 10.5% of Minnesota’s households have a veteran.
Statewide, there are more DFLers (Dems) (38% in 2004) than Republicans (35%) leaving 27% as Independents. The inference is that Walz is getting support from Independents while Davis hasn’t even gotten all the Republicans ( not surprising when State Senator Dick Day amassed a third of the votes in the recent primary election. )
Over at the Post Bulletin, Matt Stolle comes as close as any journalist to drinking the Kool-Aid for Brian Davis, though even he doesn't swallow in Davis says recent poll is good news, Walz camp disagrees.
For an example of a reporter who raised this story beyond the "one said--the other said" level, we recommend that readers check out Mark Fischenich's Six weeks left, Walz leads Davis from yesterday's Mankato Free Press. Fischenich went beyond barbs tossed back and forth, and compared an independent poll from 2006 with Davis's internal poll from this cycle. It's quite revealing.
The PB's Stolle begins:
Republican challenger Brian Davis is pointing to a new poll released by his campaign as a sign of DFL Congressman Tim Walz's growing vulnerability in a race with 42 days to go.
That survey shows Walz now polling at 50 percent, a four-point drop from a previous poll conducted a month earlier, even as Davis rose in the polls over the same period, from 27 percent to 32 percent.
The 50-percent mark is often seen as a red line by political analysts below which an incumbent is considered to be in possibly dangerous territory. But the poll still shows Walz with a significant 50 percent to 32 percent lead over the Mayo Clinic doctor. [emphasis added]
He ends:
So far, Walz, at least in the eyes of political analysts, looks to be in a comfortable position. The Cook Political Report, for instance, ranks the race as "likely Democratic." That means the seat is not considered competitive, but has the potential to become engaged.
Somewhere in the middle:
The data also suggests that if voters were given the choice between a Republican and a Democrat for Congress on a generic ballot, 44 percent would prefer a Democrat, while 39 percent would prefer a Republican, with 16 percent undecided. Given the margin of error, that makes the seat a toss-up, the pollsters at the Tarrance Group say.
Ah yes. The hypothetical "seat" is a toss-up. Here's where the bait and switch happens. The actual race according to the poll (if we're to accept a sample of 300 with a MOE of 5.8)?
But the poll still shows Walz with a significant 50 percent to 32 percent lead over the Mayo Clinic doctor.
As Walz's campaign manager pointed out:
But the Walz camp argues otherwise. Schmitter says Davis is not even polling as high as what a generic Republican is getting in the district.
The GOP likes to claim that the First is "conservative", and yet the Davis/NRCC poll shows that it's a statistical dead heat between Obama and McCain:
The poll shows GOP Sen. John McCain with a 45 percent-to-43 percent edge over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, with 9 percent undecided. That ranks it as a toss-up, given the poll's 5.8 percent margin of error.
Davis's poll should not bring smiles to elephant faces. For DFLers, it should provide an extra incentive to get out, door knock and call. The district is not only Walz's for the taking, it may finally have turned blue on the Presidential level as well.
This isn't entirely surprising. Not only did Walz and Klobuchar win in 2006, but more DFLers represent the district in the state legislature than do Republicans. Nationally, OBama is polling better in rural areas than Kerry, Craig Crawford writes in Obama's Amazing Rural Opportunity.
Back at Minnesota Central, McPherson Hall thinks that Republicans may be more motivated, while Walz supporters will be lulled into complacency by the numbers Davis released:
Walz’ main challenge is still APATHY. Voters may feel comfortable with Walz and not bother showing up at the polls. Conversely, the Republicans have reasons to be motivated. The anti-Obama crowd is further re-enforced by the anti-Franken voters. With the potential of budget problems at the state level where, all House seats are on the ballot, the Republicans will want to have their voices heard. The First District voted for Republicans solidly in 2004 and may do so again.
Davis’ publishing of this poll may have more of an impact to suppress Walz voters and give Davis a squeaker victory. Be warned … Apathy is the real challenger.
You heard the man. If you're looking to have progressive values take the day in November, get off your duff and volunteer for Walz (and Obama, Franken and state house candidates--the coordinated DFL sign up is here) and contribute as well to make sure Congressman Walz can keep getting his message to voters.
Tell them the heifer sent you.
