A morning tweet exchange by a couple of political operatives on the right and left puzzled over the similarities (or lack there of) between Tim Walz's 2006 and Randy Demmer's 2010 prospects at this point in the cycle.
Good question, for another week has gone by and Demmer has yet to get on the radar of the NRCC's "Young Guns" program.
How does this contrast with national attention for Walz in May 2006? Nexis provides a fair picture of Walz in May 2006--and can be used as a measure for assessing the attention Dememr in getting now. (Sorry for the frequent lack of links, since these documents are from Nexis, which is subscription-only).
Congressional Quarterly Weekly noted in an April 22 article, "The Midwest: Competition Fierce in Many Districts" under "Republican Favored":
Minnesota 1 -- Gil Gutknecht (R)
2004 vote for winner: 60 percent
Although Gutknecht in 2004 won his sixth term by 24 points, Democrats argue that the state's southern tier of counties is more competitive than that figure suggests; Bush won it in 2004 by only 4 points. Democrats have an interesting candidate in high school teacher Tim Walz, who rose to sergeant major during 24 years in the Army National Guard.
Earlier in the week, on April 19, The Hill reported in "Incumbent Dems play mentor role":
. . .With polls showing that 2006 could be a pivotal year for Democrats, the DCCC has started its mentoring program earlier than in past years and has been more systematic in its implementation, both hallmarks of Chairman Rahm Emanuel's aggressive approach. The DCCC hopes that the safe incumbents can bring an early boost to challengers' campaigns. The mentors bring policy experience, political acumen and a stable of fundraising contacts.
. . .The DCCC has paired Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Fla.) with John Pavich, challenging Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.), and Tim Walz, a challenger to Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.).
The day before, the DCCC sent out a press release, "Democratic Candidates Have Momentum Going into 2nd Quarter":
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued the following news release:
Today, as campaign finance reports come out, it is clear that Democratic candidates for Congress have momentum going into the 2nd quarter of 2006. Voters across the country are sick of the Republican status quo and responding overwhelmingly to the Democratic message of new priorities. This news comes in addition to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee being in its strongest position ever. The American people are hungry for change and these numbers show they are also willing to do something about it.
"This was a banner quarter for Democratic candidates. The American people are looking for new priorities and are choosing change over more of the same status quo that has set this nation in the wrong direction," said John Lapp, executive director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "From stagnant wages to skyrocketing gas prices and prescription drug costs, Americans are sick and tired of the pay-to-play politics that has created corruption, scandal, and incompetence throughout the Republican Congress and the Bush administration."
THE DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE IN THE FIRST QUARTER:
Democratic challengers outpace Republican incumbents:
* (CT-02) Joe Courtney outraises Rob Simmons by $52,000
* (CT-04) Diane Farrell outraises Chris Shays by $160,000
* (IL-10) Dan Seals outraises Mark Kirk by $26,000
* (MI-08) James Marcinkowski outraises Mike Rogers by $10,000
* (MN-01) Tim Walz outraises Gil Gutknetcht [sic] by $22,000. . .
Walz's fundraising at the close 0f Q! 2006 provided a startling contrast with Demmer's position at the end of Q1 2010. Not only did Walz outraise the incumbent, his cash gap was around $2000 greater than what Demmer had in the bank at the end of March this year.
But to parallel Walz’s 2006 path, Demmer would also have to raise as much money as the incumbent and he’s not matching Walz’s pace from four years ago.
In first quarter of 2006, Walz actually out-raised Gutknecht — just one of 12 Democratic challengers nationwide who managed to do that. Walz raised $127,000 that quarter — topping Gutknecht by $22,000.
In 2010, Walz raised just under $313,000 in the first three months compared to $52,000 for Demmer.
It's quite a difference.
On March 7, 2006, the Hill noted that John Kerry was raising money for Walz:
Sen. John Kerry's fundraising machine has collected $250,000 in contributions for several Iraq war veterans running for Congress. The www.johnkerry.com website boasts that he raised the money for Illinois Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth and two unnamed Pennsylvania Democratic war veterans in just two days, March 4th and 5th.
This time around, Kerry's fundraisers are asking for support for Tim Walz, a 24-year veteran of the National Guard who is challenging Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) for the 1st District of Minnesota, and another veteran, Jay Fawcett, who is running for Colorado's open 5th Congressional District. Rep. Joel Hefley (R-Colo.) announced his retirement last month. Republicans have held that seat for the past 20 years.
The Washington Post had earlier reported that Kerry's appeal raised $52,000 in the first four hours of the drive for both candidates. A March 2, 2006, item in Roll Call noted that the Walz campaign had hired Kerry Greeley, a veterans Massachusetts campaign hand. Roll Call noted on January 26, 2006 in "Both Parties Have Missed Opportunities In House Districts":
Rep. Gil Gutknecht (Minn.). National Democratic strategists have recently rediscovered Gutknecht's southern Minnesota district, with the emergence of geography teacher Tim Walz, an Iraq war veteran [sic*] , as a candidate. But it was a long time coming, even though a Democrat held the seat prior to Gutknecht and even though the district gave Bush just 51 percent of the vote in 2004. The largely rural district has a "blue" enclave around Rochester, the home of the Mayo Clinic.
