As Bluestem noted in Behold! the power of a false analogy: MN 19A GOP endorses Quist for Feb 12 special election, Allen Quist likes to compare the coming February 12, 2013 special election in Minnesota House District 19A to the results in that district in the August 2012 Republican congressional primary against Mike Parry.
Quist swept the district with 653 versus Parry's 465 votes, or 58.41 percent to 41.59 percent. Will the Republicans who supported Parry vote for Quist in the special election, or will there be lingering resentment? Would they form an important swing group?
Here's where the Parry Republicans live:
| NORTH MANKATO | 155 | 33% |
| ST PETER | 93 | 20% |
| LAKE PRAIRIE TOWNSHIP | 34 | 7% |
| CITY OF NICOLLET | 26 | 6% |
| NEW SWEDEN TOWNSHIP | 24 | 5% |
| MANKATO | 23 | 5% |
| LIME TWP | 16 | 3% |
| LAFAYETTE TOWNSHIP | 12 | 3% |
| OSHAWA TOWNSHIP | 11 | 2% |
| BELGRADE TOWNSHIP | 9 | 2% |
| BERNADOTTE TOWNSHIP | 9 | 2% |
| GRANBY TOWNSHIP | 7 | 2% |
| KASOTA | 7 | 2% |
| CITY OF LAFAYETTE | 7 | 2% |
| BRIGHTON TOWNSHIP | 5 | 1% |
| CITY OF COURTLAND | 5 | 1% |
| COURTLAND TOWNSHIP | 5 | 1% |
| TRAVERSE TOWNSHIP | 5 | 1% |
| NICOLLET TOWNSHIP | 4 | 1% |
| WEST NEWTON TOWNSHIP | 4 | 1% |
| MANKATO TWP | 2 | 0% |
| RIDGELY TOWNSHIP | 2 | 0% |
| KASOTA TWP. | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 465 |
While one third of the Parry Republicans live in North Mankato, Quist still took all but one precinct (P4) in the town. Nor did he win a single precinct in St. Peter, although he took Nicollet and New Sweden Township. Despite the low vote totals, these towns might be the places that Independence Party candidate Tim Gieseke (and possibly even the right DFLer to be determined on Saturday) might peel off votes.
It's worth remembering, however, that since both Parry and Quist ran without party endorsement, neither was able to bring any party resource to the primary contest. In February's special election, both candidates will be able to access their respective party's tools and volunteers. Quist was thumped in the Congressional race, with Walz taking 62.76 percent of the vote versus Quist's 37.05 percent. The local Republicans did not field candidates in the state senate and house races.
Given the dominance of the DFL in the State Senate District--and the need for the Republican Party to fight to retain St. Cloud's House District 14A now that a conservative IP candidate has jumped in, odds grow longer for the Quist candidacy.
The special election in House District 19A was called following the resignation of Terry Morrow to take a job in Chicago. The Republican Party has endorsed Allen Quist; the IP, Tim Gieseke.
Four Democratic candidates (Robin Courrier, Clark Johnson, Karl H. Johnson and Tim Strand) will abide by the DFL endorsing convention's decision on Saturday, with the unsuccessful candidates suspending their campaigns since the convention is scheduled after today's deadline for withdrawing from the ballot. The DFL primary will take place on January 29 and the special election will be held on Tuesday, February 12, 2013.
Map: HD19A
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