There will be recounts in two close races in the 37-37 deadlocked Minnesota House, a fact that's generating much attention, including some expect election denier anxiety on Minnesota's wingnut side.
The Forum News' capitol reporter Mary Murphy raises the question of a total tie in Minnesota Legislature could find itself in rare ‘double tie', pending the fate of Sen. Nicole Mitchell, DFL-Woodbury, who is facing charges related to a first-degree felony burglary charge for allegedly breaking into her stepmother’s home.
What are the odds the recount will change control of the House?
In Monday's Minnesota Reformer, data journalist Christopher Ingraham looked at the question in The Topline: How often do recounts change election results?
From the section of the Topline exploring that question:
Minnesota recounts virtually never change election outcomes
Two Minnesota House races are headed toward recounts in the coming weeks. In District 54A, provisional counts show DFL Rep. Brad Tabke with a 14-vote lead over GOP opponent Aaron Paul. And in 14B, DFL incumbent Dan Wolgamott is ahead of Republican challenger Sue Ek by 191 votes.
But the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library’s data on previous recounts shows that even a 14-vote margin is unlikely to be overturned.
The library has records of 96 legislative recounts going back to 1849, and says the list is likely incomplete.
Recent years’ recounts typically confirm the provisional counts, with no changes. When vote totals do shift, the number is usually in the single-digit range.
While the library doesn’t have precise numbers for every single contest, the most recent election in which the tally changed by more than 14 votes (the margin in the Tabke-Paul race) happened in 2002, when a recount added 26 votes to Republican Raymond Cox’s winning margin.
To find an election with initial results overturned by a recount you have to go back to 1986, when Carl Stich was initially declared victor over independent Republican Bernard Omann by 6 votes. The recount reversed that call, with a final margin of 48 votes in Omann’s favor.
Minnesota switched to all-electronic vote counting in 2006. Since then, recounts have typically only shifted totals in single-digit amounts, none of which have been enough to change the outcome of a race.
Photo: An election observer monitors two poll workers processing absentee ballots in the Milwaukee Election Commission warehouse on Aug. 13. Photo by Matt Vasilogambros/Stateline/ Minnesota Reformer.
Read the entire Topline article at the Minnesota Reformer.
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