In more serious news, it doesn't look like Minnesota's congressional delegation is going to write Bush a blank check to bailout those Wall Street fat cats who gamed the financial system into its present dismal state while engorging their own wealth. The PiPress reports in Bush rescue proposal falls flat among Minnesotans:
Minnesota's political leaders flatly reject President Bush's call for an unrestricted $700 billion financial bailout.
But fearing economic calamity, many remain open to some type of costly financial bailout — provided it includes tougher regulation, limits exorbitant Wall Street salaries and gives taxpayers a stake in rescued companies.
For the First:
First District: Republican Brian Davis, challenging Rep. Tim Walz, said he'd be "very unlikely" to support any bailout.
"Seems to me that Congress and the administration have hit the panic button, and this could result in a 20-year problem," he said.
Note how Davis blames Congress first for a proposal that's coming from the White House. This from a guy who, when interviewed by the Fillmore County Journal in late July, compared George W. Bush with Harry Truman.
The PiPress continues:
Walz issued a statement that didn't say whether he'd support or reject a bailout plan, but he did urge caution and said he hoped to protect middle-class Americans.
"We've seen before what happens when Congress allows itself to be backed into a corner by President Bush and forced to make a hasty decision with long-term consequences," Walz said. "We need answers before Congress votes on the bailout."
Given the quality of the answers the administration has given in the past, we hope Walz stays skeptic, and shows more of the spine he grew in this year's FISA votes. The MinnPost reports Bailout package a slam-dunk? Far from it, state's bipartisan delegation says. KEYC-TV reports Pawlenty 'Reluctant Supporter' of Wall Street Bailout. Oh, good. CQ Politics asks: Bailout Bill: An Election Season 'Stink Bomb?' October 2 may provide an opportunity to learn more about where the candidates stand on the bailout, when they meet for the first time since Worthington's King Turkey Day. Those who wish to attend the first Walz-Davis debate should register here. Sponsored by the Rochester Area Chamber of Commerce, the cost is $20 for RACC members and $30 for all others. The focus: The debate will allow our membership an opportunity to hear first-hand
where the candidates stand on the national issues of importance to the
business community. The debate will take place from noon - 1:30 p.m.
Ramada Hotel & Conference Center; 1517 16th St. SW. Veterans Today picks up on a Partnership for Veterans Health Care Budget Reform press release in Historic Legislation To End Delays in Veterans Health Care Funding. The Walz nugget: American Legion National Commander David K.
Rehbein, also speaking for the Partnership, praised the bill’s
bipartisan cosponsors: Senators Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Russ Feingold
(D-WI), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Tim Johnson (D-SD), Lisa Murkowski
(R-AK), John Thune (R-SD), Ted Stevens (R-AK), and John Rockefeller
(D-WV in the Senate; Congressmen Walter Jones (R-NC), Michael Michaud
(D-ME), Phil Hare (D-IL), and Tim Walz (D-MN) in the Senate. “We
applaud all of the bill’s sponsors who have taken the lead in Congress
to create a lasting legacy for our veterans by reforming the budget
process to ensure that veterans health care funding is sufficient,
timely and predictable,” Rehbein said. The new legislation,
called the “Veterans Health Care Budget Reform Act,” would authorize
advance appropriations for Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health
care programs one year in advance of the start of the fiscal year, an
idea favored by more than 80 percent of American voters, according to a
survey released today by the Disabled American Veterans.
The House OKs plan for Great Lakes water to stay put. The bill passed 390-25. We'd like to know what was on Representative McCollum's mind when she voted against it--the only member of Minnesota's delegation to do so. Last night on the Daily Show, former President Clinton talked about how concentrating investment in housing and mortgages in the early part of this decade helped led to the mess Wall Street is in now. He suggested that investment in new technologies and renewable energy would have left the nation stronger. The Mankato Free Press editorial board thinks it's still the time to Nurture renewable energy. At the Mountain Lake Observer/Butterfield Advocate, editor Kris Langland looks at the economy in Which cut is deepest? Our favorite Minuteman, Ron Branstner, held another immigration reduction meeting in Austin last week according to the Austin Herald's Media, Austin history discussed at immigration forum. A taste: There were mirrors, but no smoke at Thursday night’s forum on immigration issues at Oak Park Mall. Less than 30 people attended the forum in the mirrored community meeting room. The two-hour session began with the playing of a video, which most people ignored. . . . Since Brian Davis thinks (well, at least back in late July when he was chasing the Republican base) that Bush can be compared to Truman, we close with the Daily Show's John Oliver presenting a somewhat different analogy:
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