Jumping back into 2005, Roll Call reported on December 21 that Walz had gotten a small contribution from Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots PAC. Max Cleland endorsed Walz on November 11--and so it goes, a trickle that gathered into a stream, then a wave in November 2006.
And using the same tool to look at Randy Demmer since he first entered the race in late 2009? Of the 103 articles that a Nexis search for "Randy Demmer" of all news since November 1, 2009, only 9 are from national venues. Most articles appear in district dailies like the Austin Herald, Mankato Free Press and the Rochester Post Bulletin.
The most recent national appeared in the National Journal 's Congress Daily article, Majority Makers, which asked the question, "What exactly is a swing district?" The publication answered its own question:
Looking back at the last big GOP wave election -- 1994 -- Republicans picked up 52 seats. Of those, 11 seats stayed in GOP hands until the next Democratic wave cycles of 2006 and 2008.
These are the true swing seats, since they're the ones that followed the national mood in 1994 and 2006 or 2008.
But we can narrow those 11 down to six super-swing districts. Those are the GOP seats -- among those that were taken from Democrats in 1994 -- that fell to the first Democratic wave of 2006.
Times have changed since 1994 and 2006, but if history holds, these districts might surprise and flip back to the GOP in the event a Republican wave develops in 2010.
That means Reps.Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz.,Joe Donnelly, D-Ind.,Tim Walz, D-Minn., andZack Space, D-Ohio, should be on notice. In addition, the open seats of Senate hopefulsPaul Hodes, D-N.H. and Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind., also represent solid pickup opportunities for Republicans
On notice? Of course: Walz campaign manager Richard Carlbom likes to say that Walz always runs like he's 10 points down. The publication looks first at the First in its more detailed assessment of the swing districts:
Of these six seats, Walz has the easiest path to re-election.
He's got nearly $600,000 in the bank, not particularly imposing considering most of his vulnerable colleagues have built up million-dollar war-chests.
His opponent, GOP state Sen. Randy Demmer, raised just $60,000 in the last quarter, and had just $19,000 in the bank. He doesn't really have a track record of building a war chest, either, considering he ran for the party nod in 2008, and raised less than $90,000 from donors before being defeated in the party convention.
But of all the options Republicans had in the primary, Demmer was the best. He faced several candidates who had a hard edge and who had enough baggage to make a long-shot bid against Walz even longer. Demmer's moderate style, if not policy positions, gives him a chance, although he's still got a tough battle.
Prior to that item at the end of April, there's Pawlenty sends cash to Demmer in the April 20 Politico:
Minnesota State Rep. Randy Demmer's campaign to unseat Democratic Rep. Tim Walz got some assistance from Gov. Tim Pawlenty PAC, taking a donation from the governor after winning the state GOP's endorsement over the weekend. Demmer currently has less than $20,000 on hand for the campaign, compared with $600,000 in reserve for Walz.
That's not particularly likely to get Demmer a bounce among the district's Tea Party conservatives angry about bailouts (which Walz voted against). Bluestem pointed out in From hedge funds making hay to Hayfield: bailouts, campaign bucks and bamboozlement, a significant portion of the Q1 2010 money in Pawlenty's PAC came from bankers, including one hedge fund firm that received TARP funds--and whose executive and Pawlenty contributor received a hefty bonus. Oops.
The Frontrunner noted the Demmer endorsement on April 19. On April 5, Human Events touted the campaign of Jim Hagedorn, who dropped out first in the endorsement battle a few weeks later.
Before that, researchers have to go back to January 25, 2010, for a Congressional Quarterly Weekly review of races in the Midwest. The summary on the First under "Likely Democratic":
MINNESOTA 1 -- Tim Walz, D
2008: Walz 63%, Brian J. Davis (R) 33%
Walz, a teacher and National Guardsman, used everyman appeal to upset six-term Republican Gil Gutknecht in 2006, then easily deflected Davis' 2008 bid. Still, this rural district has a big enough conservative base that several Republicans are already running: state Rep. Randy Demmer; former state Rep. Allen Quist, who lost for governor in 1994; Jim Hagedorn, son of former Minnesota Rep. Tom Hagedorn; and veteran Frank McKinzie. Some in the GOP would like state Sen. Julie Rosen to join the race, but she says she's happy with her current office.
And so it goes. There's little indication that the NRCC is as actively involved in this race as it was in Walz's 2006 bid at this time. Perhaps there are NRCC press releases lining email and real world trash. Whatever it is, the message isn't getting through. However, it's likely Walz will keep running the way he did in 2006 and 2008. While the DCCC and national Democratic leaders like Kerry, Feingold and Cleland were paying attention to the Walz race early on, the race was not listed as "Emerging" until September 18 and Walz didn't get a spot on the coveted "Red to Blue" list until mid October. However, for now, the buzz simply isn't there for Demmer in the way it was for Walz in the first half of 2006, and in which the DCCC touted Walz's fundraising. The NRCC has yet to be able to do the same for Demmer--and the names of nationally known Republicans are yet to be connected with the Hayfield Republican's campaign. It's a far cry from the help Walz had been getting for months in the 2005-2006 cycle.
*Walz is not an Iraq war veteran; it was a constant struggle for the campaign (and now congressional office) to correct this misreporting on the part of the press. Republicans were quick then, as now, to try to pin lazy reporting on the Walz campaign itself.
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