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Nov 19, 2012


Archer Dem

Max Hailperin can correct me if I'm wrong, but i calculated the odds of a Cunniff lead post-reduction using a hypergeometric distribution function. I calculated it in two cases: for 32 ballots and for 35 ballots. For 32 ballots we would need to pull at least 17 Franson ballots for Cunniff to take the lead. That gives a 26.455% chance of a Cunniff lead. For 35 ballots it is more interesting as it presents the possibility of a tie. A Cunniff win would occur with a maximum of 16 of his ballots being pulled, which occurs 31.8007% of the time. A tie would require exactly 17 Cunniff ballots and 18 Franson ballots to be pulled. The odds of this happening are 10.9358%.

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