Update: As we predicted, Edina-based Senator Melisa Franzen (DFL-49). We've posted the junk postcard above. Not only is Franzen named (but not fined) in the DFL Senate Caucus party unit campaign violation report, but as Minnesota Public Radio reported in Money pours into Minn. legislative campaigns:
She happens to live in a Minnesota Senate district that is being fiercely fought over by Republican Rep. Keith Downey of Edina and DFL newcomer Melisa Franzen. It's the most expensive legislative race in the state, with the candidates, parties and outside political groups pumping nearly $600,000 into advertisements, polling and campaign literature there.
But while $600,000 may seem like a lot of money for a legislative race, it's just a sliver of the millions that have poured into campaigns across the state. An MPR News analysis of campaign finance reports shows that at least $10.4 million has been invested by candidates, parties, unions and political groups on both sides of the aisle to defend or challenge the Republican majorities at the State Capitol.
That figure is likely low. The analysis doesn't include spending done on extremely non-competitive races, nor does it include spending that's been done since Oct. 22, the last day included in the final campaign finance reports of the year. The true cost of this year's races won't be known until 2013 when final reports are filed.
And it doesn't include spending from outside political groups that don't have to report their activities.
Franzen won the swing district in a 52.74 percent to 47.15 percent split in 2012. [end update]
We've just learned from readers that voters in SD1 received Minnesota Action Network junkmail asking them to call Senator Leroy Stumpf (DFL-Plummer) and those in SD2 were asked to contact Senator Rod Skoe (DFL-Clearbrook), while voters in Senate District 24 are asked to contact freshman lawmaker Vicki Jensen (DFL-Owatonna).
Friends in solid DFL senate districts in the Twin Cities report that they haven't gotten Norm Coleman's junk mail, so until we learn otherwise, Bluestem will assume that the mail is targeted toward district where the senators are perceived as potentially vulnerable in 2016.
Let's look at each of these three districts to see why.
Minnesota Senate District 1
A farmer who has served in the Minnesota Senate since 1983, Stumpf won re-election in 2012 with 60.59 percent of the vote. Romney won in the 1A side of the senate district, as did Dan Fabian, though Senator Amy Klobuchar, Collin Peterson, and Stumpf. On the 1B side, while Romney and state representative Kiel won, their margins of victory were smaller than in the A side, and the DFLers did slightly better.
In 2014, statewide Republican candidates (with the exception of endorsed state supreme court candidate Michelle MacDonald) captured the vote in 1A, though Collin Peterson won in the congressional contest. In HD1B, U.S. Senator Al Franken and Congressionman Peterson won, as did incumbent DFL Attorney General Lori Swanson and nonpartisan justice David Lillehaug, while Republicans held Deb Kiel's state House seat, while winning the rest of the statewide partisan seats.
In short, it's a classic swing district.
Minnesota Senate District 2
Like Stumpf, Skoe isn't named in the campaign finance violation findings, but the competitive House District 2A race between winner Dave Hancock and DFL incumbent Roger Erickson salted the earth with $344,849 of outside group independent expenditures by the pre-general election reporting cut-off date of October 20.
In its October 20 pre-election report, the Minnesota Jobs Coalition reported spending $29,903.65 for independiture expenditures against Roger Erickson in the form of print and radio ads, so it's likely that voters in Skoe's district have heard about the spending on the new Senate legislative office building.
While Al Franken won the U.S. Senate race in HD2A, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jeff Johnson took that race; Collin Peterson triumphed in the MN07 part of the district, while Stewart Mills won in the section of 2A in the Eighth.
On the "B" side of SD2, Republican candidates swept the district winning every race with the exception of Collin Peterson in the MN07 slice of the district. Even Michelle MacDonald and Scott Newman won.
Skoe won in 2012 by 10 point margin, but Romney captured the hearts of voters in HD2A and HD2B, so there's no guaranteed DFL presidential election year turnout boost.
Minnesota Senate District 24
Unlike Skoe, Jensen serves in one of the districts that was named in the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board findings that led to a $100,000 fine for the DFL Senate Caucus committee.
Like Skoe, Jensen represents a senate district that saw a House seat flip from DFL control to a Republican state representative. Brian Daniels defeated Patti Fritz by just over 200 votes in House District 24B; the "A" side of the district was handily won by incumbent Waseca Republican John Petersburg.
The Owatonna insurance agency owner captured the open senate seat by just under 2000 votes in a hotly contested race in 2012. Long occupied by Republicans (think Dick Day), the spot opened when Mike Parry decided to seek the Republican endorsement for Minnesota's First Congressional District. Allen Quist won the primary.
Jensen, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar and Congressman Tim Walz won their 2012 races in 24A, while Republicans Romney took the presidential vote and Petersburg the state house race. On the 24B side, the results were along the same lines: Romney won a majority of the presidential vote, though Fritz held her state seat.
What are the other MAN targets?
From what we've learned so far, the postcards are going to swing districts and those served by senators named in the 2012 campaign finance violation (though not fined).
By district number, so far it's Leroy Stumpf (1), Rod Skoe (2), Lyle Koenen (17), Kevin Dahle (20), Vicki Jensen (24) and Jim Carlson (51). If this pattern of swing districts and/or "violation" districts holds, we'll anticipate learning that postcards were sent in districts represented by Kent Eken (4), Tom Saxhaug (5), Matt Schmit (21), Dan Sparks (27), Alice Johnson (37), Melisa Franzen (49), Susan Kent (53) and Greg Clausen (57).
In short, it will be a repeat of the rhetorical strategy of pinning the spin about spending and self-dealing that worked in the House races (with a heavy dose of placebaiting for the rural districts), spiced up with a couple of robust tosses from the campaign fine shaker.
We'll probably be treated with picture postcards of senators moving in to their new offices (or not, as the case may be).
Perhaps by then, a wealthy contributor can donate a trash can to Maynard's humble post office for our neighbors to dispose of their junkmail. We can only dream.
Earlier posts on the postcards:
Call MN Action Network & tell Norm Coleman to stop wasting rich people's money on junk mail
Call Norm Coleman and tell him to send art collectors, not junk mail, to Big Stone County
Photo: The mailing in Senator Melisa Franzen's Edina district.
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