Minnesota Public Radio's Mark Zdechlick reports in Demmer wins GOP endorsement in 1st District:
Minnesota State University Mankato political science professor Joe Kunkel doesn't believe Walz is as vulnerable as Republicans believe. Kunkel noted that Walz was elected and re-elected with support from moderates, and even some conservatives, along with Democrats.
"The race overall is going to be a test of how big the Republican tide is going to be," said Kunkel. "We expect some Republican tide and certainly Democratic losses, but I think it's going to take a pretty big tide to get Walz out of there."
The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting Walz for defeat. That could be critical for Randy Demmer, who, including loans to his own campaign, had raised less than one-tenth of the money Walz had through the end of last month.
Listeners could come away with the notion that Demmer is in better position financially than he is.
Because the loans to the committee are transferred from Demmer's unsuccessful 2008 campaign, they were part of the 2007-2008 election fundraising cycle, when Demmer loaned and spent the money for his unsuccessful bid for endorsement. They remain on the committee's books, however, as they have not been repaid. Demmer's committee finished the 2007-2008 cycle with $99.25 in the bank and $135,150.00 of debt owed to the candidate.
To create more accurate picture of fundraising, Minnesota Public Radio and other reporters should compare fundraising in the 2009-2010 cycle. By April 1, Demmer had raised $71,592.00 in the new cycle, spent $52,275.62, and had $19,424.63 cash in the bank, with $135,150 worth of loans remained from the last cycle. Until he decided to jump into the race in late November, Demmer did not raise money, did not campaign, and did not appear to make efforts to retire his debt.
Walz, who started out the cycle with relatively little money ($30528.16) and no debt, has maintained an active committee since the beginning of the cycle.He has raised $1,028,097.10 in the cycle, spent $497,572.98 and had $595,541.24 in the bank on April 1.
Yes, Demmer raised less than 1/10th of what Walz has taken in, but that comparison pales beside the contrast between their cash on hand and the disparity between the campaign infrastructure Walz has built since winning in 2008.
Walz now has 30 times the cash Demmer has on hand, or put another way: Demmer has 3.3 percent of what Walz has to work with.
Nor has Walz tapped out his potential donor base. Walz raised $60,451.22 in small contributions in this latest quarter alone, meaning that he can continue to draw from that well. Moreover, given the nature of some of the sorts of attacks that were leveled at the popular congressman on Saturday, it's likely that the campaign will be able to raise even more money.
It's not as if the congressman's campaign staff will stop spending money, nor will national Democrats cede the seat if the NRCC does indeed beginning to invest in the Demmer campaign.
Moreover, Demmer has to build a campaign on the ground from scratch. One friend observed that none of the Hayfield Republican's paid campaign staff lived in the First; nearly all of Walz's campaign staff lives in the district.Will the same be the case with Demmer's campaign in the future?
Image: Randy Demmer as the No-Whammie Man from IDHA's Demmer takes per-diem to attend candidate school in D.C., misleads public about votes missed,a detailed analysis of the votes he missed while attending NRCC campaign school. I suspect DJ Danielson of retouching that photo. Used with permission of IDHA.
I will see Randy at our 35th High School Class Reunion this summer. Guess I'll need to get a big 'Walz for Congress' button to wear to the event.
Posted by: Michael | Apr 19, 2010 at 12:08 PM