In Climate change increases crop specialization risks in Midwest, study suggests, Forum Communications' Jonathan Knutson reports:
Specialization generally is beneficial in economics. But too much of anything, even economic specialization, may not be a good thing.
“We need to be asking if putting all our eggs in one basket is wise when the basket is more sensitive,” said Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, assistant professor of applied economics and management at Cornell University.
A new study in which Ortiz-Balboa participated finds that Midwest agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather shocks because the region has become more reliant on a handful of crops.
The study’s key takeaway: “We find that agriculture is growing more sensitive to climate in Midwestern states for two distinct but compounding reasons: a rising climatic sensitivity of nonirrigated cereal and oilseed crops and a growing specialization in crop production.
“In contrast, other regions specialize in less climate-sensitive production such as irrigated specialty crops or livestock. Results suggest that reducing vulnerability to climate change should consider the role of policies in inducing regional specialization.”
The study evaluated state-level measures of ag productivity that capture how inputs, including seed, fertilizer, equipment and herbicides, are converted into economic outputs. The study compared that information against climate data from 1960 through 2004 to see what happens if weather is treated as an additional input. The study ended at 2004 because key U.S. Department of Agriculture data stopped being available, Ortiz-Bobea said.
The study found that, in the 1960s and ’70s, a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature during the summer resulted in an 11 percent drop in productivity. But after 1983, the same rise in temperature caused productivity to drop 29 percent.
We paused not only at the risk posed to crops by increased temperatures, but at the implication that irrigation might minimize the impact. It's important to look at the consequences of increased irrigation on groundwater and aquifers.
Josephine Marcotty's recent article, Baby’s death sparks water safety fight; Small-town Wisconsin residents take on state and powerful ag industry in the Star Tribune, reveals a glimpse of what those consequences might be in some areas. She reports:
The Central Sands region in the green heart of Wisconsin is prized for its water: dozens of small, sandy-bottomed lakes, the Wisconsin River and hundreds of miles of trout streams.
But the region has also become a flash point in the fights over water erupting throughout the Upper Midwest. In a part of the country where there’s always been more than enough water to go around for fishing, swimming, drinking and farming, how do you share it and protect it in the face of rising demand?
In central Wisconsin, the conflict is driven largely by the proliferation of giant irrigation rigs that arc over mile after mile of flat farm fields. They make this one of the nation’s most productive farm states, with $88 billion a year in sales from food and food processing.
To many neighbors, however, they create an untenable drain on water that is tearing communities apart.
People in the Village of Plover, Wis., saw their favorite trout stream dry up, leaving thousands of dead fish for the raccoons. Nearby, recreational lakes ringed with summer homes have periodically shriveled into wetlands over the past 15 years, depressing property values and pitting lakeshore owners against the state government in a lawsuit over the meaning of public trust.
And Celina Stewart, a young mother in the tiny town of Nekoosa, lost an infant daughter to a fatal brain malformation that has been associated with high levels of nitrate, a fertilizer byproduct found in the community’s drinking water. Her tragedy led to a community well testing program this year, which found that 40 percent of the homes had nitrate concentrations that, like hers, were far above the legal limit.
“We should be able to go to our faucet and turn it on and safely drink water from our well and not worry about getting sick or dying,” Stewart wrote to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR).
The Armenia Growers Coalition, a local farm group that includes the dairy, has offered to buy bottled water for neighbors or install home filtration systems, said spokesman Tim Huffcutt. It’s also participating in a long-term investigation into solutions with state, federal and local health officials.
Huffcutt said that on land that has been farmed for decades, “there is significant likelihood that legacy agricultural practices going back as far as the 1950s contributed to elevated nitrate levels.”
Nonetheless, in late November more than 80 residents with contaminated wells sued Central Sands Dairy and its owner, Wysocki Produce Farm, Inc. “They are pretty much at the end of their rope,” said Breanne Snapp, an attorney who represents Stewart and others from the area.
Read the rest at the Star Tribune.
Photo: Corn needs water to grow. Photo via MIT News.
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