We're nursing a cold this morning, so no Black Friday shopping for us on a sunny prairie day.
Between sneezes, we've been thinking about the 2010 election. During the winter of 2006-2007, there was no shortage of possible Republican candidates whose names were touted as possible challengers to what was thought by many to be a vulnerable freshman Democrat who won by a fluke in an R+1 district.
What a difference two years and a 62.5 percent landslide in a three-way race has made in the way people talk about this district. Or don't talk about it, as the case may be.
By this time in 2006, Polinaut had speculated about Dick Day for Congress? By January 18, 2007, Roll Call had published a list of possible candidates that included Day, Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau, state Rep. Randy Demmer, current state senate minority leader Dave Senjam and state Sen. Julie Rosen.
Walz's decisive win has kept chatter to a minimum, with most speculation running about whether he'll make a bid for governor in 2010, leaving an open seat. Unless Brian Davis ran again (in which case even Ken Tschumper could probably hold on the DFL seat in congress), the race in the First Would be a true toss up, with both sides of the aisle having strong contenders.
Will Davis try again? Sources in the Mayo system say no, suggesting that the oncologist has gone back to doing what he does best: treating people stricken with prostate cancer. Some suggest that unless his assets are far greater that Davis let on when protesting he wasn't the "millionaire doctor" depicted in Walz press releases, Davis simply can afford another of the extended leaves of absences need to campaign in the 300-mile-long district.
A Republican associate in the district counters that John Kline, always a Davis advocate, is urging the medicial city doc to try again. For now. the Brian Davis campaign web site lives only as in Google cache; the official blog persists, its last post dated November 7.
One final post-2010 consideration. As strong a contender as Fairmont's Julie Rosen might be against Walz or a generic Democrat, we suspect that she might look at the coming redistricting and turn down the chance in a year when she must again secure her state senate seat. It's likely that Minnesota will lose a congressional seat, and thus there's no guaranting that the western part of the district remains within the First.
Prior to 2002, Rosen's Martin County was in the old Second. It could easily be put into a "new" Second, or even into the Seventh. It's likely that all of the SE corner of Minnesota stays in the First, so we look for the GOP contenders to come from this most populous part of the district. We've heard the names of Rep. Greg Davids and RACC President John Wade bandied about.
Anyone else hearing other names?
If Rep. Walz decides to run for governor, bank on Rep-elect Davids going for his CD1 seat. As a member of the minority without a committee chair, HD31B will no longer satiate his appetite for campaign funds. Pay attention to how much scent-marking Davids does in Rochester and Winona. Winona is important because if Walz stays put, Davids may enlist his MCCL buddies to take on Sharon Ropes. SD31 is twice as big a pond as HD31B, Davids is a WSU alumnus and he would enjoy shaking the tree over there.
Posted by: Frank Wright | November 28, 2008 at 06:26 PM