On Sunday, Stephen Groves and Jonathan J. Cooper of the Associated Press reported in Noem’s balancing act: Big ambitions, South Dakota reelection:
. . .If Noem has ambitions beyond her state, she must first take care of political business back home: winning a second term in November.
Many expected her to cruise to victory in a Republican-dominated state against a Democratic opponent without statewide experience. But her frequent out-of-state travels, as well as recent ethics stumbles, have given Democrats license to dream of an upset — or at least making the race close enough to raise questions about Noem’s viability on a bigger stage.
Drey Samuelson, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state, said few people gave Democratic state Rep. Jamie Smith much of a chance when he announced his campaign for governor, given Smith’s lack of name recognition and Noem’s massive fundraising advantage. Republicans have almost doubled Democrats on voter rolls and Smith’s highest political experience was leading House Democrats — a beleaguered band that has dwindled to eight members.
But Smith has run a shrewd race by seeking to turn Noem’s ambition against her, Samuelson said.
“Everyone I talk to, both Republicans and Democrats, believes that he has closed the gap on her,” he said.
Recent polling suggests there's something to that. At the Sioux Falls Argus Leader, Annie Todd reports in SDSU Poll shows race for governor's seat is heating up between Kristi Noem, Jamie Smith:
The race over who will live in the Governor's Mansion is tightening less than four weeks from the Nov. 8 election, according to a poll released from South Dakota State University on Tuesday.
Gov. Kristi Noem, who's running for her second term, against Democratic challenger Rep. Jamie Smith is leading the race 45% to 41%, with a margin of error of 4%, according to the SDSU Poll, which is part of the School of American and Global Studies at the university in Brookings. The poll also states 14% of voters have not yet decided.
The 4% lead is "roughly the same difference as in the 2018 election," when Noem faced Democratic challenger Billie Sutton, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 565 registered South Dakotan voters between Sept. 28 and Oct. 10, according to the SDSU Poll.
"We've got ourselves a tight race, I wouldn't say a statistical tie," said David Wiltse, the director of the SDSU Poll, on Tuesday in an interview with "In the Moment," a daily South Dakota Public Broadcasting show.
Wiltse told the Argus Leader on Tuesday it's important to focus on the undecided voters who "are still showing some hesitation as to who they're going to vote for."
"For the most part, these people are probably not truly undecided and a large chunk of these folks are Republicans," Wiltse said. "There's more than twice as many undecided Republicans as there are Democrats, which tells us that we're probably going to see a healthier majority of those undecided voters break towards the Republicans."
He added the poll is only a snapshot of how voters feel in the moment.
Previously, preliminary numbers on Oct. 5 from the SDSU Poll showed the race between Noem and Smith was within a few points, with Noem ahead at 45% and Smith trailing at 42%.
Those numbers have essentially been confirmed by Tuesday's poll results. . . .
The SDSU Poll also broke down preferences for the candidates based on registered voter's gender.
Nearly half of women said they were supportive of Smith, while a bit over half of men said they were supportive of Noem, according to the poll. But, 12% of both men and women said they weren't sure what their candidate preference was.
National trends have shown women prefer Democrats, according to the poll.
The last day to register to vote is Oct. 24.
So far, the best summary of the Noem campaign's response to the polling is Cory Allen Heidelberger's Noem: SDSU Sucks at Polling! at Dakota Free Press.
Noem has also fibbed about Smith's fundraising, as Bluestem noted in Positive pants on fire: Democratic opponent Jamie Smith corrects Noem's really bad math.
The poor-mouth-campaign crying governor isn't going to cease from fundraising out of state, no matter how close the polls are. At the Mitchell Republic, Jason Harward noted Gov. Kristi Noem resumes travels less than one month after back surgery. And Keloland reported a Florida couple is hosting high dollar Noem fundraiser on Friday, October 14.
Perhaps the governor might make it home for the traditional pheasant opener on October 15; we don't know if she were able to get back for the resident opener last weekend. The Governor's pheasant hunt? We'll wait for news of it.
Related posts
- After swift recovery from spinal surgery, Noem heads out for bright lights, big bucks in AZ & FL
- Positive pants on fire: Noem fibs about policy, keeps Corey Lewandowski at her side in DC
- A tale of two states, two sales taxes: Jensen and Noem share very different campaign promises
- What the hell was that? Governor Kristi Noem butt of Saturday Night Live cold opening schtick
- Jamie Smith will focus on South Dakota and shake hands with your dog while he's at it.
Photo: Jamie Smith marching in the homecoming parade for Gypsy Days - Northern State University.Via Facebook.
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