When the first round of ballots was counted, there was no contest, the Mankato Free Press and New Ulm Journal report. Allen Quist, who last held public office in the 1980s, was endorsed by the scant dozens of delegates who turned up last night in an abandoned movie theater in Mankato.
How likely is Quist to win a ticket to St. Paul on the logic he used to persuade those delegates?
Mankato Free Press political reporter Mark Fischenich writes in Quist wins Republican endorsement in House race:
Retired St. Peter farmer Allen Quist, who served in the state House in the 1980s before a series of unsuccessful runs for the governor's office and Congress, easily won the Republican endorsement Thursday night for a special election to fill a vacant seat in the state House. . . .
Held in the vacated movie theater in Mankato Place, the convention was far from a thriller. Just 41 delegates showed up, filling less than half of the 90-plus delegate slots available. . . .
And he told the delegates he would be their best bet to win back the seat from Democrats because he has the name recognition, political organization and fundraising ability that will be key in a compressed special election campaign. . . .
Read the rest at the Free Press. Moniz at the New Ulm Journal notes the details in Quist wins Republican endorsement for House 19A. The battle won't be an easy one:
Quist may not be done with the Republican portion of the race. Golgart refused to confirm Thursday whether he would abide by the endorsement, stating he would decide in a few days.
Quist faces a challenge in 19A, which includes all of Nicollet County, a small portion of Mankato and part of Le Sueur County. November results show nearly 70 percent of voters are in DFL-leaning portions of St. Peter and North Mankato. The single biggest voting precinct, which contains 1,570 voters, includes Gustavus Adolphus College, which traditionally votes Democratic.
Quist said that prior DFL winners in 19A were Gustavus professors who inherently mobilized the student voters, so the absence of a professor and his own graduation from Gustavus may help him.
Julie Quist has already written in a post-November election that the college student vote is a problem for Quist, so perhaps they'll turn out beyond expectations for a special election to prove her right. Moniz continues:
Quist expects a tough campaign, but he feels his name recognition to be an advantage. He said he has his 2012 core campaign team still intact from his unsuccessful congressional run.
He hopes to raise the approximately $30,000 limit for the election, pledging to personally donate to his $5,000 limit. He said his list of congressional donors should help reach the goal. . . .
In press release celebrating the endorsement, the Quist campaign repeated a claim about Quist's electibility that Moniz has tweeted from the endorsing convention:
Quist noted that Special Elections are much like Primary Elections in that they are won by name ID and getting supporters out to vote. Quist won the August Primary in 19A by a margin of 16% over a sitting state senator. Quist said he has the team in place to contact those voters and get them to vote for him again in February.
This a curious stuff indeed, the sort of false analogy that could be readily held up as an example of the logical fallacy to bright sophomores in a high-school based PSEO English Composition I or Intro to Logic course anywhere in the state.
While the importance of name ID and GOTV are two likenesses between a special election and a primary, several distinct differences set them apart specifically in this election--and in general as well.
First--and the power of this difference cannot be overestimated--Allen Quist's opponent in the February 12 special election will not be a sitting state senator named Mike Parry.
Second, neither Quist nor Parry had a party's endorsement behind them in the August primary. As the recent record of special elections demonstrates, the DFL is much, much better at electing Democrats in special elections, especially in DFL-leaning districts, than the Republicans are in winning special elections.
Third, that party support--from a state party that is far more prosperous, united and campaign savvy than Quist's Republicans--will aid the DFLer who wins the primary in leveling the playing field as far as fundraising goes. It's unlikely that Quist will enjoy any sort of cash advantage--nor did Bachmann's fundraising list particularly respond to Allen Quist's recent congressional appeals. His campaign was largely self-financed.
Fourth, it's not as if the DFL House campaign talent has flown south with the hummingbirds. Representative Erin Murphy, who led the caucus campaign, is now majority leader. Much of the field talent remains in state, and it's likely that whomever is appointed to coordinate this gig can draw from that talent.
Finally, while the DFL candidate remains undecided, the bulk of the voters in the district live in the urban areas of the district: St. Peter, North Mankato, and Mankato. Moniz at the Journal points out:
Quist faces a challenge in 19A, which includes all of Nicollet County, a small portion of Mankato and part of Le Sueur County. November results show nearly 70 percent of voters are in DFL-leaning portions of St. Peter and North Mankato. The single biggest voting precinct, which contains 1,570 voters, includes Gustavus Adolphus College, which traditionally votes Democratic.
Since the popular mayor of St. Peter jumped in to the DFL contestant pool earlier in the week, Quist can't even bank on a lack of name recognition on the part of his hypothetical opponent. One is in his seventh year of public office in a high-population center.
Moreover, high name recognition can't be taken as high favorability. It's quite possible that the mere possibility of having Quist represent them in the state legislature might bring many district residents to the polls to crush that possibility.
While there is an IP candidate running, and he's a good man by all accounts, the IP simply doesn't have the juice to make the same sort of impact in a special election as it does in a down-ballot race in the general.
Quist's unfavorables in 19A aren't completely abstract. In the congressional race between Quist and Congressman Walz--Quist's home turf--Walz took 62.76 percent of the vote to Quist's 37.05 percent in Minnesota House District 19A, slightly moreof the vote that Amy Klobuchar recieved, and much more than the President's 52.25 percent win.
Quist name recognition might be a very powerful thing--but for yet another candidate pitted against him.
Cartoon: Ken Avidor's vision of Quist's return to St. Paul.
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